Iran Roundtable on 'FNS'

" Hello again and happy Father's Day from Fox News in Washington. Here is the latest from Iran. According to state run media at least ten people were killed and more than 100 injured Saturday. When thousands of protesters supporting presidential candidate Mir Hussein -- that -- the country's top leader and demonstrated against last week's disputed election. Government make good on its -- crack down and a -- the protesters who were killed terrorists. Joining us to discuss the fast moving developments are three experts on -- democratic senator Evan -- a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Congressman Pete -- the top Republican on the house intelligence. And -- up for our with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Let's begin with those pictures from the streets of Iran congressman -- What are we saying in those pictures of the rioting according to your intelligence sources is this a general uprising. Against the government or isolated protests are we witnessing the start of a revolution. -- another -- and then."

" Square crackdown."

" Well I think that you're seeing perhaps both of those Chris you are beginning to see. This via. At the same time the real question here is what is going to be the response from the regime. It appears that since the Friday sermons. The intent of the regime. Is to be more violent and more repressive in cracking down these protests in stopping them -- now have to see. Which side is going to be more successful and although respond. To each other."

" And senator -- according to you're intelligence what is it that the protesters want as -- is this still. About getting most of the -- president or a new election or is it about a more general broader challenge to the ruling regime. Well they'd certainly like a fair and open election are -- are clear indications that that did not happen. But what they really want is a better life unemployment is very high I think it's about 30% inside Iran inflation is running in double digits. If you're a young Iran -- and at a very young population. And you look to the future there's just not much -- hope for you and particularly for women and that society. Who have been denied opportunity for a long time you're an educated woman there's just not a very bright future so. Most of the is a is a way to achieve a better life for them so fair election yes but what they really want is more opportunity within a very repressive autocratic society. Let's and pursue this this decide to -- about what's at stake here depending on which side wins. And I did -- and the supreme leader. Holiday and the revolutionary guard on the one side or -- the protesters on the other. What's at stake here in terms of the future of Iran and also in terms of relations with the US and even Israel."

" Well first I would say Chris that that harrowing images of the last several of the is really underscore for you the brutality of this regime and the bravery of the Iranian people. And and away the regime could. -- by winning what I mean by that is that they continue to come down with overwhelming force. They're losing legitimacy by the day. And what we may start to see is what we saw in the late 1970s with the -- And that is that the main arteries of this regime are going to collapse we might -- start to see it strikes from the merchant classes the bazaar. Strikes from the oil ministry which could really cripple this economy."

" And and and what does it mean if most of the were to win and because he is a product of they did that that he was the original prime minister with the Ayatollah Khomeini. He is a product of this regime so it with you really represent a dramatic change."

" What what I would say Chris is that to me -- Hussein with savvy of pre June 12 is different than -- June -- before -- elections. It took a fairly tempered. Moderate approach but now red lines have been crossed and his challenging the authority of the supreme leader. I -- the how many so I think that -- said he and his supporters want a fundamentally different Iran than they did than they were asking for pre June 12."

" Let me ask you about a different today aspect of that and is this the people versus the government because in fact there are some very powerful people in the ruling regime like Rafsanjani the former president was backing -- today. A couple of Ayatollah as -- laws against. Cracking down on the protesters so is this the people versus the the ruling clerical regime are there in -- splits within. That the clerics."

" What was unprecedented about this moment Chris is that historically we have seen the people versus the regime. Now we have unprecedented -- amongst revolutionary elites themselves. And I think the vast majority of not only be running people but also -- officials behind closed doors recognize that this death to America culture of 1979. As bankrupt in 2009."

" the congressman -- now that this has as you say become a full scale crackdown. On all the protest -- with a number of of the leaders of the protest being arrested. During the week and we gather over night. What's in the US do what should President Obama say and what should this country's. Policy be towards Iran."

