Common Sense: Knowing When to Walk Away...

I'll never forget going on a business trip years ago to Las Vegas.

As luck would have it, I had a little time to stop by a casino with my cameraman at the time.  I was just taking in the sights, but my cameraman ambled up to some table.  I don't even know what he was playing, but I do know he was winning. A lot. I think at one point, he was up 10-grand! I kid you not.

I remember telling him, "Cash out, you're rich!" But, he would hear none of it.

"Neil," he said, "This is my night. I'm on a tear."

Let me cut to the chase. He lost that money and more money after that. By the time we were flying back to New York, he was drowning his sorrows in a Jack Daniels and wondering how he would explain to his wife how he lost 800 bucks.

I never forgot that trip. The story of a friend didn't know when to hold them and when to fold them. A lot like OPEC today.

OPEC is reportedly delaying ramping up production. Why? Because they're making money hand over fist, that's why! And because they don't think they can lose, that's why! And because, like my friend, they love to tempt fate, that's why!

Well, I say that OPEC is being stupid. Because the hand they have now won't last.

Economies are slowing and consumers are balking. Yet OPEC is still screwing us. Pretty soon, they'll see all the signs: less money coming in and fewer customers paying in.

Yet, they'll keep playing the same, old greedy hand.

OPEC is about to find out why there is a reason they call this game craps. And I couldn't be more delighted at the prospect.

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