This is a partial transcript from Your World with Neil Cavuto, October 24, 2003, that was edited for clarity.
Watch Your World w/Cavuto weekdays at 4 p.m. and 1 a.m. ET.
TERRY KEENAN, GUEST HOST: A debate is heating up in the business community as the number of tech jobs are back on the rise.
The U.S. recently limited the number of visas being issued to foreign workers. But is this visa cutback going to be a good thing for American workers?
Joining me now, chief economist with Ecobest, Bob Brusca. Also with us today, Jeff Taylor, founder of Monster.com, who says job listings are definitely picking up.
And welcome to you both.
Jeff, let me start with you. You’re seeing an increase on your Web site. Is this visa issue going to be a problem, or are we anywhere near close to a job crunch?
JEFF TAYLOR, MONSTER.COM FOUNDER: I think especially in tech area. We’ve been actually down for a couple years. So any news is good news.
In the hardware area, which has been quite sensitive, we’re up 33 percent month over month from August, and all of our job postings are up 19 percent over the last six months.
So small good news is the beginnings, I think, of recovery.
KEENAN: Yes, I mean the limiting of these H1-B visas -- is it a problem? I mean are companies going to be deprived of the best and the brightest from around the world?
TAYLOR: I think, right now, based on here in Boston where Monster’s headquarters is, you see a lot of networking groups, and these aren’t your typical unemployed professionals. These are knowledge workers, a lot of programmers, and a lot of people that work in the technology area.
So I think we’ve got some people out of work, nine million to be exact, that really need jobs. So I think it’s a good first push right here in the United States.
KEENAN: And you agree, Bob?
BOB BRUSCA, ECOBEST CHIEF ECONOMIST: Yes, I think it’s going to be a long time before we see any tightness appear in the economy because of this. I think there’s plenty of opportunity to constrict this inflow of visas and to allow some American workers to take advantage of some of the job opportunities here.
KEENAN: Yes, Bob. I mean is it a bigger problem that a lot of these U.S. high-tech jobs are moving overseas rather than overseas workers coming here?
BRUSCA: Well, there are those two aspects, and then there’s the aspect of using the Internet to have the workers stay there and do the work that’s still here. So there are a lot of different ways that competition is able to intrude on the U.S. job market, and it’s just made the world a lot more complicated place to be.
And it’s not just for tech workers. There’s all kinds of workers. I’m sure that a lot of people have picked up their telephone to get their information and found that they have somebody with an accent talking to them and they’re probably in another country.
KEENAN: Yes, the flip side of globalization.
Jeff, broadening out from just the high-tech arena right now, this week, we had the Treasury secretary saying that he thinks we’re going to see 200,000 new jobs created every month between now and Election Day next year. Are you seeing that sort of trend?
TAYLOR: I think what we’re seeing sales, No. 1 position on Monster. Health care that was really nowhere two, three years ago, now the number two posting area on Monster. I think you’re seeing new areas in the economy that are really boosting jobs.
You know, if we can get the technology sector to kick back in a little bit, I think it’s a nice story across the board.
KEENAN: And a nice story for the White House if they could get it, Bob. But we really haven’t seen that job creation, and we’re nowhere near the millions of jobs that we should have created since the recession ended. Is that going to start to turnaround significantly?
BRUSCA: It isn’t showing signs yet. I’m glad to see that monster has got some real good business going, but they’re only one of the portals, only one of the places, and, if you look at, say, help wanted advertising, which is an old index of advertising for jobs, it’s near its cycle low. There’s really nothing happening there.
So, when you take a look at the whole economy, rather than maybe something a little bit more focused on tech and new that a lot of people don’t know about, what you see is that advertising isn’t there, the jobs aren’t there. It’s still a pretty weak economy.
KEENAN: So we’ve gone from maybe job-loss recovery to just a job-less recovery?
BRUSCA: Well, things have stabilized. I hope that we’ve moved into a period of some growth. But the best we can say is that things appear to have stabilized.
KEENAN: And, Jeff, what would you be looking for going forward to really get you excited about the job market?
TAYLOR: Well, there’s a couple things. I think when you talk about the jobless recovery, you tend to talk about the Fortune 1,000, and they’re really being rewarded for being conservative right now.
I look to the new-new thing. It’s going to be the venture capital money that gets put to work. It’s the new companies that in the early ‘90s created a lot of the jobs and really gave us the boost to get things going. I’m going to be looking for that over the next few months.
KEENAN: All right.
TAYLOR: One other comment. You’ve got 5 million people that are working part-time that really would like to be working full-time. So not only do you have nine-million people out of work, but you’ve got some people doing jobs that I think they’re going to be looking to retarget and focus on their careers, and I think this is one of the things you’re going to be seeing over the next 18 to 24 months this real movement.
KEENAN: All right. Good point. We’re going to have to leave it there.
Thanks to Jeff Taylor and Bob Brusca.
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