So now they're all saying Social Security reform won't happen. Democrats are saying it. A lot of Republicans are even saying it. Virtually all reporters I talk to are saying it. Trouble is, President Bush isn't saying it. And his guru, Karl Rove, certainly isn't saying it.
So what to make of it?
I know it's swimming against the consensus tide, but I think we will get Social Security reform. It's not just because I talked to Rove and he sounds so convincing; it's because I've looked at history and it sounds even more convincing — recent history, like early 2001. This president is pushing a huge tax cut almost no one thinks he'll get through. He gets it through!
Not so recent history, like early 1981, another president named Reagan pushed a drastic reduction in all tax rates most insisted would never get done. They got done.
And really not-so-recent history, like 1962, a Democratic president named Kennedy promised to land a man on the moon before that decade was out. Many laughed — until we did just that on July 20, 1969.
My point is: The crowd often gets it wrong.
The same crowd that said a peanut farmer from Georgia could never get elected president. Or that an actor from California could never succeed him.
History proves right again and again.
What do you think?
The consensus is proved wrong again and again.
I'm dumb enough to admit I have no idea what Social Security reform will look like.
But I'm smart enough to know there will be some sort of reform to look at.
Watch Neil Cavuto weekdays at 4 p.m. ET on "Your World with Cavuto" and send your comments to firstname.lastname@example.org