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'Guardedly Optimistic'

Title:

'Guardedly Optimistic'

Published: Tue, 30 Jun 2009

Description: Foreign policy expert analyzes Iraq troop withdrawal, warns of sectarian violence returning

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

" More on our top story now US troops officially packing up and leaving the cities and towns of Iraq it's a big day for Iraqi forces a milestone marks that you time for the government country's government. For the first time since the start of the war Iraq's police and army are charged -- these urban areas. This after six years of American troops fighting and dying in Iraq and what the Iraqis called the occupation of their nation. But this does not mean the US is off Iraqi soil -- not know soldiers coming home not any of them. More than a 130000. Americans are still right there in Iraq. Heading toward summer. In fact many are staying in the cities to help train the Iraqi Security Forces. Michael O'Hanlon -- senior fellow the Brookings Institution conservatively think take it says here in Washington and he joins us live from there -- good to see Michael. I shepherd it sounds like they're going to be a police force in the shadows waiting to be called by the Iraqis is that fair and a."

" Well I think your introduction was a lot more accurate frankly than a lot of the reporting because we are getting this impression you know that American forces are somehow pulling out of the cities having been there until yesterday. And no longer being there tomorrow it's actually a much more gradual process. And it's actually not an absolute process as you say they'll be force is still involved in training. I believe some will be Manning these joint security stations these smaller patrol bases along with Iraqis. Now a lot of our bases that are in cities that sort of just outside the Saturn. We'll still be there so the equivalent of having a base in Staten Island but not Manhattan. Is essentially what's going on keeping a lot of the larger bases in the outskirts and outer parts of Baghdad and other such cities so it's a gradual process it's important. It's symbolically important but it's not really you know a dramatic change from yesterday or last week or last month so what's the biggest concern now Sunni Shia violence sectarian violence within the country. Great question you know I think that. There is the potential for that to reignite but probably not in the short term I've been reassured to see that even in these recent days of additional attacks. You haven't seen retaliation along sectarian lines for the most part. You've seen more I sat. Random isolated events but sectarian violence could return. For example a prime minister -- he doesn't do enough to bring Sunnis into the government the so called sons of Iraq who are expecting jobs and basically haven't gotten yet also up north where the Arabs Kurds and Turks all claim the same land. There could be disputes. You know I'm guardedly optimistic we got a long ways to go in this things go guardedly optimistic they were -- now of relative calm. Yeah I mean relative calmness and it's the new normal on Iraq it's got 30400 people per month die. That's still one of the more violent places on earth but it's only one hand as violent as it was before the surge so. You know pick your poison it's it's much better situation -- civil war. But it's still a very crime ridden and occasionally quite violent place Michael O'Hanlon from Brookings Institution Michael it's great to see."

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of the surge that changed the dynamics on the ground and provided. Iraqi Government and Iraqi Security Forces the breathing room they needed. To take over on a day like this but it's also a testament to your right as the of the folks that does tore -- that the statue of Saddam. Who who who fought in the battle of Fallujah another major encounters all of that led to the conditions that we have here on June 30 2009. -- where we're handing over responsibility of the city's -- Iraqi Security Forces who I believe having seen them recently. Can be and should be and will be capable of patrolling the streets and ensuring that you know write it. Dramatic rises and sectarian violence don't occur in the Iraqi Government fills a void that American troops leave behind.
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bombings. Or sectarian murders. Security now is largely in the hands of Iraqi Security Forces and US more and more in a support role. But security forces are still being tested and local elections coming up. In January expectation is that there is going to be continuing violence as various. Factions. Try to influence the political process as well watching so of bombing like this who is behind it. Well now we continue to see activity by Sunni insurgents and al-Qaeda there was a bombing last weekend in -- them -- all the hallmarks of al-Qaeda coordinated string of bombings. The first one going off in front of a police station. Followed by allowing just a few minutes later as the first responders rushed in and then one. After that at a hospital. That left 25 people dead and 77 wounded. The military says foreign fighters are continuing to come in from Syria they also say Iran continues to funds train and supply Shiite militias . But they say the greater the greatest driver of instability right now is ethnic tensions between Arabs and Kurds. In the north
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an unmistakable signal that we will keep our commitments. With the sovereign Iraqi Government . As I said before we -- no bases in Iraq nor do we make any claim on Iraq's territory or resources. Going forward we will continue to provide training and support for Iraqi Security Forces that are capable and nonsectarian. We'll move forward with our strategy to responsibly remove all American combat brigades from Iraq. By the end of next August and to fulfill our commitment to remove all American troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. As we move forward prime minister Maliki and I have no doubt that there will be some tough days ahead. There will be attacks on Iraqi Security Forces and the American troops supporting them. There are still those in Iraq would murder innocent men women and children. There's still those who want -- foment. Sectarian conflict. But make no mistake. Those efforts will fail. Iraqi People have already rejected these forces of division of destruction. And American troops have the capability to support and flexibility they need to stand with our Iraqi partners on behalf. Of -- sovereign secure and self reliant Iraq. Because we believe that the future does not belong to those who would destroy it belongs to those who would build. To that in America strongly supports efforts by the Iraqi Government to promote national unity. Which will help ensure that people in all parts of Iraq can live in peace and prosperity. Prime
future. This progress has been made possible by the resilience of the Iraqi people and security forces. And also because of the extraordinary service of American troops and civilians in Iraq. Now were in the midst
they've been given and they forged countless partnerships and friendships with the Iraqi People . I know that this story is one the can be told by people in both our country and that the Iraqi People have been to work extraordinary hardship. In their pursuit of a brighter day. So many Iraqis and Americans have made so many
adventures effected its infrastructure effected the services that should've gone to the Iraqi People therefore the relationship between the two sides. As it did see and witness progress on the security front. And in combating terror.