DISCLAIMER: THE FOLLOWING "Cashin' In Recap" CONTAINS STRONG OPINIONS WHICH ARE NOT A REFLECTION OF THE OPINIONS OF FOX NEWS AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS INVESTMENT ADVICE WHEN MAKING PERSONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IT IS FOX NEWS' POLICY THAT CONTRIBUTORS DISCLOSE POSITIONS THEY HOLD IN STOCKS THEY DISCUSS, THOUGH POSITIONS MAY CHANGE. READERS OF "Cashin' In Recap" MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS.
Where is he? Saddam Hussein is still at large and behind many of the deadly attacks on our troops in Iraq.
Also still at large: that elusive 10,000 mark on the Dow. The last time it closed above 10,000 was May 24, 2002.
The daily attacks are weighing on the entire nation – including Wall Street. How much would change if Saddam was captured or killed?
Fox Military Analyst Major Bob Bevelacqua, who has just returned from a trip to Iraq, says that a lot would change if we capture Saddam. Until Saddam is captured, Bevelacqua says Iraqis will be reluctant to come to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) with information about Saddam, because they believe he can come back to power (especially if a Democrat wins the White House and decides to pull out of Iraq). And if that happens, Saddam will hold those people accountable. He says all the reward money we have on Saddam’s head will do us no good because there have been too many problems already with the CPA in terms of trust. Capturing Saddam would go a long way toward a lasting democracy in Iraq. But he doesn’t think we are close to getting Saddam yet.
Jonas Max Ferris of Maxfunds.com says he’s very scared by the points the Major makes, and he thinks investors are also showing signs of trepidation. He says the market has priced in many of the good things that have been happening, but getting Saddam is key for the market to get above 10,000. There is fear and uncertainty since Saddam is still out there, and the market is all about signs; Saddam’s capture would be a sign that we are wining the war on terror, and we need that sign for confidence to return to the market.
Dagen McDowell of Fox Business says the market cares most about what is happening here in America, and not what is happening in Iraq. She says we can get to 10,000 on the Dow without capturing Saddam, especially if “Santa Claus” comes to town (meaning a lot of shopping during this holiday season).
Charles Payne of Wall Street Strategies say what we need is stability. It would great to go “one or two weeks without terrorist attacks,” especially on American soldiers. He doesn’t think that any good news has been factored into the market, but does think that terrorism weighs on stocks, so there is a negative atmosphere out there. He does see 10,000 as being an important technical level, and does point out that when the market dropped after 9/11, it only took until the spring for the Dow to get back to 10,000.
Jonathan Hoenig of Capitalistpig Asset Management says that Dow 10,000 is a “large number”, but it’s just a number, and he doesn’t think it matters whether we get to it by capturing Saddam or otherwise. He’s not betting on the Dow because he says he sees trends that are larger than the Dow right now, particularly the weak dollar.
Wayne Rogers of Wayne Rogers & Co says that Saddam isn’t as meaningful as we think. (He mentions Izzat Ibraham as being the main planner of current terrorist attacks in Iraq.) He says Saddam is only a symbol, and he believes there are going to be terrorist attacks with or without Saddam, so his capture isn’t crucial to the market.
Happy Holiday Stock$
Shop ‘til we drop! It’s what most of us will be doing from now until the end of December. So why not own the stocks that are set to ring in the holiday spirit with some profits!
Grupo Elektra (EKT)
Friday's close (11-21-03): $20.35
Jonathan says the Mexican-based electronics retailer has stores throughout that country and Latin America. He believes the company will benefit during the holiday season. This again is playing off Jonathan’s strategy of looking outside the U.S for strong foreign plays. Jonathan owns shares in EKT. Charles thinks this is a pretty good stock that should do well in the holiday season. Wayne likes this play (he notes that the company also owns a bank).
Circuit City (CC)
Friday's close (11-22-03): $12.40
Charles prefers to look at domestic retailers, and thinks that Circuit City, the “poor cousin” to Best Buy, has made up for some past mistakes and will continue to be a success this year. Wayne likes this stock. Jonathan also thinks this is a strong stock.
Best Buy (BBY)
Friday's close (11-21-03): $58.24
Wayne thinks that this company will give you the best pop in the coming holiday shopping season. He says the company has a good number of retail outlets in operation throughout the country, which will help it do well. Jonathan agrees this is a strong stock.
Stock Of The Week!
What’s the stock to buy on Monday morning?
Jonathan says it’s the Aberdeeb Asia-Pacific Income Fund (FAX). He says it’s going up this week. Jonathan owns shares in FAX and has long recommended the stock. He says that right now the biggest trend is the weak U.S. dollar, and this foreign bond fund will benefit directly from this weakness. Jonas disagrees. He says that this stock has become a “herd” investment that people are starting to flock to, and that is a sign that its run is over. Wayne likes this play, and reminds us that Jonathan recommended a stock called Goldcorp (GG) that Wayne bought and still owns, and has made a killing on it. Why is this important? Because Jonas didn’t like that play either! Wayne thinks the same thing can happen with FAX (in the short-term). Dagen thinks there are better ways to play the weak dollar. She says FAX is too risky.
Cashin’ In Challenge
We took a quick look at the standings in the $10,000 “Cashin’ In Challenge”. To find out who is ahead, check out the website at: www.foxnews.comchallenge.
Charles, Jonathan and Wayne answered some of your questions.
Question #1: “My new broker says I should sell all my mutual funds and buy stocks or ETFs due to lower costs. What do you say?”
Charles thinks this is good advice; he has never been a fan of mutual funds, calling them a “prevent defense” investment (playing not to lose, as opposed to playing to win). He says you should own something to make money, not to be diverse. ETFs are a much better way to go.
Question #2: “Berkshire Hathaway (BRKb) has yielded fabulous performance, but has under performed the market. Why?
Wayne has always liked Berkshire Hathaway. He says now might not be the best time to buy it, but on pullbacks, you should buy it because it is an asset-building company. Jonathan thinks that Berkshire Hathaway is a good buy right now, and, he points out, if you own the “B” shares, you can go to the annual meeting, which he calls the “Woodstock of capitalism”.
Question #3: “I bought Corning (GLW) at $1.50? It's trading over $10 now. Should I sell?”
Jonathan says most people worry too much about the profits, and not enough about losses. If the stock has grown to be a big part of your portfolio, then take some money off the table. If it hasn’t, then put in a stop-loss order and let the market take you out. Charles thinks there is room to grow in this one. Wayne agrees with both Charles and Jonathan.
Question #4: “Did I miss the run on Cisco (CSCO)? Is it a good buy, or is it 'good-bye'?”
Wayne likes Cisco (he owns the stock). He’s not too sure about its immediate upside potential, but still thinks it is a great company. Charles thinks it’s a hold, but that there is upside left here. Jonathan feels that Cisco isn’t the place for the next big move. He’s not “anti-Cisco”, but it’s not his choice for new money.