Obama and Oregon: More in common than 'O'

Thursday, May 15, 2008

By JULIA SILVERMAN, Associated Press Writer

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PORTLAND, Ore. —

Oregon is fertile ground for Barack Obama, the self-described "change" candidate. The state that has led the way in everything from bike trails to assisted suicide is also the first to vote entirely by mail.

Oregon's 2 million-plus voters began receiving ballots more than two weeks ago, and 22 percent have returned them, according to the secretary of state's office.

The ballots will be tallied May 20 in the Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Election officials said turnout appears to be strong in Portland, its populous suburbs, and Eugene, home to the University of Oregon. That bodes well for Obama, who has drawn large crowds in stops in those places and who has outperformed Clinton among urban and young voters throughout the primary.

"There's very high intensity and interest, a huge volume of calls, more interest than we ever have seen in a primary election," said Annette Newingham, the county clerk in Lane County, which includes Eugene. Her staff is bracing for turnout that could top 75 percent, she said. That is a figure more often seen in general elections.

Clinton, assisted by her husband, has worked the small-town strategy that was so effective in Pennsylvania. The former president has visited eastern and coastal communities, hoping to counter Obama's strength in more urban areas. Their daughter, Chelsea, went to Corvallis, home of Oregon State University, to make inroads in the college vote.

The New York senator, who is scheduled to return to the state Friday and Saturday, has released a list of Oregon-specific promises. Many are aimed at rural voters: restoring federal payments to timber counties to make up for lost logging revenues; giving the state authority over siting liquefied natural gas terminals; thinning forests choked with young and dead trees.

Portland and its suburbs seem tailor-made for Obama. Residents are liberal-leaning, upwardly mobile, well educated and strongly opposed to the Iraq war. About 45 percent of the statewide Democratic primary vote in recent elections has come from the Portland area.

Obama will not be able to count on the kind of big turnout from black voters that has boosted his vote totals in some southern states. Blacks account for only 1.7 percent of Oregon's population, compared with 12.4 percent nationally, according to the Census Bureau.

Also, the rest of the state is not as young or as hip as Portland. Overall, Oregon's population is slightly older and has a slightly lower income than nationally, 2006 census data shows.

Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who is backing Clinton, said her visits to the state have helped raise her profile with the state's voters.

"I think she did a very good job when she was here, and that did have a leveling effect. I still think he's ahead in the state," Kulongoski said.

Obama's campaign has opened 20 offices across Oregon compared with Clinton's 10 and has drawn on an enthusiastic volunteer corps for weekend canvassing and door-knocking. The campaign claims to have registered 30,000 new Democrats, including former independent and Republican voters.

Obama has done better than Clinton among self-described independents in competitive primaries this year, 54 percent to 40 percent, according to exit polls for The Associated Press.

"Hillary Clinton, she never says uncle, never admits even misspeaking, whereas Obama, when he has had problems, he has tried to address them in a reasonable fashion," said Mary Deckert, a new home sales agent from Corvallis who switched from unaffiliated to Democrat so she could vote for Obama. "And I know people say, you can't just go around the world talking to rogue leaders, but I like the idea that we would have someone who would talk to people with whom we don't necessarily agree."

Clinton has trounced Obama among voters age 65 and over.

Consider Jean Monsebrowten, a substitute teacher from coastal North Bend, who turned out recently to see Bill Clinton. "This used to be a dirty, rotten, little industrial town that I loved," Monsebrowten, 73, said of her hometown. "Now, we sell art. It's been a difficult adjustment _ our children all have to leave."

She said she feels Hillary Clinton is "more of a known commodity" than Obama.

"I am concerned about who Obama will bring into his administration," Monsebrowten said. "I don't know who it would be."

Obama's most prominent Oregon supporters include Reps. Earl Blumenauer and David Wu, whose districts are part Portland, part suburbs, and Pete DeFazio, whose district includes Eugene. Rep. Darlene Hooley, whose district includes state capital Salem stretching northward to the Portland suburbs, backs Clinton.

Campaign operatives from both sides say female voters are key. Women are about 56.6 percent of registered Democrats in Oregon and tend to vote more reliably than their male counterparts.

Clinton leads Obama among women 52 percent to 45 percent in Democratic primaries where both have campaigned, according to exit polls. But in last month's AP-Ipsos national poll, the two were virtually even among females _ Clinton 44 percent, Obama 42 percent.

Stephen Delmore, an undecided voter from Philomath, a former logging center south of Salem, said he has been watching both Clinton and Obama closely.

"The longer it goes, the more you see what they are truly like under pressure, what kind of people they are," Delmore said. "She seems more stable, but I also like to be inspired, too."

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Associated Press Writers Brad Cain in Salem and Jeff Barnard in North Bend contributed to this report.