California Recall: FOX News Exit Poll Governor Vote
Wednesday, October 08, 2003
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• PDF: Calif. Recall Exit Poll Questionnaire
• Recall Vote | • Governor Vote
California Recall Election Exit Poll - October 7, 2003
4172 Interviews (400 Absentee, 3772 Exit) - 10:30 EDT/7:30 PDT
Governor Vote - Horizontal Percentages
edison media research/Mitofsky International
How to Read These Horizontal Exit Poll Tables
The percentages in the first column, labeled "Total," show the proportion of the electorate that is in each subgroup — these columns are read down vertically.
The percentages in all remaining columns are read across horizontally (those to the right of the "Total" column). These percentages show how the particular subgroup of voters divided their vote among the candidates or vote question.
• PDF: Calif. Recall Exit Poll Questionnaire
• Recall Vote | • Governor Vote
California Recall Election Exit Poll - October 7, 2003
4172 Interviews (400 Absentee, 3772 Exit) - 10:30 EDT/7:30 PDT
Governor Vote - Horizontal Percentages
edison media research/Mitofsky International
How to Read These Horizontal Exit Poll Tables
The percentages in the first column, labeled "Total," show the proportion of the electorate that is in each subgroup — these columns are read down vertically.
The percentages in all remaining columns are read across horizontally (those to the right of the "Total" column). These percentages show how the particular subgroup of voters divided their vote among the candidates or vote question.
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|
Total | Governor Vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz M. Bustamante | Arnold Schwarzenegger | Tom McClintock | Peter Miguel Camejo | Arianna Huffington | Someone Else | |||
| Sex | Male | 48% | 33% | 49% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| Female | 52% | 37% | 42% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Sex by Race | White Male | 33% | 28% | 55% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 2% |
| White Female | 36% | 30% | 48% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Non-White Male | 15% | 47% | 33% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 3% | |
| Non-White Female | 16% | 54% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Race | White | 69% | 29% | 51% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
| Black | 6% | 65% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | |
| Hispanic | 18% | 52% | 30% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 2% | |
| Asian | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Other | 4% | 36% | 37% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 6% | |
| Age (4 Categories) | 18-29 | 13% | 35% | 42% | 10% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| 30-44 | 30% | 31% | 48% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| 45-64 | 40% | 37% | 45% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 37% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Age (Age-65 & Over) | 18-64 | 83% | 34% | 45% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| 65+ | 17% | 37% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Age (Age-60) | 18-29 | 13% | 35% | 42% | 10% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| 30-44 | 30% | 31% | 48% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| 45-59 | 32% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| 60+ | 25% | 37% | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Age (Age-65) | 18-24 | 7% | 29% | 46% | 11% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| 25-29 | 6% | 41% | 39% | 9% | 9% | 0% | 3% | |
| 30-39 | 18% | 35% | 45% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| 40-49 | 24% | 31% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| 50-64 | 28% | 37% | 45% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 37% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Age (Age 4 categories) by Men | Men 18-29 | 15% | 33% | 44% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 4% |
| Men 30-44 | 29% | 27% | 55% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Men 45-64 | 41% | 37% | 47% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| Men 65+ | 15% | 35% | 48% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Age (Age 4 categories) by Women | Women 18-29 | 12% | 36% | 41% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 3% |
| Women 30-44 | 31% | 34% | 43% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Women 45-64 | 39% | 37% | 42% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 2% | |
| Women 65+ | 18% | 39% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Education | Did not complete high school | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| High school grad | 14% | 33% | 49% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Some college/associate degree | 33% | 30% | 47% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| College grad | 27% | 32% | 48% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Postgraduate study | 23% | 45% | 37% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 2% | |
| Education | Non-college grad | 49% | 32% | 47% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| College grad or greater | 51% | 38% | 43% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 2% | |
| Education | High school or less | 16% | 36% | 46% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Some college/Associate degree | 33% | 30% | 47% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| College grad or greater | 51% | 38% | 43% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 2% | |
| 2002 Total Family Income | Under $15,000 | 5% | 39% | 40% | 7% | 10% | 0% | 4% |
| $15,000-$29,999 | 11% | 46% | 34% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 4% | |
| $30,000-$49,999 | 17% | 41% | 39% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 26% | 34% | 46% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 2% | |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 18% | 29% | 52% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1% | |
| $100,000 or more | 23% | 31% | 50% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a...? | Democrat | 39% | 69% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Republican | 39% | 6% | 74% | 18% | 1% | 0% | 1% | |
| Independent | 16% | 29% | 44% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 4% | |
| Something else | 7% | 26% | 41% | 10% | 12% | 1% | 9% | |
| Party ID (Collapsed) | Democrat | 39% | 69% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Republican | 39% | 6% | 74% | 18% | 1% | 0% | 1% | |
| Independent or something else | 23% | 28% | 43% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 6% | |
| Party Affiliation | Male Democrat | 16% | 73% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 1% |
| Male Republican | 20% | 5% | 77% | 16% | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Male Independent/Else | 12% | 27% | 45% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 6% | |
| Female Democrat | 22% | 65% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 3% | |
