Jobless Recovery?

" Bob for the first time in US history we may face a real economic recovery we even more job losses. You heard that right that is not good considering the unemployment rate right now stands at nine point 8%. Others argue it's more like 17% of he had in the part time workers and other people just given up looking for work Hillary she's a professor University of Maryland and chief economist for the US international trade commission welcomed our program Peter nice to see -- good morning. So I don't want -- I'm look at these definitions here -- a jobless recovery. Which means economy gets back in -- state we just don't have jobs. But now there's a theory that says the economy gets back on its feet. And we continue to lay people off how would that work."

" Well if the economy grows at less than 2% a year which could happen -- productivity growth would be more than enough. To accommodate you the ability to make more goods and services if you grow wanted to have percent a year. You're gonna shut about 500 to 600000 jobs a year if you grow at less than 3% the F productivity growth and labor force growth you might add some jobs. But he unemployment rate stays above 10% what is our growth rate right now Peter. Well last quarter it was minus zero point 6% we're expecting this quarter the consensus is about 3% which is good news but don't. Our most economists don't seem very robust growth. Because the administration has failed to take on. The issues that caused this great recession. This stimulus package is a disaster when it comes to. Creating jobs that it hasn't taken on the fundamental issues one thing at a time you say the stimulus plan Christina -- she was talking the other day right. She's though when I -- person what what you -- saying is that the employment rate could be quote painfully weak through next year. And then she went on the end of the largest effect from the stimulus plan. Com and acted last February. Is past due. Now -- think in my mid 2010 that we're still gonna feel some effects but she seems to contend otherwise she says the stimulus will no longer contribute to growth. By midway in 2010. How does that factor into our recovery. Well I don't know that I agree with there's simply because a lot of the stimulus money is yet out the door you're gonna get some push from the stimulus in 2000 intent. But the fact is we didn't fix the banks a lot of regional banks are failing they can't lend money to -- companies that really need it. And we had a huge and growing trade deficit with China which is destroying jobs in the midwest. At a record pace in China subsidizes exports Ben Bernanke and Paul -- have drawn attention. To their over about undervalued currency. Which creates an artificial push on their exports. Obama talked about it during the campaign but he forgot all about it as president when you talk about the banks I thought we cured that about a possible with our Intel was all about. What a -- here now -- We stopped a lot of money into the New York banks and permitting hedge funds like Goldman Sachs to make a lot of money. Which -- regional bank simply don't have a lot of much cash talk was intended to create a bad bank. As we've had bad assets off their -- and fed itself saddled. What a lot of non residential mortgages and not residential mortgage backed securities. So many of them are failing and -- cash strapped trying to regardless that may I mean at the regional bank little weasel like midsized banks right maybe medium size is small size. I'm in the -- and they hit if they can't make it what is that who what does that mean for for us. Well let me small and medium size businesses can't get the credit they need to respond to the opportunities in an economic recovery. They don't hire and the economy doesn't grow. You Obama administration has been very good at ensuring that ten large banks in New York have credited virtually our rates and make a lot of money. But it says are going to be 1% of GDP up there count that 1% that's huge article forty billion dollars. Meanwhile every weekend the FDIC closes a couple more regional banks shut them down you are big on an appetite for tax cuts. I'm not so when you come back we'll try and figure out what the appetite is rather watch him for making that happen. We're gonna watch that growth rate to NC at what point we get up above 3% Peter thank you for coming in today OK you make it understandable I appreciate that thank you. My pleasure thank."