While few were surprised by the success of statewide Republican candidates in President Bush’s home state, the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Election Day survey of Texas voters reveals a demographic trend that could reverberate across the country in the 2004 presidential election.

The trend is this: a majority of Hispanic voters (56 percent) in Texas continue to identify themselves as Democrats, but ideologically they are beginning to look more and more like Republicans.  For example, a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas consider themselves conservative (54 percent) on political issues.  President Bush’s job approval rating is also informative -- 65 percent of Hispanic voters in Texas approve of Bush’s performance as president, compared to 35 percent of Democrats and 97 percent of Republicans.

When it came to casting ballots, only about two-thirds of Hispanic voters supported the Democratic statewide candidates, Ron Kirk for senate (66 percent) and Toney Sanchez for governor (60 percent).  This hardly qualifies as a solid voting block that can be expected to follow party or ethnic cues (Sanchez is Hispanic). 

Most Hispanic voters (50 percent) in Texas based their vote for Senator on the candidates’ positions on issues, compared to 42 percent of all voters.  Political party was the primary vote choice criteria for just 12 percent of Hispanic voters, compared to 19 percent of all voters.

There is something positive for both political parties in this analysis.  Democrats can take solace in the fact that a majority of Hispanics identify themselves as Democrats and majorities continue to vote for Democratic candidates.  Republicans can take comfort in the fact that a majority of Hispanics consider themselves conservative on most issues and they are making their vote choices based upon candidates’ positions on issues.  In the context of the next major event on the political horizon, however, Republicans clearly have the edge -- 51 percent of Hispanic voters in Texas say they will definitely vote to re-elect President Bush in 2004.

As part of our You Decide 2002 coverage, FOX News conducted Election Day polls in 10 states with key U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial races.

The polls were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corporation in the following states: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, South Dakota and Texas.

In each state, a random sample of approximately 900 voters and likely voters were contacted via telephone on Election Eve (Monday, Nov. 4) and throughout the day and early evening on Election Day (Tuesday, Nov. 5). The margin of error for each state poll is ± 3 percentage points.

Gender

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
(Female) 53% 45% 54%
(Male) 47% 40% 60%

Which ONE of the following issues mattered most in deciding your vote for Senator?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Taxes 13% 24% 76%
The economy 28% 56% 44%
Education 18% 63% 35%
Social security 7% 61% 36%
The war on terrorism 14% 18% 81%
Iraq 4% 24% 76%
Prescription drugs 5% 32% 68%
Health care/Health insurance 12% 59% 38%

Which one of the following factors mattered most in deciding your vote for Senator . . .

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Positions on national issues 23% 39% 61%
Positions on local or state issues 22% 54% 46%
Political party, or 20% 30% 69%
Personal character and experience 36% 46% 53%

As you may know, the outcome of the U.S. Senate race in Texas could determine which party, Democrats or Republicans, controls the U.S. Senate. How important was this factor in deciding your vote for Senator?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Very important 56% 43% 56%
Somewhat important 22% 43% 56%
Not too important 11% 44% 56%
Not important at all 12% 40% 59%

How important was the race or ethnicity of the candidates in deciding your vote for Senator?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Very important 22% 55% 44%
Somewhat important 13% 40% 60%
Not too important 9% 43% 55%
Not important at all 56% 38% 61%

How important was the candidates' involvement with issues related to Enron or other corporate scandals in deciding your vote for Senator?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Very important 22% 64% 36%
Somewhat important 24% 51% 48%
Not too important 19% 33% 67%
Not important at all 36% 31% 68%

Do you think John Cornyn's positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative or about right?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Too liberal 12% 78% 19%
Too conservative 20% 87% 13%
About right 68% 20% 80%

Do you think Ron Kirk's positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative or about right?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Too liberal 40% 6% 93%
Too conservative 5% 36% 64%
About right 56% 77% 23%

Which of the following factors mattered most in deciding your vote for Governor?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Positions on the issues 47% 38% 61%
Political party 23% 36% 64%
Personal character and experience 47% 38% 61%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Approve 77% 25% 74%
Disapprove 23% 89% 11%

In 2004, do you think you will vote to re-elect President Bush, vote against re-electing him or will you wait and see who's running against him?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Vote to re-elect 51% 17% 82%
Vote against re-elect 17% 89% 10%
Wait and see 32% 55% 44%

Which do you think should be the higher priority for the nation right now . . .

