Why Bush Won Keys to Victory

Marriage: Eleven states adopted pro-marriage ballot initiatives this year, by an average of more than two-to-one. The issue energized evangelical voters, who flocked to the president’s side in far greater numbers than in 2000. For a round-up of the votes, click here.

Outreach: George W. Bush is the first Republican president to work consciously toward wooing black and Hispanic voters. He has some history in this regard. He doubled his percentages of black and Hispanic voters in his second election as Texas governor. He enjoyed similar success this year.

A peaceful election. Chart out the Conservative Revolution. Happiness and Ideal.

From Liberals from Massachusetts: It's always hard to tell about this, but it seems possible that the Ohio amendment banning same-sex marriage brought more religious conservatives to the polls, perhaps enough to make the difference -- or at least to contribute substantially to the difference -- in the close presidential race there. It's not certain; among other things, some speculate that this may have brought ought many black voters who are anti-same-sex-marriage but who vote Democratic.

Still, if that’s so, then it suggests that the Goodridge decision, by making people feel that traditional marriage rules are in jeopardy from courts, may have ended up costing (or helping cost) Kerry the election. And the decision may have had a similar effect not just in Ohio, but in other close states in which some voters associated Democrats with likely support for same-sex marriage, and assumed that Kerry appointees would be more likely than Bush appointees to implement Goodridge on the federal level.

Now, as I've blogged before, I'm tentatively in favor of allowing same-sex marriage; I would have voted against the Ohio ballot measure. And of course if one thinks that the Constitution really should be interpreted to ban opposite-sex-only marriage, then one may well support courts' deciding this, come what may. But I think that even supporters of same-sex marriage should recognize the possible political backlash that may come from such decisions being made by judges, based not on text or history, but on a moral argument (about the constitutional equality of same-sex and opposite-sex marriage) that faces broad, nationwide opposition.

Exit Polls in Daily Life: The apparent inaccuracy of the exit polls yesterday makes me wonder whether the phrase "exit poll" will now enter the American vernacular to mean "a quick impression that is probably wrong."

Close election: The electoral vote is certainly close, and turns on a close race in Ohio (though at this point it seems quite unlikely that Bush's 130,000 vote lead will be overcome). But the 51-48 popular vote margin, while far from a blowout, is larger than the 1976 Carter-Ford margin, or the 1968 Nixon-Humphrey margin plus of course the famously close 1960 and 2000 margins.
Clark County, Ohio moves toward the Republicans -- According to the Guardian in 2000 Clark County went 0.3% for Gore while Ohio went 3.9% for Bush, so it was 4.2% more Democratic than the rest of the state. In 2004 Clark County went for Bush by 2.4% over Kerry (compared to about 2.7% for Ohio in 2004).

So Clark County moved 3.9% toward the Republicans compared to the rest of the state.
Provisional Ballots in Ohio -- At 4am ET early Wednesday morning, this official list of the number of Ohio provisional ballots by county does not have anything listed for Cuyahoga County.

From http://jaycost.blogspot.com:

This is disgusting...

...what the MSM is doing.

Here is what is up. You have CNN, CBS, ABC and the AP calling Nevada for Bush, but not calling Ohio for Bush.

Meanwhile, you have NBC and Fox calling Ohio for Bush, but not calling Nevada for Bush.

All of this amounts to a cheap ploy by all parties to keep the race from being called. Why? Because Kedwards refuses to concede...this is unprecedented. The networks are bowing to a campaign.

You know why this is a cheap ploy? Because they are not doing the same thing in Pennsylvania. PA cast more votes than OH, and Kerry's margin of victory is less than Bush's margin in OH. But they sure as hell are keeping PA on Kerry's board.

Shame on them. Shame on all of them. What lousy coverage tonight (Fox's was atrocious!). What lousy exit polls, what stupid, slavish reliance on these exit polls in the early part of the evening. What generally inane babbling from start to finish. Nobody in the MSM had a single decent thing to say all year.

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http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/2004/battleground200411030349.asp
OHIO: REPORT FROM OHIO [Kathryn Jean Lopez 11/03 03:49 AM]

According to Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, There arequite a few more provisional ballots than 75,000. The only counts theyreceived on provisional ballots came in from 66 of Ohio's 88 counties. Most of the biggest counties, as you might imagine, are rather swamped with provisional ballots, and Blackwell said it would probably take until later Wednesday until those poll workers — who had their hands full processing a high turnout — get around to counting all of them and determining if they are valid. He refused to guess how many, but the running estimate among reporters in the state house tonight was about 175,000 or so.

