Battleground Polls and Tip Sheet

This is a partial transcript from "The Beltway Boys," August 7, 2004, that has been edited for clarity.

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MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Let's take a look at this week's battleground polls. There were a lot of new ones, so we'll just go through the biggies.

We begin with Wisconsin (search). John Kerry has a 1-point lead there. Bush won that state by roughly 5,000 votes in 2000.

Kerry has a 5-point lead in Michigan (search). Gore won that state by the same margin in 2000.

In Pennsylvania (search), Kerry has opened up an 8-point lead. Al Gore won the Keystone State by 5 points in 2000.

President Bush continues to lead in Ohio (search). The latest poll has him up by 5 points. He won that state by 4 in 2000.

And finally, in Iowa (search), where both Bush and Kerry visited this week, Kerry has a narrow 2-point lead. Gore won that state by just 1 point.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: Yes, Ohio is interesting, because you will have one of those gay marriage referendums on the ballot in November. Bound to help Bush. OK.

Kerry picks up Iowa, bringing his electoral total, vote total, to 280Bush falls to 258, still very close but Kerry's ahead.

KONDRACKE: It's tip sheet time. Fred, with your permission, we begin.

BARNES: All right.

KONDRACKE: OK, Item No. 1, First Lady Laura Bush sets out on a two-day bus tour through the key battleground states. A recent poll in Newsweek shows that Laura Bush has a 20-point lead over Teresa Heinz Kerry on the question of who would be the better first lady.

BARNES: It, it looks like Teresa didn't get much of a bounce out of the convention either when she gave that, I think, much-lamented speech. I mean, the truth is when she goes around and saying if Bush is reelected there'll be four more years of hell, people don't respond favorably to that. The truth is that at least as a campaign figure, she's not very charming.

KONDRACKE: You know, every time I watch Bush speech, he's always saying, Laura couldn't be here today. You know, I think, I think he would do himself some good ... if he brought his wife along.

BARNES: Right.

KONDRACKE: Item No. 2, Tuesday is primary day in Colorado. The race to watch is the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate seat. It pits beer magnate Peter Coors against Congressman Bob Schaffer.

BARNES: Yes, it looks like Coors will win. He'll be a strong candidate. But he, he'll be the underdog, and it may be a Democratic pickup in that state.

KONDRACKE: Now, if there's a Democratic pickup ... in a state like Colorado ... what does that do to your theory about a Republican realignment in the country?

BARNES: Well, I think Republicans will still have control of the Senate for another two years, Mort... proving once again that the realignment has occurred.

KONDRACKE: Just thought I'd check with you...

BARNES: Yes, I know, yes, I know.

KONDRACKE: ... to see if you're still sticking with it.

Item No. 3, there's a Republican runoff with Tuesday in the Eighth District of Georgia. That's a race between former White House aide Dylan Glenn, who's African-American, and state representative...


KONDRACKE: ... Lynn Westmoreland.

BARNES: Well, if Lynn wins that, it's a Republican seat he'll win, and that will prove more realignment, because you will have a black Republican member of the House of Representatives.

KONDRACKE: Dylan Glenn has been running for years and years. I...

BARNES: ... he's not that old.

KONDRACKE: ... I, be, be nice to see him win something.

Item No. 4, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Tuesday.

BARNES: Shouldn't, though, because of the weakening job growth situation.

KONDRACKE: You know, Alan Greenspan is blamed for costing Bush One ... his, his ... presidency.


KONDRACKE: If he raises interest rates ... I don't know if he's doing Bush Two any favor.


KONDRACKE: Item No. 5, the Summer Olympic Games begin in Athens, Greece, next week.

BARNES: You know, the Olympics are great, but I hope the Greeks can get the security situation together. To be honest, I would not much want to be an American or an Israeli athlete in Greece. They're terrible in, in dealing with terrorism, and they're anti-American.

KONDRACKE: Yes, if we can win medals, that's fine.


KONDRACKE: Get them home safe ...that's the important thing.

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