Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has replaced former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as the presidential candidate the public expects will win the Democratic Party’s nomination, and Kerry also does better than other Democratic hopefuls in a hypothetical matchup against President George W. Bush, a Fox News poll finds. In addition, a plurality sees Kerry as the Democrat who best understands "the real world" and, finally, he strongly outperforms Dean on a new focus in the campaign: temperament.

In this week’s Fox News national poll, Kerry was the strongest candidate against Bush in a "what if" question about the presidential election and was the only one to keep the president under 50 percent -- if just barely: Kerry 42 percent and Bush 49 percent.

Even so, more Americans say they would trust Bush over Kerry to handle a foreign crisis (49 percent to 37 percent). When a similar question is framed generically, by an eight percentage point margin, more Americans say a candidate who has served as a soldier in combat (Kerry) would do a better job handling a foreign crisis than one who has served as president during a war (Bush).

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national poll of registered voters January 21-22, in the days following Bush’s State of the Union Address and Kerry’s win in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses.

Bush’s job approval rating currently stands at 53 percent, down from 58 percent earlier in the month. After "he is doing a good job" generally, those approving of the president’s performance cite most frequently his handling of the war on terrorism as the specific reason behind their approval, followed by "agree with him on issues," "like him personally" and the "economy is improving."

Overall, 39 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Bush is doing, up eight points since earlier in the month. Some of the same reasons are given for disapproving of the president’s job as are given for approval. The war in Iraq is the reason a plurality suggests as why they disapprove, followed by the condition of the economy.

"It is clear that Bush's rating and electoral standing shift day-to-day based on current events," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "While he has a strong base of supporters and a sizable number of opponents, many people in the middle seem to shift their opinions of him and his performance based on the latest news from Iraq and last week's economic news."

Views on the condition of the nation’s economy have turned around. Less than half of Americans (44 percent) say it feels like the economy is getting better while about a third (34 percent) say it is getting worse. This is a reversal from last quarter when 45 percent said they thought the economy was getting worse and 35 percent said better (October 2003).

At 39 percent, the economy is the most talked about issue among friends and neighbors right now, up from 28 percent last month. Other topics that come up in conversation most often these days include Iraq (17 percent), politics (14 percent), family issues (12 percent) and terrorism (11 percent).

Support for the U.S. having taken military action against Iraq holds steady at 66 percent. Americans who approve of the job Bush is doing as president are much more likely to back the action (90 percent), as are Republicans (91 percent), moms (70 percent) and men (70 percent).

Among Democrats, Kerry (29 percent) has taken the lead from Dean and now tops the list of current contenders as the preferred candidate for the party’s nomination, followed by Dean (17 percent), North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (13 percent) and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (11 percent). Kerry climbed 22 points among Democrats nationally since early January.

In addition, expectations about who will win the nomination have reversed in the last two weeks. Today, 39 percent of Americans think Kerry will be the nominee -- about the same number as thought Dean would win earlier this month (similar results are seen among Democrats).

More than twice as many Americans think Kerry has the temperament to serve effectively as president as think Dean does (59 percent and 26 percent respectively), while among Democrats those numbers are even more divided (74 percent Kerry does and 38 percent Dean). Many commentators and pundits have predicted Dean’s frenzied speech in the wake of the Iowa caucuses showed a nature that was "un-presidential" and will turn off voters.

The poll finds that Dean’s image has suffered. While his favorable rating holds steady at 28 percent, his unfavorable rating has jumped 20 points since October to 43 percent today. At 43 percent, Kerry has the highest favorable rating of the top Democratic hopefuls, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (38 percent favorable), Edwards (37 percent) and Clark (32 percent).

Clark and Edwards are the least well known nationally, with over four in 10 Americans saying they have never heard of or have no opinion of these candidates.

When asked how the sudden entry into the Democratic nomination race by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton would change their vote, half of Democrats say they would stick with their original candidate choice but 43 percent say they would instead vote for Clinton.

Another hypothetical focused on Clinton being the vice presidential candidate. Over half (57 percent) of Democrats say they would be more likely to support a Democratic ticket if Clinton were the vice presidential candidate and 11 percent less likely, with 29 percent saying it would make no difference.

