DISCLAIMER: THE FOLLOWING "Bulls & Bears Recap" CONTAINS STRONG OPINIONS WHICH ARE NOT A REFLECTION OF THE OPINIONS OF FOX NEWS AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS INVESTMENT ADVICE WHEN MAKING PERSONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IT IS FOX NEWS' POLICY THAT CONTRIBUTORS DISCLOSE POSITIONS THEY HOLD IN STOCKS THEY DISCUSS, THOUGH POSITIONS MAY CHANGE. READERS OF "Bulls & Bears Recap" MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS.
Brenda was joined by: Gary B. Smith, RealMoney.com columnist; Pat Dorsey, director of stock research at Morningstar.com; Tobin Smith, founder and chairman of ChangeWave Research; Scott Bleier, president of HybridInvestors.com; and Dave Nelson, CEO of DC Nelson Asset Management.
Despite a couple sluggish days last week, the stock market is enjoying one of its best stretches in years. Since April 1st, the Dow has gained an impressive 23 percent and the Nasdaq is up an amazing 47 percent.
Dave thinks stocks will stay hot for rest of this year. He compared the market to a ship with a lot of momentum, with the money coming in acting as fuel. It is going to take a lot for it to stop going forward. He said if investors want to worry about something, they should worry about next year.
Tobin is not worried about next year. He said there are still a lot of people in denial about the improvements made in the economy. This is keeping a lot of money on the sidelines. But he thinks the economy has entered a terrific cycle where jobs and demand are growing and are creating more jobs and demand. So next year doesn’t worry him because the people who are still in denial will put their money into the market next year.
Pat said the big question is always, what is priced into the market. Last week there was great economic news, but stocks actually sold off a little bit on it. This indicated to him that this great news is already priced in. He does not think the upside is as great as some think.
Gary B. charted the Nasdaq over the past month. The key number on the chart to him was 1,967. (The Nasdaq closed on Friday at 1,970.) This was a spot of resistance. But since the “Nas” closed above it on Thursday and Friday, he thinks it will easily clear 2,000 and head to 2,100 by the end of the year.
Scott said momentum alone is not enough to keep the market hot. He added that the easy money has been made and a lot of depressed stocks have moved up dramatically. But this means it will be much harder from here to make money. Investors will no longer be able to just throw money at stocks and make big profits.
It’s time for the Scoreboard again. First the good calls.
In March, Gary B. said Juniper Networks (JNPR) was going to double. Since then, the stock is up 111 percent. Now, Gary says, “If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.” He also added that it’s been in a steady uptrend since June and there’s no weakness to be seen. He thinks the only reason to sell the stock is if it breaks below this uptrend. Gary thinks Juniper will hit the mid $20s. (Juniper Networks closed on Friday at $18.70.)
Just a month ago, Tobin said Unova (UNA) would double. It’s already up 31 percent. Tobin still thinks Unova is one to bet on. He said by 2005, Wal-Mart (WMT) is going to require that every manufacturer put radio frequency I.D. tags, like the ones Unova makes, on its products. He thinks the stock will still head much higher. (Unova closed on Friday at $23.10.)
On March 15th, Pat said buy Altria Group (MO). Altria is up 46 percent in that time. He recommended holding on to the stock, but not to buy more. He said the company has legal risks and it’s best to buy the stock when those legal risks are in the headlines, because it’s cheap, not when it’s reporting positive news. He’d sell if it gets to $60. (Altria Group closed on Friday at $49.51.)
Also last March; Scott said Time Warner (TWX) was going up 50 percent. Since then, Time Warner is up 40 percent. Scott said it will get to 50 percent and thinks it will go even higher. He thinks it will reach $20. (Time Warner closed on Friday at $15.83.) He admits the company has had a lot of problems, but under all these problems, is a great company. He thinks investors will make a lot of money with this stock, if they buy it and hold on to it.
On December 28, 2002, Dave said to sell Eastman Kodak (EK). Picture perfect call. Eastman Kodak is down 27 percent. Dave couldn’t bring himself to recommend buying the stock, but he warned not to short it. (Eastman Kodak closed on Friday at $25.00.)
Next we looked at the calls the Bulls and Bears would like to forget!
In July, Scott said Amazon.com (AMZN) would be cut in half. But since then, Amazon.com is up 55 percent. He admitted he clearly underestimated the power of momentum of internet stocks and particularly this stock. However, he thinks Amazon.com is very overvalued and overpriced. (Amazon.com closed on Friday at $54.31.)
On August 2nd, Dave said buy AT&T (T). Bad call. AT&T is down 13 percent. He said that he was shocked that the judicial system let MCI come out of bankruptcy and thinks AT&T is dead money now and should be sold. (AT&T closed on Friday at $18.93.)
In January, Tobin said the Dow would beat the Nasdaq by 50 percent in 2003. He got it backwards. The Dow is up 14 percent and the Nasdaq is up 42 percent. He admits he was wrong and said he thought that as the dividend taxes cut, the Dow would really outperform the Nasdaq. He now thinks the Nasdaq will continue to outperform the Dow. (Dow closed on Friday at 9809.79 and Nasdaq closed on Friday at 1970.74.)
At the end of September, Pat said sell Intel (INTC). But Intel is up 24 percent. He admitted making a bad call, but Intel is too expensive to buy right now. In fact, he still wouldn’t buy the stock and would still sell it if he owned it. (Intel closed on Friday at $33.87.)
On the same day as Pat’s call, Gary B. said sell high-flying Chinese internet stocks, specifically SINA (SINA) and chinadotcom (CHINA). Since then, those two stocks are up. SINA is up 15 percent and chinadotcom is up 4 percent. He said he clearly underestimated the value of these stocks. He charted SINA and would buy it if it can close above $47. (SINA closed on Friday at $36.68 and chinadotcom closed on Friday at $9.07.)
Microsoft (MSFT) is dead money! Goes nowhere for the next year
Gary B's Prediction
"Cisco (CSCO) Kid" is back in town! Up 50 percent by May
Semiconductor sales soar; buy ProFunds Ultra Semiconductor (SMPIX)
Go wireless with Remec (REMC); going up 40 percent by spring
Fidelity Nat'l Financial (FNF) too cheap to pass up; gains 20 percent in a year