
Poll: Bush Ratings and Preview of Upcoming Elections
Saturday, August 10, 2002
Results from the latest Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll show that a majority of Americans continues to approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, and most also have a favorable opinion of him personally.
Today, 69 percent of Americans approve of President Bush's job performance and 20 percent disapprove. In late July the president's job performance rating went below 70 percent for the first time since the September terrorist attacks.
Bush continues to receive extremely strong job ratings from Republicans -- over 90 percent approval for the last several months -- while his numbers among Democrats have dropped off considerably in recent months. Today, 52 percent of Democrats approve of Bush's job performance, down from a high of 77 percent in November 2001.
Aside from job performance, most Americans have a positive view of the president. With a 72 percent favorable rating, Bush outshines not only Vice President Dick Cheney who has a 60 percent favorable rating, but also former Vice President Al Gore at 51 percent favorable.
2004 Vote for President
Bush also leads Al Gore in a 2004 presidential rematch, though not by the margins his ratings would suggest. The poll found that if the next presidential election were held today, 50 percent of voters say they would support Bush and 37 percent Gore, with the remaining 13 percent voting for someone else or undecided.
"In most elections the undecided voters break heavily for the challenger -- this case Gore," said Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "If the next race follows this pattern it will be another close one despite the president’s high ratings and general approval. There is certainly some risk for him that he will follow in his father’s footsteps."
By larger margins Bush also bests other possible Democratic contenders such as Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (Bush 55 percent, Lieberman 30 percent), New York Senator Hillary Clinton (Bush 58 percent, Clinton 28 percent), and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (Bush 54 percent, Daschle 28 percent).
As was the case earlier in the year, Gore is still the favored Democratic presidential nominee for 2004. A plurality of Democrats (29 percent) supports the former vice president over other potential candidates. Hillary Clinton (15 percent) nabs the second slot, outranking Lieberman, Daschle and House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt (each receives eight percent).
Throw Out the Other Representatives -- Keep Mine
But before voting for president, the country will hold midterm elections this November, when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as well as about one-third of the Senate and over half of the nation's governors will be on the ballot. If voters made their selection for the House today, 39 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate while 36 percent say they would vote for the Democrat (25 percent are unsure).
In the same way some parents think other people's kids are annoying while their kids are angels, Americans are more likely to think other Congressional Representatives should be voted out but that their representative deserves reelection.
Over half of voters nationwide (57 percent) think their representative deserves to be reelected while less than one-third think "the average representative" should retain a seat in Congress. Likewise, almost twice as many voters think that most representatives should be thrown out as think their representative should be booted.
Members of Congress: Deserve Reelection?
| Yes | No | |
| Most | 31% | 42 |
| Mine | 57% | 23 |
On the issues, voters say Democrats would do a better job on education, Social Security, Medicare and energy. In addition, Democrats are now seen as the political party that would do a better job on the economy, an issue that the Republicans have dominated in the past couple of years. When it comes to homeland security and military defense, about twice as many people say the GOP is the party that would do a better job.
Polling was conducted by telephone August 6-7, 2002 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapprove | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 69% | 20 | 11 |
| 23-24 Jul 02 | 69% | 18 | 13 |
| 9-10 Jul 02 | 70% | 19 | 11 |
| 18-19 Jun 02 | 73% | 14 | 13 |
| 4-5 Jun 02 | 74% | 15 | 11 |
| 14-15 May 02 | 77% | 15 | 8 |
I'm going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of someone, please just say so.