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
The economy and jobs, or 33% 69% 31%
Terrorism and national security 35% 24% 75%
(Combination/Depends) 31% 36% 64%

On a scale of excellent, good, only fair or poor, how would you rate the condition of the nation's economy?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Excellent 1% 64% 36%
Good 25% 15% 84%
Only fair 48% 41% 58%
Poor 26% 70% 29%

Which of the following do you think is more responsible for Texas's state budget problems?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
National policies 17% 58% 41%
State policies 39% 49% 51%
Business cycle 44% 34% 65%

Do you support or oppose U.S military action to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein from power?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Support 79% 32% 67%
Oppose 21% 79% 20%

In the 2000 election for president, did you vote for . . .

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Democrat Al Gore 29% 92% 7%
Republican George W. Bush 68% 19% 80%
Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, or 1% 89% 11%
Someone else 2% 55% 38%

Regardless of how you will/did vote, when you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Democrat 33% 87% 13%
Republican 48% 10% 90%
(Independent) 13% 51% 49%
(other) 6% 48% 48%

On most political matters, do you consider yourself . . .

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Liberal 26% 72% 26%
Conservative or 63% 27% 73%
(Moderate) 11% 63% 36%

Were you contacted either by phone or in person by any candidates, campaigns or political parties in the few months leading up to the election?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Yes 54% 41% 59%
No 46% 45% 54%

Which political party contacted you, Democrats or Republicans?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Democrats 31% 61% 38%
Republicans 35% 31% 69%
Other 34% 37% 62%
AREA      
East 24% 43% 56%
Dallas/Ft Worth 16% 46% 54%
Houston 14% 49% 49%
South 26% 41% 59%
West 20% 37% 62%

How long have you lived in Texas?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
less than 5 years 5% 43% 57%
6 to 10 years 4% 32% 64%
11 to 20 years 12% 50% 50%
more than 20 or all life 79% 42% 57%

Would you describe the area in which you live as...

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Urban 27% 43% 56%
Suburban 40% 43% 56%
Rural 34% 42% 57%

What was the last grade you completed in school?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Less than high school (1-11) 5% 74% 26%
Graduated high school 26% 55% 44%
Some college/Tech.Voc. 28% 35% 64%
Graduated college 32% 34% 66%
Graduate/professional school 10% 42% 58%

In which of the following categories is your age?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
18-30 15% 49% 50%
31-45 27% 41% 58%
46-64 39% 45% 55%
65 and over 20% 35% 64%

Has anyone in your household ever served in the U.S. military?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Yes, I have 17% 42% 57%
Yes, someone else has 30% 45% 54%
Yes, I have and someone else has 2% 69% 31%
No, no one has 52% 40% 59%

Do you belong to the NRA?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Yes 11% 24% 76%
No 88% 45% 54%

Does anyone in your household own a gun?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Yes, I own a gun 29% 40% 59%
Yes, someone else in household owns a gun 18% 33% 65%
Yes, I own a gun and someone else in the household o 10% 28% 72%
No, no one owns a gun 43% 54% 45%

What is your religion?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Catholic 21% 54% 45%
Protestant 30% 31% 68%
Jewish 0% 47% 53%
Muslim 0% 100%  
(Other Christian) 24% 42% 58%
None/Agnostic./Atheist 5% 39% 58%
(Other) 19% 45% 54%

Do you coDo you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement, also known as the religious right?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Yes 15% 38% 62%
No 60% 42% 58%

Are you of Mexican or other Hispanic descent?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
Mexican 8% 62% 38%
Other Hispanic 9% 68% 29%
No 83% 38% 62%

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
White, Caucasian 71% 30% 69%
African American, Black 7% 97% 3%
Latino, Hispanic 17% 66% 33%
Asian 1% 67% 33%
Or something else? 4% 52% 45%

Would you please tell me in which of the following categories I read is your total household income

TOTAL Dem.
Kirk
Rep.
Cornyn
$0-7,999 4% 75% 25%
$8-11,999 2% 84% 16%
$12-14,999 3% 58% 36%
$15-19,999 6% 64% 36%
$20-24,999 4% 52% 48%
$25-34,999 9% 48% 52%
$35-49,999 15% 45% 54%
$50,000 -74,999 21% 31% 69%
$75,000-99,999 18% 49% 50%
$100,000 and above 17% 30% 70%