| Female Republican | 19% | 7% | 71% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 1% | |
| Female Independent/Else | 11% | 29% | 41% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 5% | |
| On most political matters, do you consider yourself...? | Very liberal | 11% | 72% | 11% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 3% |
| Somewhat liberal | 20% | 59% | 24% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 4% | |
| Moderate | 36% | 32% | 49% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Somewhat conservative | 19% | 12% | 67% | 18% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| Very conservative | 13% | 10% | 64% | 24% | 1% | 0% | 1% | |
| Political Ideology | Liberal | 32% | 63% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 1% | 3% |
| Moderate | 36% | 32% | 49% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Conservative | 32% | 11% | 66% | 20% | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Party by Political Ideology | Liberal Democrats | 27% | 75% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 2% |
| Moderate/Conservative Democrats | 23% | 61% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Liberal/Moderate Republicans | 18% | 8% | 74% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 2% | |
| Conservative Republicans | 32% | 4% | 74% | 20% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| Political Ideology by Sex | Male liberal | 13% | 67% | 18% | 5% | 7% | 1% | 2% |
| Male moderate | 17% | 34% | 50% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 4% | |
| Male conservative | 18% | 7% | 71% | 19% | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Female liberal | 19% | 61% | 20% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 4% | |
| Female moderate | 19% | 30% | 49% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Female conservative | 15% | 16% | 60% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 1% | |
| Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? | I do | 17% | 44% | 38% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 2% |
| Yes, someone else does | 13% | 37% | 41% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 3% | |
| Yes, I do and someone else does | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| No one does | 68% | 31% | 49% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Union Household | Union Household | 32% | 41% | 39% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| Non-union Household | 68% | 31% | 49% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Union Member | Voter is a union member | 20% | 44% | 37% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 2% |
| Someone in household is union member | 13% | 37% | 41% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 3% | |
| No union member in household | 68% | 31% | 49% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual? | Yes | 4% | 52% | 31% | 4% | 9% | 0% | 3% |
| No | 96% | 34% | 46% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| How often have you voted in previous elections? | Always | 73% | 35% | 46% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| Usually | 21% | 36% | 42% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Rarely | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Never | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Frequency of past voting | Always/Usually vote | 94% | 35% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| Rarely/Never vote | 6% | 30% | 53% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 2% | |
| Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? | Approve | 50% | 9% | 71% | 17% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Disapprove | 47% | 63% | 17% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 5% | |
| No Answer | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? | Strongly approve | 6% | 74% | 15% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 2% |
| Somewhat approve | 20% | 80% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Somewhat disapprove | 23% | 46% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 4% | |
| Strongly disapprove | 50% | 7% | 73% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? | Strongly/Somewhat approve | 26% | 79% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Strongly/Somewhat disapprove | 73% | 19% | 59% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Davis Approval/Recall vote | Approve of Davis job | 26% | 79% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Disapprove of Davis job/NO on recall | 18% | 61% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 1% | 5% | |
| Disapprove of Davis job/YES on recall | 55% | 5% | 75% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| Is your opinion of Cruz Bustamante...? | Favorable | 37% | 77% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Unfavorable | 58% | 8% | 68% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 5% | 32% | 44% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 5% | |
| Is your opinion of Tom McClintock...? | Favorable | 54% | 19% | 55% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Unfavorable | 37% | 56% | 32% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 4% | |
| No Answer | 8% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | |
| Is your opinion of Arnold Schwarzenegger...? | Favorable | 51% | 5% | 82% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Unfavorable | 45% | 69% | 4% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 4% | |
| No Answer | 4% | 34% | 35% | 21% | 4% | 2% | 4% | |
| When did you finally decide how to vote within today"s election to recall Gray Davis? | Today | 5% | 31% | 39% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 8% |
| In the last three days | 5% | 27% | 43% | 18% | 8% | 1% | 3% | |
| In the last week | 6% | 35% | 34% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 4% | |
| Within the last month | 15% | 29% | 45% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 2% | |
| More than a month ago | 67% | 35% | 47% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 3% | |
| Did not vote on the recall | 2% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| When did you finally decide how to vote in today's election to recall Gray Davis? | In the last three days | 9% | 29% | 41% | 17% | 7% | 1% | 6% |
| Within the last week or earlier | 89% | 34% | 45% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| When did you finally decide how to vote in today's election to recall Gray Davis? | Within the last week | 15% | 31% | 38% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 5% |
| Within the last month or earlier | 84% | 34% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| No matter how you voted today, which comes closer to your opinion about the recall process? | It was worth the cost | 49% | 8% | 74% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| It was a waste of money | 47% | 63% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 4% | |
| No Answer | 4% | 27% | 50% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 2% | |
