Battleground: Virginia

" John McCain is still holding that rally in Fairfax Virginia his democratic rival Barack Obama also stumping in the state today here is why. Virginia a battleground state thirteen electoral votes up for grabs it's been a red state for a long time in fact. Virginia has voted Republican in every presidential elections in 1964. But that could all change this year the real clear politics average of polls across Virginia put Obama and McCain in a virtual tie. Joining us now a guy who knows that State's voters perhaps better than anybody Larry zapatero the director of the the University of Virginia center for politics. Let me throw at you some numbers from a Fox News Rasmussen poll just taken on Sunday Larry it shows that the favorability rating. Four John McCain at 49%. This is not sorry while -- is that this is. Voters. On 49% 47%. Two for Barack Obama when it comes to their vice presidential running mate Joe Biden and Sarah -- they are. Virtually identical 55%. Each it doesn't get much tighter than that."

" You know Virginia is a surprisingly close state. You know you're right John 1964 was the last time a Democrat carry Virginia however. Jimmy Carter lost it by only 1% 1976. Bill Clinton lost it by only two percentage points in 1996. It's shown signs of of getting even closer over the last eight years so you've got both candidates here and remember John McCain. Absolutely must hold Virginia those are thirteen -- electoral votes that he cannot afford to lose. I think he's slightly ahead here. Well he's got sort of have a groundswell of support from -- military population doesn't. Absolutely you've got fourteen point 7% of the state. Being veterans don't forget about the families of veterans and the veterans are older than average which means their turnout is higher generally. So that's a big vote not just in northern Virginia but really in Hampton roads down in the big military center of off look at. Portsmouth in Chesapeake Virginia Beach those areas what about the addition of governor -- to his ticketed seems to have energized team nationally what's it done in Virginia. I think it's helped -- solidify the conservative base here as elsewhere. Remember McCain back in February of 2000. Made his famous statement about Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell being quote agents of intolerance right here in Virginia. Now reverend Falwell made up with McCain before his death Pat Robertson those supported Giuliani. So I think for some of the fundamentalists and Arab the white fundamentalists a Christian they're about 16%. Of the vote in Virginia I think the -- choice was really critical for them."

" They're good what about showed the presence of Joe Biden on Barack Obama's ticket does that ring nominate any special bells in Virginia."

" Now I don't think he has any Virginia ties I see no special effects. The effect in Virginia as the same as it is nationally he feels that foreign policy hole in the resonate for Obama but I don't think there's any great electoral effect one way or the other."

" if you had to make a prediction Larry as things stand right now we're less than eight weeks out from the election what would you say Virginia's going to do."

" If the election were held today I think McCain would win it back to a three point. Ask me again at the end of October the one thing we know about politics as it changes every day."

" Yeah and we will ask you again I'm sure at the end of October Larry Sabato a University of Virginia center for politics thanks. For coming up."