These days, the president receives considerable television coverage. In a more lighthearted question, the public was asked which of the three top Democrats coming out of the Iowa caucuses would be the candidate they would rather watch on television for four years. About a quarter (23 percent) say Kerry would be their choice, 21 percent say Edwards, and 12 percent Dean. Some (17 percent) say they would rather not see any of these candidates for four years, while 15 percent think all three are equally acceptable.

Polling was conducted by telephone January 21-22, 2004 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters

1. – 14. I'm going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of one, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE)
SCALE: 1. Favorable 2. Unfavorable 3. (Can't say) 4. Never heard of

                Summary Table

                Howard Dean

                John Kerry

                John Edwards

                Wesley Clark

                Joe Lieberman

                Ted Kennedy

                Martha Stewart

                Democratic Party

                Republican Party

                George W. Bush

                Al Gore

                Bill Clinton

                Dick Cheney

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

16. (If approve) Why do you approve of the job he is doing? (OPEN ENDED. DO NOT READ RESPONSE CATEGORIES. IF RESPONSE DOES NOT FIT INTO A PRE-CODED CATEGORY, RECORD VERBATIM)

17. (If disapprove) Why do you disapprove of the job he is doing? (OPEN)

18. If the 2004 presidential election were held today, do you think you would be more likely to vote (for Republican George W. Bush) or (for the Democratic candidate)? (ROTATE)
SCALE: 1. Vote for Bush 2. Vote for Democrat 3. (Depends on Democrat/too soon to say) 4. (Not sure/Undecided)

*September 2003 and previous: “ . . . to vote to re-elect President Bush”< /FONT>

19. I'm going to read you a list of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in the next election. If a 2004 Democratic primary for president were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would you most likely vote for? (If not sure: Well, to whom do you lean at this time?)(RANDOMIZE)

                Summary Among Democrats (n=336)

                Retired Gen. Wesley Clark

                Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman

                Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry

                North Carolina Sen. John Edwards

                Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean

                New York Minister Al Sharpton

                Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich

                (Someone else/Other)

                (Not sure)

                (Would not vote)

20. Regardless of how you might vote, who do you think is going to be the Democratic presidential nominee? (OPEN ENDED) Summary Among Democrats (n=336)

20. REMOVE THIS QUESTION -- Regardless of how you might vote, who do you think is going to be the Democratic presidential nominee? (OPEN ENDED) 

                Howard Dean

                Wesley Clark

                Joe Lieberman

                Hillary Clinton

                John Kerry

                Al Gore

                John Edwards

                Dennis Kucinich

                Al Sharpton

                Someone else/Other

                Not sure

21. Which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to know what it’s like “in the real world”? (RANDOMIZE)

22. If New York Senator Hillary Clinton were suddenly to enter the race, would you still vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE CHOICE FROM Q 19) or would you vote for Clinton?

23. Do you think Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate against President Bush than any of the current Democratic candidates?

                21-22 Jan 04

                29-30 Jul 03*

*Wording: “…current announced Democratic candidates…”

24. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order)(Push for decision) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat Howard Dean 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

25. For whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order)(Push for decision) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Edwards 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

26. For whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order)(Push for decision) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat Wesley Clark 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

*(Neither/Not sure)

27. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

28. For whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order)(Push for decision) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat Hillary Clinton 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

29. If Hillary Clinton were on the Democratic presidential ticket as the vice presidential candidate, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Democratic candidate?

30. In the future, if the United States were to be faced with a foreign crisis such as Iraq, which candidate would you trust to do a better job handling the situation -- George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE)

31. Do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?

32. Do you think John Kerry has the temperament to serve effectively as president?

33. Which of the following do you think is more likely to help candidates win elections: endorsements or looks?

34. Whoever is elected president will be on television constantly for at least four years. Which one of the following candidates would you rather watch on television for four years?

35. In your everyday conversations with friends and neighbors, what topic would you say comes up most often these days? (OPEN ENDED)