| When voting today, did you experience any problems with the voting equipment or the length of the ballot? | Serious problems | 2% | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Minor problems | 7% | 44% | 35% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 3% | |
| No problems | 88% | 33% | 46% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| When voting today, did you experience any problems with the voting equipment or the length of the ballot? | Serious/Minor problems | 9% | 45% | 34% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 4% |
| No problems | 88% | 33% | 46% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Voting Equipment | Punch Card | 36% | 36% | 44% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| DRE/Touch Screen | 5% | 28% | 47% | 21% | 2% | 0% | 2% | |
| Optical Scan | 34% | 33% | 45% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Absentee/Early Voters | 25% | 38% | 46% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% | |
| Voting Method | Punch Cards | 36% | 36% | 44% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| Other method | 64% | 34% | 46% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Do you think the condition of California's economy is...? | Excellent | 4% | 37% | 33% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| Good | 12% | 47% | 35% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2% | |
| Not so good | 50% | 40% | 39% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 3% | |
| Poor | 33% | 22% | 61% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Do you think the condition of California's economy is...? | Excellent/Good | 16% | 44% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Not so good/Poor | 83% | 33% | 47% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 1% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| Will California be able to resolve its budget deficit without raising taxes? | Yes | 46% | 21% | 60% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| No | 47% | 48% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 4% | |
| No Answer | 7% | 37% | 41% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| If these had been the only two candidates for governor on the ballot today, for whom would you have voted? | Cruz M. Bustamante | 39% | 86% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| Arnold Schwarzenegger | 53% | 1% | 83% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Would not have voted for governor | 7% | 10% | 5% | 50% | 13% | 3% | 19% | |
| Which was more important in your vote for a new governor today? | My candidate's positions on the issues | 59% | 37% | 41% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 2% |
| My candidate's leadership/personal qualities | 37% | 27% | 56% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| Did not vote for a new governor | 4% | 61% | 17% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 12% | |
| Do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger addressed the issues in enough detail? | Yes | 31% | 6% | 85% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| No | 63% | 50% | 25% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 5% | 26% | 53% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Should the state government issue drivers licenses to illegal immigrants? | Yes | 24% | 71% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 1% | 3% |
| No | 70% | 21% | 58% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| No Answer | 6% | 49% | 30% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 2% | |
| Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be... | Legal in all cases | 30% | 46% | 35% | 8% | 7% | 1% | 4% |
| Legal in most cases | 35% | 39% | 45% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Illegal in most cases | 20% | 17% | 61% | 19% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| Illegal in all cases | 10% | 28% | 44% | 24% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Answer | 5% | 29% | 46% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 4% | |
| Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be... | Legal in most/all cases | 65% | 42% | 40% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| Illegal in most/all cases | 30% | 20% | 56% | 21% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Answer | 5% | 29% | 46% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 4% | |
| How do you feel about California's new law extending domestic partner rights for gays and lesbians? | Enthusiastic | 21% | 58% | 22% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| Supportive, but not enthusiastic | 32% | 42% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |
| Opposed, but not angry | 29% | 20% | 57% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| Angry | 13% | 16% | 65% | 17% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Answer | 5% | 29% | 49% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Feelings on new domestic partners law | Enthusiastic/Supportive, but not enthusiastic | 53% | 48% | 34% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| Opposed, but not angry/Angry | 42% | 19% | 59% | 17% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Answer | 5% | 29% | 49% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Recall Vote | Yes | 58% | 7% | 73% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| No | 42% | 73% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 4% | |
| Proposition 54 Vote | Yes | 36% | 15% | 64% | 17% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| No | 64% | 47% | 34% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 3% | |
| Recall Vote by Proposition 54 | Yes both Recall & Prop 54 | 29% | 4% | 75% | 18% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Yes Recall but No Prop 54 | 28% | 8% | 71% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| No Recall but Yes Prop 54 | 7% | 61% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 6% | |
| No both Recall & Prop 54 | 36% | 76% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 4% | |
| Recall by Replacement vote | Yes - Bustamante | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Yes - Schwarzenegger | 42% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Yes - Other/No Vote | 12% | 0% | 3% | 80% | 6% | 3% | 8% | |
| No - Bustamante | 30% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| No - Schwarzenegger | 3% | * | * | * | * | * | * | |
| No - Other/No Vote | 8% | 3% | 1% | 37% | 34% | 6% | 20% | |
| California Geocodes | Los Angeles County | 24% | 41% | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| Southern California | 29% | 23% | 59% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |
| Bay Area | 18% | 52% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 4% | |
| Coastal | 11% | 45% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 5% | |
| Inland/Valley | 18% | 22% | 55% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | |
| Exit poll/Telephone poll | Exit poll | 75% | 34% | 45% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Telephone poll | 25% | 38% | 46% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% | |
* Too few voters in subgroup to break out
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