If former Vice President Al Gore expects to win the presidency in 2004, he's got some work to do. As of today, a majority of all voters and even a plurality of Democratic voters think President Bush will win reelection.
The latest FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows that right now 60 percent of voters nationwide think President Bush will win reelection and 18 percent think the Democratic candidate will win (14 percent say it is too soon to say).
Clearly Republican voters are more inclined to think their candidate will win with 83 percent predicting Bush and only 5 percent saying the Democrat will prevail. Democrats are divided, but more expect a Bush reelection than expect their party's candidate to unseat him. Forty-three percent of Democrats think Bush will win in 2004, 32 percent think the Democratic candidate will win (18 percent say it is too soon to say). There are no gender differences here, but baby boomers and those with incomes of $100,000+ are the most unanimous in their prediction of a Bush win.
Al Gore fails to get the same level of endorsement from his party on the question of winning the Democratic Party nomination. Less than half (43 percent) of Democrats think Gore will win the party's nomination and 31 percent think another candidate will win.
Of course, it is important to remember that voters are stating their expectations in early 2002, and much can happen in the intervening two-plus years.
President Bush's current favorable rating is 75 percent (19 percent unfavorable). Similar to his job approval, Bush's personal favorable rating increased dramatically after the September terrorist attacks, and while both ratings remain high, they have been on a gradual decline in recent months.
Former Vice President Gore's favorable rating has also been on a gradual decline. Prior to the November 2000 elections, Gore's favorable was as high as 60 percent. Today, 44 percent rate Gore favorably and 44 percent unfavorably. Women give Gore a slightly higher favorable rating than men, but his best numbers come from the party faithful with 74 percent of Democrats rating him positively.
Polling was conducted by telephone April 16-17, 2002 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points.
I'm going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of someone, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE)
1. George W. Bush
|Favorable||Unfavorable||Can't Say||Never Heard|
|16-17 Apr 02||75%||19||6||-|
|2-3 Apr 02||79%||15||6||-|
|12-13 Feb 02||81%||13||6||-|
|30-31 Jan 02||75%||17||8||-|
|12-13 Dec 01||84%||12||4||-|
|14-15 Nov 01||83%||12||5||-|
|19-20 Sept 01||79%||13||8||-|
|22-23 Aug 01||56%||36||8||-|
2. Al Gore
|Favorable||Unfavorable||Can't say||Never Heard|
|16-17 Apr 02||44%||44||11||1|
|12-13 Dec 01||47%||40||13||-|
|22-23 Aug 01||51%||39||10||-|
|18-19 Apr 01||52%||37||11||-|
|10-11 Jan 01||55%||38||7||-|
|29-30 Nov 00||46%||48||6||-|
3. Recently there has been speculation that Al Gore will try for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. Based on what you know right now, if Gore runs, do you think he will win the Democratic nomination?
|2. Will not||44||31||59||44||43||46|
|3. (Too soon)||11||14||6||17||13||10|
|4. (Not sure)||13||12||13||13||11||14|
4. Based on what you know right now, do you think President Bush will win reelection in 2004 or will the Democratic nominee win?
|1. Bush will win||60%||43%||83%||54%||60%||60%|
|2. Democrat will win||18||32||5||14||18||17|
|3. (Too soon/too close)||14||18||7||18||14||14|
|4. (Not sure)||8||7||5||14||8||9|