The polarized electorate continues, with support still divided between President George W. Bush and Mass. Sen. John Kerry (search) in the presidential race and opinion split on whether going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the U.S. to do, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday.

Six months before Election Day, President Bush receives the support of 44 percent of voters and Kerry 41 percent in the national poll of registered voters conducted for Fox News by Opinion Dynamics Corporation (search). The new results are within the poll's margin of error, as has been the case in Fox News poll head-to-head presidential matchups for more than two months.

Even with the continuing violence against U.S. troops in Iraq and new evidence of Iraqi prisoner abuse, support for the decision to go to war is unchanged from early April. Half of Americans think going to war was the right thing for the U.S. to do, while just over four in 10 think it was wrong.

The poll finds the president's job approval rating hovering in about the same spot since mid-February. Currently 49 percent of Americans approve and 43 percent disapprove of Bush's job performance. His personal ratings are similar, with 50 percent having a favorable view of the incumbent and 42 percent an unfavorable view.

Kerry's personal ratings have dipped, and he continues to be unknown to many Americans. Today, the public's impression of the senator is evenly divided (39 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable). A month ago it was 43 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable. Almost 20 percent are still too unfamiliar with Kerry to voice an opinion.

Voters say they think Bush would do a better job than his Democratic opponent in several key areas. Bush has a significant lead over Kerry on handling the war on terrorism (52 percent to 26 percent), and also tops him on handling the situation in Iraq (48 percent to 35 percent) and foreign policy (47 percent to 37 percent).

Kerry is chosen over Bush on who is best suited to handle Social Security (37 percent to 34 percent) and health care (41 percent to 34 percent). The candidates are virtually tied on the issues of the economy and education.

"While the overall vote has changed little, this survey has a number of warning signs for the Kerry campaign," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "The Bush negative advertising and the recent critical press scrutiny of some of his statements, seems to have hurt public perceptions of Kerry. Of course, this survey was being done just as the Iraq prison scandals were being reported. It is difficult to know what the long-term implications of these will be for the race — will voters rally around the administration or will they turn against it?"

The economy is the top issue for voters, with a 23 percent plurality saying it will be the most important issue in deciding their vote for president this year, followed by health care/Medicare (11 percent), homeland security (10 percent) and Iraq (10 percent).

Today about a third of Americans (31 percent) rate the nation's economy as either "excellent" or "good," 41 percent say the economy is "only fair" and about a quarter say "poor."  There are large partisan gaps in views on the condition of the economy, with 54 percent of Republicans rating the economy as either excellent or good compared to 28 percent of independents and only 12 percent of Democrats.

Looking down the road, a 55 percent majority thinks the economy will be doing better a year from now, which is more than twice as many as expect things will get worse (22 percent). Even so, this is a more pessimistic outlook than six months ago when 68 percent said the economy will get better next year and 18 percent said worse (December 2003).

The poll also rated the presidential candidates on several personal character traits. By 52 to 31 voters say Bush is a stronger leader, and Bush is also picked over Kerry as more knowledgeable on the issues (48 percent to 33 percent). The candidates tie on the question of which understands the average American better, with 14 percent of voters suggesting that neither does.

Some pundits believe that voters must like a candidate as a person to vote for him or her on Election Day. On this measure, Bush bests Kerry with 49 percent saying the president is a "more likeable person." In addition, 44 percent of voters say they would rather have Bush as their personal friend compared to 33 percent that pick Kerry.

War in Iraq

Today, half of the public believes going to war with Iraq was the "right thing for the United States to do," down from 58 percent six months ago and a high of 65 percent in July 2003.

A majority (55 percent) thinks the Iraqi people could be doing more to help the U.S.-led coalition in their efforts to bring stability to the country, and a 44 percent plurality thinks Iraq will be less stable after the June 30 transfer of power. Fully 72 percent think the United Nations should have "a lot" or "some" involvement in managing the upcoming transition of power in Iraq.

Less than half of the public has heard or read about the alleged scandal in the U.N.'s Oil for Food program (search), which was designed to provide humanitarian aid to the Iraqi people under Saddam Hussein's regime. Of those familiar with corruption charges, almost all (88 percent) say the charges are believable (55 percent "very" and 33 percent "somewhat").

Polling was conducted by telephone May 4-5, 2004 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. The subset of "Battlegrounds" includes the following states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, new Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

I'm going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of one, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE)
SCALE: 1. Favorable 2. Unfavorable 3. (Can't say) 4. Never heard of

1. George W. Bush

2. John Kerry

3. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

5. In your everyday conversations with friends and neighbors, what topic would you say comes up most often these days? (OPEN ENDED)

6. On a scale of excellent, good, only fair and poor, how would you rate economic conditions today?
SCALE: 1. Excellent 2. Good 3. Only fair 4. Poor 5. (Not sure)

7. A year from now, do you think the economy will be better or worse? Is that a lot (better/worse) or only a little (better/worse)?

8. – 15. Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues?
SCALE: 1. George W. Bush 2. John Kerry 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Not sure)

               ********** SUMMARY CHART **********

               PAST TREND:

               The economy

               Education

               Foreign policy

               Health care

               The situation in Iraq

               Taxes

               The war on terrorism

               Social Security

16. Which one of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president?

17. Who would you rather have as your personal friend: George W. Bush or John Kerry?

18. Who would you rather watch on television for the next four years: George W. Bush or John Kerry?

19. In general, do you think George W. Bush is honest and trustworthy?

20. In general, do you think John Kerry is honest and trustworthy?

21. – 29. Which presidential candidate (Bush or Kerry) do you think:
SCALE: 1. George W. Bush 2. John Kerry 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Not sure)

30. Do you think most Democrats are happy with John Kerry as their party’s presidential nominee or do you think most Democrats wish they had selected someone else as their presidential nominee?

31. Do you think most Republicans are happy with George W. Bush as their party’s presidential nominee or do you think most Republicans wish they had selected someone else as their presidential nominee?

32. Do you think the upcoming Republican and Democratic political conventions are better described as (a waste of time and money) or are the conventions (an important part of the presidential candidate nominating process)?

33. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Do you feel strongly or only somewhat that it was (right/wrong) to go to war with Iraq?
SCALE: 1. Strongly right 2. Somewhat right 3. Somewhat wrong 4. Strongly wrong 5. (Not sure)

34. Do you think most Iraqi people are working hard for their country’s stability and security or do you think Iraqis could be doing more to help the U.S.-led coalition achieve stability and security in Iraq?

35. After the June 30 transfer of power, do you think Iraq will be more stable or less stable than it is now?

36. How much of a role do you think the United Nations should have in managing the political transition of power in Iraq?

37. Have you heard or read about the charges of possible corruption in the United Nations’ Oil for Food program, which was designed to provide humanitarian aid to the Iraqi people under Saddam Hussein’s regime?

38. (If yes on Q37) How believable do you find the charges of corruption regarding the United Nations’ Oil for Food program?

39. (If yes on Q37) If an investigation of the Oil for Food program finds that any senior U.N. officials are guilty of serious wrongdoing, do you think Kofi Annan should resign as secretary-general of the United Nations?

40. (If yes on Q37) The United Nations has vowed to get to the bottom of the alleged scandal, but is refusing to release most of the Oil for Food documentation. Do you think the United Nations should make all the Oil for Food documentation available to U.S. investigators?

41. Which one of the following will play the biggest role when deciding your travel plans this summer?