11 days out of the election, when the deadline for overseas absentee ballots hits, the counties will finish double-checking the provisional ballots and count the overseas absentees (mostly military). A Bush victory will be quickly officially certified by then. But, of course, that is discounting a possible Democratic litigation blizzard, challenging the way counties determine the validity of provisional ballots. I expect, at least for a few days, for the Dems to try that strategy, unless they are called off by the Kerry people. And do we really think that will happen?

As an aside, Blackwell did not cover himself with glory tonight, at least in the eyes of reporters waiting for hours for any updates from him on what was going on. Even his flack refused to come up and give us any information, or even answer our basic election procedures questions while we were all working on deadline. Suddenly, we noticed on the line of television screens Blackwell hopping from network to network for about another hour. Finally, at about 1 a.m., he came in. The reporters were quite annoyed. (I was mildly annoyed. My deadline had passed, so Blackwell's comments wouldn't have made my story, but I took his snub as a basic lack of disrespect. At least send your flunkie up to answer questions).

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Don't Send 'Em Walking, Let Your Bumper Stickers Keep Talking

• So you want to recycle your presidential-election bumper stickers? Statistics prof Lisa Schaefer has a solution, at least for Democrats. Using anagram-generating software, she has turned the slogan "Kerry Edwards/A Stronger America/JohnKerry.com" into: "darK dry sEwer/Error Gets a Maniac/hornyJerK.com." But what does it all mean?(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20248-2004Nov2.html)

The National Fissure Remains Deep and Wide
By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll3nov03,1,725565.story?coll=la-home-headlines

IN OTHER ELECTION NEWS …

Clooney dad not headed to Washington
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 (UPI) -- Nick Clooney, father of actor George Clooney, has lost his race for U.S. Representative in Kentucky.
With 87 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Geoff Davis had received 55 percent of votes, compared to Clooney's 43 percent. CNN declared Davis the winner.
(http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/11020000aaa00816.upi&Sys=rmmiller&Fid=NATIONAL&Type=News&Filter=National%20News)

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Republicans Extend Decade of House Control
By JESSE J. HOLLAND
WASHINGTON (AP) - The power of incumbency and an advantageous GOP redistricting in Texas swept Republicans to another two years of control over the House of Representatives.
Virtually all sitting representatives in the 435-member House won re-election, leaving Speaker Dennis Hastert, Majority Leader Tom DeLay and their GOP majority firmly in charge.
(http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041103/D864E30O0.html)

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Republicans Expand Hold on Congress, Oust Daschle
By Thomas Ferraro
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republicans expanded their hold on Congress in Tuesday's elections and Democrat Tom Daschle became the first Senate leader in a half century to be voted out of office, according to network projections.
(http://reuters.myway.com/article/20041103/2004-11-03T140410Z_01_N02621995_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-ELECTION-CONGRESS-DC.html)

THUNE WINS
By KEVIN DOBBS, JON WALKER AND TERRY WOSTER
Late results clinch victory

John Thune emerged from a tumultuous and divisive race against Sen. Tom Daschle with a narrow but solid 51-49 percent advantage early today, ending the Senate minority leader's quarter-century run in Washington and giving Republicans their biggest Election Day victory outside of the presidential contest.

Thune led by about 9,000 votes at 3 a.m. today, with 99 percent of precincts reporting.
(http://www.argusleader.com/election/Wednesdayfeature.shtml)

2004 not the breakout year for youth vote after all
- SIOBHAN McDONOUGH, Associated Press Writer
Tuesday, November 2, 2004

This was not the breakout year for young voters that some had anticipated.

Fewer than one in 10 voters Tuesday were 18 to 24, about the same proportion of the electorate as in 2000, exit polls indicated. Still, with voter turnout expected to be higher overall, more young people appeared to have come out.

A vigorous push on college campuses by both parties and national mobilization drives had raised expectations that 2004 would be the year of the youth vote.

Exit polls indicated that young people who did vote were strongly supporting Democrat John Kerry over President Bush, while they were evenly split between Bush and Democrat Al Gore four years ago.

The exit polls were conducted for The Associated Press by Edison.
(http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/11/02/politics2059EST0779.DTL)

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BWAA HA HA HA HA HA HA! [Jonah Goldberg]
Look I don't know what the final tally will be. But it's now clear that the youth vote just didn't show. The liberal blogosphere is grumpy and introspective about it. I love it for reasons I will be writing about for months to come. The cult of the youth voter remains, once again, the most absurd, bogus, childish, romantic and misguided joke of liberal American politics. Period. (http://nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_02_corner-archive.asp#044781)

Thank You, Arlen
We reelected the worst Republican Senator, and still lost Pennsylvania.
http://nationalreview.com/carney/carney200411031005.asp

Barone:
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneweb/mb_041103.htm

Rosett on bin Losin’: http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/cRosett/?id=110005840


 

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