Collision Course

Published: Wed, 30 Sep 2009

Description: Will Iran's defiance lead to military conflict?

Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

" Over here we're gonna talk a little bit about Iran now tensions rising there in just the last few days -- as you know has tested several missiles some capable of hitting Israel. Now the US is demanding that the Iranian regime come clean about their nuclear intentions."

" This is an important day in an important week for the Iranians they have decisions to make. They have. One up to -- that they can take."

" And if Iran chooses the wrong path could wore me next. Joining me now Fox News TV analyst and author of the war after Armageddon Ralph Peters. And Fox News military analyst colonel David Hunt so great to have the both -- you with me this morning good morning. -- Of colonel hunt. Let me start with you because these talks are gonna happen tomorrow the first time in thirty years that the US is going to sit down. With Iran and already we're hearing yesterday -- doesn't plan on exposing any information that we might need your thoughts."

" Well I'm glad we're talking don't you when you do this kind of discussed you can you can actually bring spies in the area. You can find it may jump in net before how we -- with a run blast ten years has not worked so that doesn't work -- you doctor Moore a gunfight with a I think -- probably want to talk to -- first before we all this talk about going to war with Iran. Which we can we didn't do that. When North Korea blow up how many atomic bomb what weapons of all three at launch."

" Missiles over the Sea of Japan when -- talk these guys first. Colonel Peters -- do you agree with the fact that we should sit down and talk with somebody like -- any judge who by all estimates is a nut job. Well I think -- on strike that you can learn a lot from talking with people that we've been talking to a -- approach very very long time. The -- or -- their masters this thing out negotiations. And Gretchen is you know in in Washington DC. Negotiations are they the drug of choice of the chattering classes and -- the political lead. So I think we're getting close to the wire where Israel is gonna feel compelled to move. Possibly within the next year."

" And how do you feel about that colonel hunt because that is what is at stake here I mean did -- run blasted off these missiles on purpose on one of the most religious days. That the Israelis were observing on Monday. And so what will Israel do and what will the US is -- either defending that are not."

" I don't believe Israel and then -- all due respect to -- was not smart this stuff that I am I. I don't believe it you're gonna do this I think that Israel's negotiating publicly whipped us to get. -- built stuff built into Gaza. Is that it yeah is the problem what this does. All -- like Hamas."

" which is the leaders in Palestine and a terrorist organization and Hezbollah. Terrorist organization inside inside Lebanon can be launched by Iran."

" To cause a lot devastation and our soldiers inside Iraq. Could be a danger all and the price of oil -- five to seven dollars and a lot of reasons why we cannot go. -- have Israel go to war with Iran. Over this and if there were Israel was successful safe. -- again -- for a week would only push back the nuclear business maybe three years to write so colonel Peters colonel hunt describes how complicated."

" This situation is with all of these other countries involved. And so doesn't this really come down to sanctions with Iran and trying to get Russia and China on board with that."

" Sanctions will not work. Russia even -- agrees to some will -- China will not agree to strict ones. Look I hope the colonel hunt is right that this will all be -- somehow. But the scenario I see the likely -- scenario at this point. -- We don't act sanctions don't work. His real face of an existential dilemma. Within the next year or few years feels compelled to risk the strikes. Iran retaliates against gulf Arab oil facilities straight of Hormuz. We -- it then it's a catastrophic mess of logging that Putin is a real winner because Russian oil and gas prices soar. And 400 dollar a gallon. 400 dollar a barrel oil is a bargain he would be. A regional conflict with catastrophic. International. Economic repercussions."

" All right colonel Ralph -- that's why -- we can do -- I I don't agree with you."

" Oh dear I think you got -- talk these guys first to put pressure on them."

" Politically and economically before we do this all right well obviously there are two sides of the story as we found out this morning colonel Ralph Peters and colonel David Hunt so great to see both of you thanks."

" Thank you and welcome."

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and they've told me for the chinas or one of Biden won North Korea fall part of all of us -- refugees pour into China. But the alternative visits to let North Korea to continue what it does. Build up its nuclear program for Japan to going to full scale panic and do its own nuclear program and now I'm not trying to -- one of its who you know but it's not so friendly neighbors would nuclear weapons and that seems to me. Worse than having the refugees I don't.

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have enough fuel to go anywhere so I just went back to North Korea this time. When he loved to be the -- communications that -- in fact North Korea to find out what that time back. Well that's why I wish we had boarded the ship I mean I you can never tell with the north Koreans there's always a risk it was a bait and switch but I have a feeling that it had something they didn't want us to know about and now have to find another way to get it out of North Korea you know event six party talks about agreements have had all that we've been at war for fifteen years. What do they

the short term. But frankly compared to the threat of a nuclear North Korea and the implications for China the nuclear Japan and the the other threats to its own stability. I would think there's a

think that possibility exists I think the Chinese are acutely aware that North Korea is an embarrassment to them they they fear the reunification of the peninsula. A reunited Korea I think we can convinced them that that's really not as much to worry as a continued nuclear North Korea .

What's the worst case scenario for this weekend. North Korea within reason I mean obviously they blew us off the map of the the next worst case scenario but. But tempers have

I think. Fundamentally they recognize that that if they were to attack South Korea particularly if they were to use chemical or biological weapons the retaliation would be unbelievable. Secretary Colin Powell when he was a civilian after he was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Used to say to people that if North Korea ever attacked the south with chemical or biological weapons that we would turn North Korea into a charcoal for cat. And I think even they understand that.

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