Who's going to Super Tuesday? That is the subject of this evening's "Talking Points Memo."
With no money and no events scheduled in Florida, it's clear Fred Thompson is out of the race. We expect the senator to endorse his friend John McCain, but that's just a guess.
John Edwards, running on the narcissistic ticket, will probably continue through South Carolina. The Democrat vote there is next Saturday. Of course, Edwards has no chance.
The polls say Senator Obama is ahead of Senator Clinton in South Carolina. But again, Super Tuesday will eclipse that with 22 states voting.
Now my guess is after February 5 — Super Tuesday — Clinton, Obama, McCain, Romney and Giuliani will still be viable candidates. But what about Huckabee, you ask?
Well, the governor has two problems. No. 1, money. If he doesn't win Florida, he will not be able to buy TV time in California, New York and other states because that costs a ton. Secondly, most of Huckabee's support remains religion based, and Super Tuesday is a secular situation. But I've been wrong about Governor Huckabee before, so keep that in mind.
Rudy Giuliani must finish first or a close second in Florida to continue. And again, it comes down to money. The mayor is spending all he has in the Sunshine State. Poor showing there dooms him.
John McCain is also low on cash. But his appeal in states like California and New York is strong. So we expect him to forge ahead.
Governor Romney has enough money to continue through to the convention in September.
Now even though I correctly picked the Patriots and Giants to go to the Super Bowl, I cannot yet predict the presidential nominees. There are simply too many variables. It's not about skill. It's about perception and cash.
I kind of wish politics was more like football: lining up in the cold, going mano a mano, the final score based on skill. But that is not in play in the presidential race. There is a cold wind blowing, but nobody knows which way.
And that's "The Memo."
Pinheads & Patriots
As you may know, "The Factor" is very supportive of American law enforcement, because they're generally brave and honest people.
In Ames, Iowa, two police officers were confronted with a burning car and a guy unconscious inside. Of course, the car could have blown up at any time.
Officers Jeff Brinkley and Clint Hertz went into the car, grabbed 21-year-old Justin Hallberg out of there saving his life. Hallberg is now recovering.
The officers, of course, are patriots, as are most police officers.
On the pinhead front, you may remember actress Charlize Theron talking about the Iraq war.
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CHARLIZE THERON, ACTRESS: And I think the thing that upsets me the most was the manipulation that our government did towards our people in manipulating them to believe that, if they weren't for the war, they weren't patriotic.
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Well, now it seems Ms. Theron is a little confused about geography. The 32-year-old actress apparently told the press that she had a great time in Budapest, which is swell, except she was really in Istanbul.
Having been to both cities, there's really no similarity. However, jet leg can make people confused. But this may be a case where Miss Theron is a pinhead.
— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads and Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the FOX News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: firstname.lastname@example.org
Bill O'Reilly currently serves as the host of FOX News Channel's (FNC) The O'Reilly Factor (weekdays 8PM/ET), the most watched cable news show for the past 13 years. He joined the network in 1996 and is based in New York. Click here for more information on Bill O'Reilly.