2. George W. Bush
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Can't Say | Never heard | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 72% | 22 | 6 | - |
| 4-5 Jun 02 | 69% | 19 | 12 | - |
| 14-15 May 02 | 77% | 17 | 6 | - |
| 16-17 Apr 02 | 75% | 19 | 6 | - |
| 2-3 Apr 02 | 79% | 15 | 6 | - |
| 12-13 Feb 02 | 81% | 13 | 6 | - |
3. Al Gore
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Can't Say | Never heard | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 51% | 38 | 11 | - |
| 16-17 Apr 02 | 44% | 44 | 11 | 1 |
| 12-13 Dec 01 | 47% | 40 | 13 | - |
| 22-23 Aug 01 | 51% | 39 | 10 | - |
4. Dick Cheney
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Can't Say | Never heard | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 60% | 25 | 12 | 3 |
| 30-31 Jan 02 | 59% | 20 | 16 | 5 |
| 22-23 Aug 01 | 57% | 27 | 14 | 2 |
| 11-12 Jul 01 | 65% | 21 | 12 | 2 |
5. Tom Daschle
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Can't Say | Never heard | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 33% | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 6-7 Jun 01 | 25% | 16 | 21 | 38 |
6. What do you think are the two most important issues for the federal government to address? (Do Not Read)
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 26-27 Feb 02 | 12-13 Dec 01 | 19-20 Sep 01 | |
| Economy | 30% | 21% | 32% | 30% |
| Terrorism | 24 | 19 | 28 | 52 |
| Education | 17 | 19 | 14 | 12 |
| Homeland Security | 13 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Health Care | 12 | 14 | 9 | 6 |
| Social Security | 9 | 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Medicare/Medicaid Reform | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Employment/jobs | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Taxes | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| War | 7 | 5 | 10 | 14 |
| Foreign policy | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Crime/drugs | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Family values/morals (decline of) | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Defense | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| Poverty/Homelessness | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Environment | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| September 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Welfare | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Immigration | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Federal deficit | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Corporate corruption | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Balanced budget | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Campaign Finance Reform | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| Usama bin Laden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Abortion | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Child care | 1 | - | 1 | 1 |
| IRS problems | 1 | - | - | - |
| Gun Control | - | - | - | - |
| Race relations | - | - | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (Don't know/Ref) | 6 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
Most Important Issues -- Summary
| Terrorism/War/Homeland/Usama/9-11 | 47% |
| Economy/Jobs | 37 |
| Education | 17 |
| Health Care | 13 |
| Social Security | 9 |
| Medicare/Medicaid | 7 |
7. Thinking ahead to this November's elections, if the congressional election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If undecided) Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?
| Republican | Democrat | ||||||
| Vote | Lean | Total | Vote | Lean | Total | (Other/Not sure) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 33% | 6 | 39 | 31 | 5 | 36 | 25 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 34% | 6 | 40 | 30 | 2 | 32 | 28 |
| 12-13 Dec 01 | 33% | 7 | 40 | 21 | 8 | 29 | 31 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 32% | 6 | 38 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 26 |
| 10-11 Jan 01 | 26% | 7 | 33 | 32 | 6 | 38 | 29 |
8. When you think about Congress, do you think the average representative deserves to be reelected, or would we be better off throwing most of them out and starting over with new people?
SCALE: 1. Yes, deserve reelection 2. No, throw them out 3. (It depends) 4. (Not sure)
| Yes | No | (Depends) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 31% | 42 | 18 | 9 |
| LV 28-29 Oct 98 | 37% | 42 | 15 | 6 |
| 28-29 Oct 98 | 35% | 44 | 14 | 7 |
| 9-10 Sep 98 | 37% | 36 | 19 | 8 |
| 30 Jun-1 Jul 98 | 29% | 48 | 17 | 6 |
9. How about your representative -- do you think he or she deserves to be reelected?
SCALE: 1. Yes, deserves reelection 2. No does not deserve reelection 3. (Not sure)
| Yes | No | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 57% | 23 | 20 |
| LV 28-29 Oct 98 | 66% | 20 | 14 |
| 28-29 Oct 98 | 62% | 20 | 18 |
| 9-10 Sep 98 | 66% | 17 | 17 |
| 30 Jun-1 Jul 98 | 61% | 20 | 19 |
10. How much do you think Congress has accomplished so far this year?
| 1. A lot | 15% |
| 2. Some, but not a lot | 42 |
| 3. A little | 23 |
| 4. Almost nothing at all | 15 |
| 5. (Not sure) | 5 |
11. As part of the FBI's investigation of leaks of classified information, do you think members of Congress who had access to the classified information should or should not take lie detector tests to show whether they are leaking government secrets?
| 1. Should take lie detector tests | 73% |
| 2. Should not take lie detector tests | 18 |
| 3. (Not sure) | 9 |
12. Congress has gone on vacation for the month of August. Do you think this will have a positive effect on the country or a negative effect on the country?
| Positive | Negative | (No difference) | (Not sure) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 24% | 37 | 31 | 8 |
| 11-12 Aug 99 | 21% | 27 | 40 | 12 |
| 6-7 Aug 97 | 26% | 27 | 38 | 9 |
13. Which of the following potential candidates would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? (randomize)
| ALL | Dem | GOP | Ind | |
| Former Vice President Al Gore | 19% | 29% | 12% | 13% |
| New York Senator Hillary Clinton | 10 | 15 | 8 | 7 |
| Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman | 10 | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Massachusetts Senator John Kerry | 8 | 5 | 10 | 9 |
| North Carolina Senator John Edwards | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Reverend Al Sharpton | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| (Someone else/Other) | 10 | 6 | 12 | 16 |
| (Not sure) | 18 | 14 | 18 | 22 |
14. Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential elections, if the elections were held today, for whom do you think you would vote if the candidates were: PROBE FOR LEANERS; ROTATE (Republican George W. Bush) or (Democrat Al Gore)?
