Political Predictor

" Political implications in today's races across America could be huge. Sending a signal on how voters view president Obama's ambitious agenda particularly on health care reform. Possibly foreshadowing how congressional races might turn out next year. So who can we expect will come out on top tonight what signs should we be looking for. With us now Larry's attitude director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia. You are electing a governor in Virginia and it doesn't look like it's gonna go the way the presidential election when -- the last time around right Larry. It's a very different electorate this year last year was a heavily disproportionate democratic electorate. This year I think we're likely to have a very disproportionately. Republican electorate. And naturally when you have a democratic electorate they elect Democrats wouldn't have a Republican electorate. They elect Republicans and that's what's probably gonna happen in Virginia today well Virginia likes to I guess counterbalance the president they elected the last time with a governor they elected next time let's take a look at the history of that kind of thing if you go back in 1988. President Bush who voted out of Virginia voted for President Bush say elected governor Douglas wilder. In 92 it was Clinton as president in 93 day elected George Allen. As governor of the Republican. Same thing in 96. Clinton emerging went republic I'm sorry Democrats for Clinton. He elected the Republican Gilmore. In 2000. The Republican President Bush that Warner the Democrat as governor. Bush again in 2004. Went for Tim Kaine as governor the question is what happens in 2009. After voting for Obama. In 2008 you think that it's going to be that Republican this time around Bob McDonnell."

" Yes I actually -- will be the ninth time in a -- you truncated -- John and I understand why we don't -- viewers voted it. We're really back to nineteen. -- I did it did actually goes back in 1977. The truth is that almost happened in 1973. This this is something that is really interesting to me and for years people dismiss this and said it was just a coincidence. I I disagreed all the way along the Virginia remember is the home of many of the nation's founders. And one of the founding principles -- checks and balances. Virginians and I think Americans don't like one party to get too much power. And they like to balance things like to check power. This is a way that Virginians have failed to check."

" Our well we have Bob Beckel on last last hour he was a democratic operative for a long time now university professor. He dismisses the importance of the Obama effect on the race in Virginia. The president -- campaign on behalf of -- leads the democratic challenger there and it doesn't seem to have done the trick why do you think."

" Well I love Bob Beckel he's a great guy but on this one I have to disagree with Bob. I don't think that the Virginia race or New Jersey or New York 23 I don't think any of these are referendums on Obama the only referendum -- for an incumbent president. Is his reelection race and that's not to 32. That's very different than saying. That the Obama factor is nonexistent in these races. He's very much a factor in these races I can guarantee one of the reasons why Republicans are so energized here in my home state of Virginia is because. They have strongly opposed the policies of President Obama on the stimulus on spending on debt on health care you name it. Ask average voters even today he has they're going to the polls. Asked them why they're there yes they'll say they like Bob McDonnell and they don't like get the democratic candidate -- But they'll usually bring up Obama at least the Republican voters who probably will constitute a majority in Virginia today. What about let's take a look at the New Jersey race you've got Jon Corzine trying to retain his governor's seat he has spent millions and millions of dollars. His own money and yet it's a neck and neck race with Chris -- to Republican challenger again why. Yes well -- I think that may be a referendum on Jon Corzine much more than Barack Obama. When you have an incumbent governor running for reelection people usually give either thumbs up or thumbs down to the incumbent. Jon Corzine is deeply unpopular because of the property. Property tax increases because of other. Controversies and scandals and his term. So I think it's more about Jon Corzine but it also tells you something if New Jersey which is a heavily democratic state. -- even come close to electing a Republican governor and the Republicans may well win in New Jersey that's the one to watch tonight it's the closest of the three big contest."

" An article in the New York Times says a loss there are talking about New Jersey particularly if it's part of this week he's going to produce a wave of Obama is in trouble commentary. And that he needs all kinds of political clout right now as he tries to get this healthcare thing passed. And the climate change legislation that he likes so much do you agree -- that analysis."

" Look it's inevitable if you have three contests. Virginia and governor New Jersey in New York 23 congressional if all three of the contest on one night. Goaded the Republicans naturally it's going to generate a wave of is Obama in trouble. Commentary that's that's the wave upon democracy works I think I can say that as a charter member. How it works both ways when Democrats win the three the the commentary it's -- in their direction so fair is fair. Well it keeps guys like you in business. Professors of politics -- it's really important you haven't wanted to Battenfeld thanks very much right up. Thanks a --"