" Well Chris if we look back to the campaign last fall. You know the there were those that said our president was going to be challenged in the first six months of his presidency. I think that's exactly what you're seeing the president is being challenged in a very different way than what many of us expected that he would be. And I think that the president has also prepared himself for this opportunity he's gone to Europe he's gone to the Middle East he's made the speech at Cairo. And yell what he did is he polished America's image now what he has to -- he has to use that new credibility. -- to speak out on behalf of the Iranian people this is now about. America it is about President Obama in and is about leadership this is a real opportunity this is potentially a game changer. In Iran it is an opportunity that the president in America have to leverage off. So so be a little bit worthless that a congressman books for what would you like to see. The president do particularly one that the fate of Iran in the situation there which side is gonna end up winning hangs in the balance. Well I think you're -- yesterday the president came out with a rip a written statement. That this president is a great or. This president needs to come out he needs to speak to the American people but more importantly he needs to speak to the people of -- ram. The people of the Middle East and he has to make a forceful statement on behalf of the people on the streets for freedom and democracy. No this is a country that very soon is going to have new fewer weapons this is they repressive regime. This is an opportunity to get some new leadership in here because the question with a -- going into the future. Is not about whether they will have a new -- weapon or not it is about what. What regime will have control of those weapons and whether they will be integrated into the international community or whether they will be a pariah in the international community. This is the opportunity for the president to. Help shape this debate and get new leadership into Iran."

" Senator -- you have been a long time expert on Iran and actually a proponent for a long period of time. On tougher sanctions you've been fact even to introduce resolutions that would call for sanctions against. Any companies that send gasoline back to Iran you really want to tighten the economic screws is this the time to do that."

" Chris it's been a time do that for quite some time to try and restrain their their vernacular program so -- was for that long time before this election. But let me say I think the president is handling a -- a rapidly evolving very complex situation about as well as you -- expect. He has put us clearly on the side of the reformers clearly on the side of -- free elections clearly condemned the violence but he's done it and a smart way. Because -- green was pointing out this regime is rapidly losing legitimacy with its own people. There's some polling data from other countries in the Islamic world suggesting they're losing legitimacy in the rest of the Islamic world. We should not let them change the narrative. 21 of being you know you meddling Americans American western imperialism that sort of thing because. Historically that's sort of narrative -- resonated that we might eleven to change the subject within Iran and in the rest of the Islamic world let's not let them do that so. We've got to be smart about this and I think the president has been -- so I'm in favor of tough. Tough action but if you just go unstable or for regime change -- a lot of tough rhetoric but you're not prepared to do any thing. Then we look -- and that's not a place for a great power to be congressman -- drug."

" You know one of the problems here is the fact that the president came into office with a diplomatic strategy. Was what some people called the grand bargain the idea that he would take regime change off the table. In the hopes that Iran would then agree to change its behavior on terrorism on nuclear weapons. How much is that is that diplomatic strategy dad because of the events that we've seen over the course of the last week if the Ayatollah common day and that President Obama -- it's not prevail. Should the US continue. Can the US continue to try to engage them diplomatically."

" Well what the president is doing I think he's stubbornly. Holding onto this believe that negotiations with the current regime is the best way forward. I really think and I do agree with senator -- here. That a combination of speaking out forcefully. And at the same time may be moving forward with -- sanctions. Will bring about the kind of change and -- to let us take advantage or what will let the Iranian people. This is about the Iranian people let the Iranian people take advantage. Of this opportunity that is in front of them. As to whether speaking out forcefully undercuts the voices of freedom. And the voices of protest. In -- I don't buy that for a minute. Are speaking out forcefully on -- by half LB regime is going to accuse us of meddling whether we do or whether we do not say -- But if we're going to do something we should speak out."

" Now let's look look backwards a little bit President Obama came under. Heavy criticism all this week for his cautious statements and I want to. Play a clip of perhaps his most controversial statement here it is."

" The difference between Ahmadinejad and Moussaoui in terms of -- actual policies. May not be as great as. Has been --"

" This is -- trip for first of all. Is that true the president went on to say either way we're going to be dealing with a regime that's hostile to the US do you believe that there is no -- Between what we would -- would most of the as -- as compared to what we happen would continue to face with Ahmadinejad. And how dispiriting. Was that statement to the protesters industry."

