Sign in to comment!

Hannity

Frank Luntz Breaks Down Latest Midterm Polling

This is a rush transcript from "Hannity," September 7, 2010. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

SEAN HANNTIY, HOST: So with the midterm elections just 56 days away, three new generic ballot polls show the GOP increasing its lead over the Democrats in record numbers and only one shows them in a tie.

Now according to the latest CNN poll, the GOP leads the Democrats 52- 45. That's up three points from just last month. The latest Rasmussen poll has Republicans up by 12 points leading 48-36. And a new ABC/Washington Post poll has likely voters favoring Republican candidates over their Democratic counterparts 53-40. And this 13-point lead marks the widest GOP margin on record for the poll since 1981.

So what are the Democrats to do? Well, maybe they'll fall back on their favorite blame Bush line. But a new poll shows that may not work either because Americans don't think the former president's economic policies are making a return. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows 58 percent don't think a Republican control congress will return to Bush's economic policies.

Yet there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for Democrats. Gallup has them tied with the GOP on the generic ballot question at 46 percent.

And here to make sense of all of these numbers is pollster, president of "The Word Doctors," the one and only Frank Luntz. Frank, welcome back.

FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER: Thank you, Sean. You know, I'm looking at the polling numbers that you walked through. And what they are not talking about, what viewers can't see at home is the demographic break down.

Barack Obama is still popular among 18 to 29-year-olds -- the people would put them into office -- and yet they have significantly less likely attitude about voting. They're much less interested in politics. Conversely the people who are most angry with President Obama are voters age 60 and older. You have to beat them away with a stick, they are going to vote. That's going to make this spread even wider.

HANNITY: Yes, add two other factors to that, intensity is obviously with the conservatives and Republicans. Secondly, he's lost independents in record numbers, as we saw in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey. Is there any way he can get those voters back?

LUNTZ: The problem is that he's asking his congressional leadership to bring those voters back and let's face it, Nancy Pelosi is one of the most unpopular political figures across the spectrum. But particularly among independents because she is seen as so partisan, so ideological and so out of the political mainstream and the challenge for the Democrats is quite frankly not just to run away from Barack Obama. It's Nancy Pelosi that so many Americans are sending a message to. That so many Americans are fed up with.

HANNITY: You know, but what do you think? I'd be negligent if I didn't ask you the question, the president saying that critics talk about me like a dog, and by the way, that wasn't in my teleprompter. I heard that yesterday and I'm thinking what is the president thinking by, you know, being so sensitive?

LUNTZ: Well, I'll tell you something. As tough as critics have been against Barack Obama, they were far, far tougher against George W. Bush.

They would go to events. They would throw things. They would interrupt. They would disrupt to the point where President Bush was in some cases, there was a challenge to get through the speech. You don't see that with Barack Obama's events and also take a look at parts of the country that are turning against this administration and the Democratic Party. Pennsylvania, Ohio, I know you've got an ad there, Ohio is one of the key bellwether states and they've had it with the Democratic Party.

HANNITY: Let's go to that -- Kasich has pulled ahead by a significant margin as is Rob Portman. Let's run this Kasich ad attacking Governor Strickland.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: One thousand two hundred and fifty jobs, gone.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: NCR?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, Strickland couldn't hold on to them. Moved to Georgia.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Inaudible) moved jobs there too.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We lost 400,000 jobs under Strickland.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Got to be a world record.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Strickland doesn't get the jobs done.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I wonder when ours go?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: Pretty high marks both sides.

LUNTZ: Sean, it's unprecedented. That's a Republican Governors Association ad against Ted Strickland. You never see a negative ad score so well among Republicans and Democrats alike.

It didn't matter. They listened to the ad. That last sentence, I wonder when ours will go? It's something that every American is thinking right now. When is it going to be my job on the line despite a trillion dollars of stimulus, despite bailouts of these companies --

HANNITY: And one in 10 Americans are risking foreclosure.

All right, because of the constraints of time, I don't want to cut you off here.

I just mentioned that there are 34 Democrats running ads against Pelosi, Obama, against health care, no Democrat that voted for Obamacare is running an ad saying I voted for Obamacare, I voted for the stimulus. Let's run this ad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Page 30 of the health care bill, a government committee will decide what treatments you get. Page 58, the government will have real-time access to individual's finances. Page 59, government will have direct access to bank accounts for electronic funds transfer. This is real. This is now. Fight back in November 2010.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: Low numbers.

LUNTZ: Lower numbers, Sean, because it was so dramatic. It was so powerful, it's frightening. Now here's something the viewers should understand. What is in that ad is accurate. It's true. It gives the page number and the specifics.

When we ask people why did you dial it so low? They were so frightened. Fifty six days to go, Sean, the reason why Democrats aren't talking about health care is because of that ad. They're frightened about the details that are in the legislation.

HANNITY: Well, and that's why I think Republicans need to run on repealing it. But I go back to what we said in the last segment here is, 2/3 of the nation in this poll say they think America is in decline. That ought to be the biggest warning sign to every politician.

LUNTZ: And I want to make an offer to the viewers. If they want to dial these ads, if they want to get involved and participate one of your focus groups, all they have to do is go to the web site theworddoctors.com. Theworddoctors.com. They can sign up, because we are going to be in a city near you at some point in the next 56 days.

HANNITY: All right, Frank Luntz. We'll be going through these ads in the days to come.

Content and Programming Copyright 2010 Fox News Network, Inc. Copyright 2010 Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.