| Bush | Gore | (Someone Else) | (Undecided) | (Would not vote) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 50% | 37 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| GOP | 85% | 10 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Dem | 23% | 67 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Ind | 51% | 23 | 10 | 13 | 3 |
| 12-13 Dec 01 | 61% | 23 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| GOP | 89% | 4 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Dem | 28% | 54 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
| Ind | 56% | 15 | 7 | 20 | 2 |
| 6-7 Jun 01 | 50% | 38 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 10-11 Jan 01 | 39% | 36 | 6 | 19 | - |
15. If the candidates were: (ROTATE)
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 6-7 Jun 01 | |
| 1. Republican George W. Bush | 55% | 53% |
| 2. Democrat Joe Lieberman | 30 | 32 |
| 3. (Someone else) | 4 | 8 |
| 4. (Undecided) | 10 | 6 |
| 5. (Would not vote) | 1 | 1 |
16. If the candidates were: (Rotate)
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 10-11 Jan 01 | |
| 1. Republican George W. Bush | 58% | 45% |
| 2. Democrat Hillary Clinton | 28 | 34 |
| 3. (Someone else) | 4 | 7 |
| 4. (Undecided) | 8 | 14 |
| 5. (Would not vote) | 2 | - |
17. If the candidates were: (Rotate)
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 6-7 Jun 01 | |
| 1. Republican George W. Bush | 54% | 56% |
| 2. Democrat Tom Daschle | 28 | 23 |
| 3. (Someone else) | 3 | 10 |
| 4. (Undecided) | 14 | 9 |
| 5. (Would not vote) | 1 | 2 |
18. On the national level, are you more concerned about the economy or about national security?
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 12-13 Feb 02 | |
| 1. U.S. economy | 39% | 35% |
| 2. National security | 33 | 35 |
| 3. (Both) | 27 | 28 |
| 4. (Neither) | 1 | 1 |
| 5. (Not sure) | - | 1 |
Which political party -- the Republicans or the Democrats -- do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? (ROTATE)
SCALE: 1. Republicans 2. Democrats 3. (Equal) 4. (Not sure)
19. The economy
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 36% | 43 | 9 | 12 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 41% | 36 | 10 | 13 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 42% | 37 | 8 | 13 |
| 23-24 June 99* | 39% | 38 | 9 | 14 |
| 24-25 Feb 99* | 41% | 39 | 8 | 12 |
* "maintaining a strong economy"
20. Education
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 35% | 44 | 10 | 11 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 36% | 38 | 12 | 14 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 42% | 35 | 12 | 11 |
| 23-24 June 99* | 32% | 40 | 11 | 17 |
| 24-25 Feb 99* | 31% | 42 | 11 | 16 |
| 28-29 Oct 98 | 28% | 42 | 9 | 21 |
* "improving education"
21. Social Security
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 30% | 48 | 9 | 13 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 33% | 44 | 9 | 14 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 39% | 41 | 7 | 13 |
| 23-24 Jun 99* | 32% | 43 | 8 | 17 |
| 24-25 Feb 99* | 28% | 46 | 10 | 16 |
| 28-29 Oct 98 | 30% | 43 | 7 | 20 |
* "preserving Social Security"
22. Military Defense
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 54% | 26 | 10 | 10 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 55% | 23 | 9 | 13 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 59% | 22 | 7 | 12 |
23. Taxes
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 40% | 41 | 7 | 12 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 40% | 37 | 10 | 13 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 47% | 35 | 7 | 11 |
| 23-24 June 99* | 45% | 32 | 8 | 15 |
| 24-25 Feb 99* | 44% | 33 | 8 | 15 |
* "keeping taxes down"
24. Energy
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 32% | 42 | 10 | 16 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 38% | 37 | 9 | 16 |
25. Homeland Security
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 51% | 25 | 10 | 14 |
| 26-27 Feb 02 | 48% | 23 | 12 | 17 |
26. Medicare
| GOP | Dems | (Equal) | (Dk) | |
| 6-7 Aug 02 | 30% | 49 | 9 | 12 |
| 28-29 Mar 01 | 35% | 41 | 9 | 15 |
27. Recently some corporate executives who were accused of wrongdoing were taken to jail in handcuffs. Does seeing this make you confident that things are getting cleaned up in corporate America or not?
| 1. Yes | 48% |
| 2. No | 45 |
| 3. (Not sure) | 7 |