" Well look -- I do believe that was a misstep by the president and I think the White House acknowledges now in retrospect that was a misstep and if you've noticed the rhetoric has changed. But I didn't get that impression that this had made a tremendous impact. On the demonstrations and Tehran and elsewhere but but but but going back to the original question would there be a difference -- versus solid and has done. Absolutely and what we have to recognize that this movement is much bigger than me at Hussein was having this is not about me -- anymore this is about. That political and social and economic -- which have been -- any wrong. Threw for three decades now."

" Let's look at the -- how the statements of President Obama. And secretary of state Clinton have evolved this week here's a series of clips."

" It's not productive. Given the history of US and Iran in relations. -- be seen as meddling."

" Our intent is to. Pursue. Whatever. Opportunities might exist in the future. With Iran to discuss these matters."

" The government -- recognize that the world -- watching. This does not report several questions first of all in the speaks to something that that senator Bayh and congressman -- were were discussing. What about this argument that if the president speaks out it somehow empowers. And gives more ammunition to the Iranian regime. To say that these protesters are just puppets of the united --"

" Chris that is a big concern I have as well and that that's why I think the president's rhetoric so far has been well calibrated. And the historical analogy which concerns me Chris is he rock in 1980 to 1991. When George Bush senior and encouraged Iraqis to rise up Saddam slaughtered them and then the rest of the world. Been criticized Saddam for the slaughter but they criticize George Bush for encouraging Iraqis to speak -- I think this regime. Is looking for the United States to step into this trop so they have the license to slaughter the -- people and accused coming up of being American -- Because they're already saying this in fact you had president. All -- a shot today say to the US and Britain stop interference so whether we do it or not they're going to accuse us of doing. Chris I really defer to the leaders of these opposition movements themselves and -- on the opposition leaders and Iran and I've not heard from any of them. Who say that the United States should become directly involve -- also that the United States should continue to denounce. Human rights abuses and our -- should continue to be broadcast throughout the world. But none of them have asked the United States to play a more -- role and domestic -- going public to let let me try to wrap this up."

" With all of you gentlemen and and senator -- let me start with you. Where are we had it I mean I know it's almost impossible bit but your best guess and also obviously the intelligence you're getting where we had -- the regime be able to silence the opposition -- row. And if the regime is able to hold on to power will they become. Even more radical -- more moderate."

" My best guess -- the situation is evolving you know so quickly. Is that we're looking at a process of evolutionary change it's going to take some time. And we all hope that it will be sooner rather than later and it will get a legitimate democracy that wants to engage with the rest of the world tomorrow. A but the forces of the regime the military that the secret police of the gangs that they employ industry are such that it's that -- just not going to go away overnight so. But they're starting a -- mentioned to lose their legitimacy among the Iranian people and so we stand in solidarity with -- people. Don't metal they're going to accuse us of that no matter what would give them no credible evidence they can point to use of the Iranian people the rest of the world know. There were -- on this the right way that I think over time those figures will continue to grow within their government. And in the fullness of time we'll see more legitimate -- running in regime but -- as much as I wish I could say that's going to happen tomorrow. I think this is a process that is going to take some time to unfold they'll try crack down regrettably this is bad for the -- people. But it's also bad for the regime because they're losing -- both at home. And abroad through these repressive brutal tactics is congressman hopes for we have less than a minute left letting you share that with -- decide -- for your thoughts about where we're --"

" Excuse -- the I think we are moving forward. We need to stand with the people we need to recognize that we need of focus on what our strategy is going to be in the future this is a regime that's going to have -- weapons soon. We they are going to continue to be a brutal in a repressive regime. We needed now start getting the international community prepared to deal with that reality and to deal with -- much more effectively than what we had than what we've done over the last eight to ten years to try to stop them from getting -- weapons and mr. -- for. I want to just echo senate -- common sense -- there was spot on and I am hopeful -- the moment of tremendous fear and tremendous hope but I am hopeful. That the will love the vast majority of the line people will eventually be realized. Gentlemen we want to thank you all so much for coming in today to discuss. The latest developments there we will stay on top of the story thank you all thank you."