By ,
Published January 13, 2015
Trying to read too much into any 2008 poll at this point, especially with respect to horserace numbers, is somewhat silly and a waste of time. But a recent FOX News poll does have some interesting tidbits in the internals asking about voters' general impressions on issues.
Again, I don't want to make too much of the numbers, only to point them out as more grist for the mill. Here are the numbers that have some relevance to Mitt Romney:
Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate who is a Mormon? Republicans only: More likely 8 percent (a lot more likely 4 percent, somewhat more likely 4 percent). Less likely 30 percent (a lot less likely 19 percent, somewhat less likely 11 percent). Not a major factor 59 percent.
Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate who has changed his or her position on the issue of abortion? Republicans only: More likely 16 percent (a lot more likely 6 percent, somewhat more likely 10 percent). Less likely 28 percent (a lot less likely 16 percent, somewhat less likely 12 percent). Not a major factor 39 percent.
And here are the numbers with some relevance to Rudy Giuliani:
Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate who is pro-choice on the issue of abortion? Republicans only: More likely 22 percent (a lot more likely 12 percent, somewhat more likely 10 percent). Less likely 46 percent (a lot less likely 36 percent, somewhat less likely 10 percent). Not a major factor 30 percent.
Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate who supports civil unions for gays and lesbians? Republicans only: More likely 8 percent (a lot more likely 5 percent, somewhat more likely 3 percent). Less likely 50 percent (a lot less likely 39 percent, somewhat less likely 11 percent). Not a major factor 38 percent.
Obviously, as a general proposition, the numbers show that between the two, Giuliani has the more significant obstacles to overcome. But we already knew that.
Nevertheless, Giuliani beats Arizona Sen. John McCain handily in a head to head match-up, 56 to 31. Twenty-four percent of Republicans say they would "definitely vote for" Rudy, 56 percent say they "might vote for" him, and 17 percent say they would "under no circumstances" vote for Giuliani. McCain's numbers are slightly worse: 13 percent "definitely vote for," 54 percent "might vote for," and 25 percent "under no circumstances" vote for.
The biggest red flag for Giuliani has to be that only 42 percent of Republicans surveyed correctly identified him as pro-choice. Twenty-one percent of Republican voters have it wrong and think Giuliani is pro-life, and another 36 percent of Republicans don't have a clue what his position on abortion. In other words, nearly six out of 10 registered Republican voters have yet to learn something about Giuliani which, we can infer from the first question on abortion, will make close to half of them either "somewhat" less likely or "a lot" less likely to vote for him. There's no doubt the same holds true of his position on civil unions for gays, and the Second Amendment as well.
In time we'll see if Rudy has the skill and the charisma to defuse these differences with the Republican base and also whether conservative Republicans are willing to cut Giuliani any slack on social issues out of deference to his superior leadership skills and his commitment to fighting the war against Islamic jihadists, which is the overriding issue for most Republican voters.
https://www.foxnews.com/story/running-the-republican-numbers-on-rudy