Road to Recovery?

" May have seen on our live -- blog from time to time I post a column called -- is a glimmer of hope it's looking for signs of revival in the economy. And is a glimmer of hope today and our president look at us. -- certain diseases. Larry yeah thank you very much President Obama for setting up my glimmer of hope today he went on to say this after his meeting with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. And Sheila Bair the FDIC a few others take a lot."

" We think -- Us. We don't want to get this."

" So if we don't -- absolutely convinced so that's good that's good right take a look at the three month -- targets of one of the indicators of course of how things are going it shows that the Dow. Has that you know some might call that of a -- bottom they're looking at and that Dow Jones industrial chart -- bring in our great. Panel today Peter -- as an economist at the University of Maryland and former chief economist for the US international trade commission. Robert Brusca is the chief economist fact and opinion economics and Eric bowling of course is the co host -- happy hour on fox business network. I just want to start with you you know let us discuss specifics when you look at this economy. What do you see that either is or is not telling you that we are hitting we're putting in some kind of a bottom here."

" OK well right now there isn't so much of that upper part of the V but what you have is a knowledge of history you have a sharp declines in. Employment."

" And now we're starting to see. The consumer spending for example came back in January stayed on February."

" Auto sales were up in March we've seen an increase in a leading indicators. We've seen jobless claims that he can come down a little bit hidden for jobless claims the clearest messages that they're not increase in the way they -- there are off peak."

" As I think that these are they spent a collection of statistics that are somewhat hopeful look hopeful -- witness a big increase in durable goods or I'll allow I'd say two very different kinds of experts -- first what I want to say with Larry Summers who is head of the White House's cut Council of Economic Advisers take a look at that."

" I think the sense. Of -- ball falling off a table. Which is what the economy has felt like. Since. The middle of last since the middle of last fall. Bomb I think that he's going to I think we can be reasonably confident that that's going to hand. Within the next few months. And -- no longer have that sense. A free fall."

" I think they -- to everybody because this is from my interview yesterday with Sylvia Browne she speaks to the dead. And predicts the future so I asked her what he -- going to happen here but she said I'm Mike don't yes yeah. I'm happy I can make you think the economy command so many of -- like this woman here are so worried about where things are going when."

" Macy -- I tell my people I was just at a lecture with 4000 people were arrested you don't quit watching the news. They think 10%. Of unemployment will lead still means there's 90% that are working."

" My mouth to -- airworthiness he had great recovery in June and the end of the year receiving a better --"

" I thought there you have it can't raise -- Sony brown you're there she said they will look not what do you think."

" Well certainly the pieces of the bottom or are taking shape in with the economy is -- thing. And I expect they'll be some growth in the fourth quarter however we're not going to have enough growth to compensate for all the jobs that we've lost them we're not going to get there until we have genuine bank reform. Not just giving the banks a lot of cheap money the land. And we're going to have to have some policies to truly addressed. Our trade deficit how much oil we import -- trade deficit with China has been pulled out the man the US goods and services I haven't heard Geithner. Nor -- talk about those issues I haven't heard the president talk about them until they do."

" not going to have a sustained recovery -- you know and I and I keep -- Eric -- about the late insurance company is the credit card companies and and the feeling that you know we may be here but that there might be another could tone commercial real estate that's my commercial real listening gap there's another Wendy -- all -- and connect."

" All due respect to my 83 economists in medium on the panel today however look here's what we have. We have things looking better we have things better than expectations remember on the way down. Things data points numbers housing unemployment retail sales consumer spending it all worse than expectations what's happening now the exact opposite -- that. We housing sales existing homes I had I am very happy about my alleged -- what I want my way. The savings consumers have made money in their pocket that's I don't demand when they start to spend that money that's very good city."

" what you're talking -- are sort of you know their their -- things you know they're a little bit of confidence some people spending money what I'm worried about is that there is reality in terms of downdraft in commercial real estate as Peter says or any life insurance companies or other sort of a grim reality that make chicken sand."

" Well there's always a grim reality in recession and recession things are always bad okay."

" But remember we have recessions and they and some people tell me about how we have a recovery the unemployment rate is so high while getting about of that kind of silly -- that -- reason you would never get a recovery. So what you'll have a powerful cyclical forces -- work if you look back after sessions what you see is that when you have. A severe recession you get a strong recovery. These wimpy U -- recoveries come out of mealy recessions we've had two and 1998. And in 2001. We now have a very vigorous. Recession and it's going to spotted very vigorous for I yeah growth in the first four quarters of at least 4%. Growth in the first four corners of at least 4% and go around the group ask you guys when you think you're going to see a real recovery. And also where you think the single best place to put your money as it if indeed that's happening. Peter Mary C the first."

" We're not going to see a real recovery -- 2011 and 2012 but we'll see some look next year the best place for your money is equities the market was greatly oversold. Don't underestimate America we will come back."

" I think we're going to start to see real growth in Q three we're going to have a growth forecast of over the three and a half percent and one of the quarter of this year and of course and the stock market rally is going to continue I think it's real I don't think it's a rally in a bear market I think it's a real rally and it's going to continue what about ability put your money was not market. Dow thirty you know what -- what -- I -- I think that does not caps are going to be -- I think that the market internals that I had an argument with."

" Embracing your midst of -- recovery it's okay can go down a little bit it can go up a little bit we've seen the lows and going forward. This is the most affordable time to buy a home you should be in real estate he should be owning real estate if you're in the market start doing their homework now."

" By home I'd like it actually has not sounded this positive as it sounds right now quite some time folks so. I think he'll end up basically grew Sylvia -- which is to be some comfort solid yellow. Safe here racing Bob Brusca an hour slowing things as they expect you."