Election Day

" A year ago he said you're retiring but we still see puddles do semi retired have a contract to work -- hundred days for -- a commentator -- Contracted him nudes on the on the while longer good. In Allentown days like. Election days who incidentally -- doesn't mothballs off millions in Manhattan office bonanza which on the train them to New York exactly and injury -- yeah you're doing and the coverage tonight it was time well -- starts six was a Special Report of these there was program -- and successor and and will be on again will be on current figure in the union and Lleyton and me on for a couple of hours. You expect this. Especially New Jersey to go -- well you ninja is the one news account suspect would go late because it's so very close out there it's a great big stadium. There -- suspicion of monkey -- at your house isn't sure exactly so you can't -- can't imagine if him goes relate to them."

" Yeah. More so everybody's trying to analyze this and I don't know whether it's because of the fact of people make a living and watching politics. Had nothing to do rule or whether this really is an important couple of small elections I think."

" It's a reasonably important -- small election because. With the political landscape has changed so much. In the years since we last went to the polls. That is kind of fascinating I mean even if and how are these races turnout. Mr. if you get a a democratic upsetting Virginia you'll have a vote of the Democrats will have reason to say well. The Obama momentum is still there we have the most remote Joe despite a down economy were still strong that would be quite simply. That doesn't look like it looks as if a Republican win in Virginia which represents a swing back from the state to Obama carried. Two of the Republicans lot of -- of the state was trending the other way and -- my possibly irreversibly. In New Jersey he you do have an unpopular incumbent democratic governor for sure you have a third party candidate in the race I think the number to watch in New Jersey united way. -- apart from who wins is how well let independent candidate does if he does really well. Double digits. And Corzine wins a bill to sit well the independent candidate killed republic. But -- his total -- And independent candidate -- 56%. Something in that -- and -- still and to be quite become that would really be a comeback. As for cores -- and and a good sign however of Christie wins. I think that's it to -- the state this turnaround that -- anyone full blown blue state so those two I think or. Our real interest in and you know who thought a year ago and Barack Obama -- then we're already -- a recession that's not news. The fact it hasn't gotten better in terms of the employment picture is I think the central. A piece of background in this whole race don't."

" Pull me and I go back to if you want one of George HW bush lost to Bill Clinton in 92. The economy to turn around that summer. So there was a ramp up of the economy for three or four months before the election but it does not."

" Well it's the only the really matters politically in my experience. And election as unemployment rate that's always looking number and credential is a -- to come back. Well guys to come right so what you often have is to have the -- stock market will be up. Corporate profits will be up Clinton GDP will be growing once again. But the job market is lagging and that's what people feel -- of people sense that morning -- the politically sensitive indicator. And at the moment it's quite high compared to what it was and as well beyond. With the Obama administration forecast it would be. When it went to congress and congress -- a big stimulus package which which. It turned out to be kind of notorious by the time it -- because a bowl of peculiar stuff it was -- aren't so -- minutes of this is a tough atmosphere. Four for the incumbent party but. Still things have changed."

" Do we -- relay this to any others so I mean there's always you've been doing this like that for so long but. But you go back to you take a look at Bill Clinton's first two years and they said well the you know the congress was dictating to the White House what to do they had their agenda. I see a lot of that I smell a lot of that from here and yet ended the -- and the Republicans took over and -- was -- to. Six Bill Clinton and Bill Clinton started becoming -- president."

" Well he started becoming centrist which is what a lot of people thought he was elected him I think we have a parallel between. -- early days of Clinton and relatives of Obama. The economy. Under Clinton was snowing not bad it was coming out of recession right by the time he took office he. Basically Bill Clinton inherited the bush recovery. True which was not far enough advanced to help bush. But did it it needed and of helping Clinton in both directions -- that helped him after he was elected because it was coming back. But the parallel is that we had a president and Clinton who in the early days of his administration. Govern to the left of where he had run. I think Barack Obama is -- has done the same thing his turned out in the eyes of I think a great many millions of people who voted foreign. To be far left to wear they thought he would be. And that is a formula for trouble particularly. When the overall conditions of the country are -- disagreeable by the public which I think this case now. If you go back to the recent again recent polling shows that there are more people they consider themselves conservative. Then liberal by 21 yeah."

" That's a striking so I think of a lot of people on the left. Seem not to recognize that and I think it's because they don't some of them don't get out enough. That's what they don't get out -- wherever it is and rounded out the media centers and up because and they don't know very many people who conservatives. Most of people in those things the way they do and it seems to them that their liberal views are our troops or sort of a normal in mainstream Centre of the row."

" Is like -- the famous comment by polling -- Lou's new York New Yorker magazine's legendary film critic who said after Richard Nixon was. Elected it to -- see how you got elected because nobody seemed hood and a -- a so. The Republican Party. New York 23 the 43 congressional district what do you do here Republicans have in upstate New York today. And you go I don't see any Republican well there on. Of the woman's on the ballot but she but she -- so now you know our -- in many ways -- race of all because of all chaos there which is kind of had this melodrama of the week it was almost too good to be Truman you have this this Republican who was. Really out. Pretty much for Republicans he was pretty for the left. On a broad range of issues -- card check. And all and welcome and and -- like a little only as a whole want to."

" She eventually was kind of forced out of the race because she could hold the base of the party behind here. And so there was a lot of criticism of the activists who -- in and tried to promote the independent conservative. And and and Bennett and attacked her -- a lot of people on the left thought that was a typical example. Of rightwing extremism at work but it even labeled that the Palin Limbaugh back. Group right in and one New York Times columnist over the weekend referred to them stalinists. Then the woman drops out of the race and everyone expects its he has done so. Moralists to benefit the independent conservative. Then she endorses the Democrat thereby it seems to me to some eggs and vindicate in the complaints about her from a lot of Republicans as he really wasn't one of them yet. So the question then arises is what will be the effect in nobody really amended polls accountable all over the place of their now. And it's little hard to read you'd have to think that that conservative. Candidate up there. Hoffman hasn't has a solid chance to win that race which would be quite something -- it's been Republican since the 1800 -- but let's not forget. That is really if you look at John Q who loses that is the candidate of the former congressman right. Whose seat is the one that's being filled left -- become in the army secretary army right. You look at his voting record he was he was left on some issues. He was you know he was really a very much a centrist he was not but a hardcore conservative Republican. And you and you look. It it it at that situation there and it's district because Barack Obama -- issue. It hasn't gone Republican for congress on time but that is a swing district. So the outcome there is important and I think that that's the race who will be most closely watched by a lot of house members. Democrats who were thinking geez should I vote for Obama care policy here order wanna call it or not what is they have Austria in the country. How strong is the tea party. Protest movement did -- may have heard from in my district in during the month of August. How much jeopardy would IBM. With the with the with the activists and -- and how powerful are they cannot afford to -- them. If they -- in those -- up their prom and improved to successful in promoting that conservative candidate and he wins a race. I would think that that would reverberate through the halls of the House of Representatives at some volume."

" There is so we have one -- the independence because of the fact that this man is independent technically a conservative but he's an independent you've got the independent influence in new -- is -- chance that this is the time for May be building an independent group of elected representatives in congress that would then lead to. A true third party."

" Well it's possible could happen but they got a long way to go menu got a tiny handful legacy and arguably have to independence in the Senate Joe Lieberman being one Bernie Sanders of Vermont being another bit. They'll both of them organized with the Democrats and you know in congress. If if if you're an independent he's gonna he got it -- got to organize was somebody else -- not have any say in anything on your room. Perfume she -- 6 o'clock talks with the government."