FOX News Exit Polling: Clinton's Core Base Still Loyal in Kentucky

Hillary Clinton has a loyal base and it came out strong for her in the Kentucky primary, according to early exit polling Tuesday.

FOXNews.com

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Hillary Clinton has a loyal base and it came out strong for her in the Kentucky primary, according to early exit polling Tuesday.

Among white women -- Clinton's core -- she was winning with 73 percent of the vote. Among white voters with no college education, another key group, she was winning with 74 percent of the vote. Seventy-eight percent of seniors said they were voting for her and among churchgoers, Clinton was leading Sen. Barack Obama with 65 percent of voters. Among lower-income voters, those making less than $50,000 a year, Clinton was winning 66 percent to 31 percent for Obama.

Atypically, Clinton won among younger voters, under 30, 40 percent to 47 percent for Obama.

Clinton has been emphasizing the "experience factor" throughout her campaign. Of the 23 percent who said this quality was most important to them, 92 percent were going for Clinton on Tuesday.

“She has credible arguments to make, and tonight she is going to get further vindication with her arguments,” said FOX News contributor Michael Steele, pointing to her loyal base. "What they're looking for is there might be a lightning strike leading up to the nomination," and won't likely give up on her anytime soon.

Emerging also is the extent that these voters won't give up: only 50 percent of Democratic voters in the Kentucky contest said they would vote for Obama if he faced presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in the fall, while 32 percent said they would vote for McCain and 15 percent said they would stay home.

As in other primary contests, the economy appears to be the number one issue, with 45 percent saying their family has been affected "a great deal" by the current downturn. Of those voters, 68 percent were choosing Clinton, with 28 percent going for Obama. About 20 percent were saying the Iraq War was the most important issue to them.

But Democrats voting in Tuesday's contest seem to be pragmatists -- 54 percent said Obama will be the ultimate nominee for their party, including 34 percent of Clinton supporters. However, they are not entirely happy about it: only 33 percent of Clinton voters said they'd vote for Obama in the fall.

Did the endorsement of Obama by former presidential candidate John Edwards last week sway anyone's vote? A split decision, it would seem: 45 percent said the endorsement was important to their vote, 51 percent said no. Of those who said yes, 51 percent voted for Obama on Tuesday.

Obama, despite his disadvantages in the the Kentucky race, is still beating out Clinton in the "trustworthy" category. Here, 47 percent of the voters are saying he is trustworthy, compared to 45 percent for Clinton. As for campaign tactics, 55 percent said Clinton unfairly attacked Obama, while 47 percent said Obama unfairly attacked her. In terms of values, 54 percent said Clinton shared their values, while 47 percent said Obama shared theirs.

On the other hand, 53 percent said Obama shares the values of his controversial pastor Rev. Wright.

Meanwhile, in Oregon, where the the voting is completely by mail, FOX News did a telephone poll of 1,200 Democratic voters over the last several days and found that Obama was leading Clinton 56 percent to 42 percent. Here, he won his core groups -- he won college graduates (about 46 percent of the Democratic voters there ) by 64 percent to 35 percent for Clinton.

Among women voters -- usually Clinton's core, Obama was splitting this group down the middle. The same with the seniors, another Clinton stronghold. In Oregon, she was beating him 55 percent to 43 percent.

Obama also was winning among union voters -- about 25 percent of the electorate -- 60 percent to 37 percent for Clinton. In terms of sharing the voters' values, 77 percent told FOX News that Obama shares their values, compared to 68 percent for Clinton.

Unlike the scenario in Kentucky, most Democratic voters in Oregon -- 57 percent -- said they think Obama is more electable against McCain, compared to 32 percent who think Clinton is the better general election candidate. Also in Oregon 82 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama over McCain despite their primary preferences, while only 12 percent said they'd vote for McCain.

Race played more of a role in Kentucky -- 22 percent said it was important to their vote -- while 10 percent of Oregon voters said race played a role.

Click here to see the raw data from the Kentucky exit poll.

Click here to see the raw date from the Oregon primary day poll.

 

RCP Poll

President Obama Job Approval

RCP Average: +5.6% Details
Approve 49.9%
Disapprove 44.3%

Congressional Job Approval

RCP Average: -37.3% Details
Approve 27.0%
Disapprove 64.3%

Direction of Country

RCP Average: -19.5% Details
Right Direction 37.7%
Wrong Track 57.2%