Many Demographic Distinctions Missing in West Virginia Race, Exit Polls Show

FOXNews.com

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Hillary Clinton kept her support among women, seniors, lower income and less-educated whites and rural voters, according to Tuesday's FOX News exit poll of the West Virginia Democratic primary race.

Blacks, young people, and urbanites, usual supporters of Barack Obama, were in short supply in the Mountain State, which handed a decisive victory to Clinton.

The poll found that Clinton ran in a state that has a custom-made electorate for her -- white, older, not wealthy, religious, rural people. Ninety-five percent of the Democratic voters today were white, and they voted 67 percent for Clinton compared to 29 percent for Obama.

Seniors -- a dependable group for Clinton everywhere -- were there for her in West Virginia, which is, proportionally, home to more seniors than any other state except Florida. They made up 22 percent of the vote, and broke for Clinton 66 percent to Obama's 30 percent.

What about the low income voters? They typically like Clinton, and in West Virginia the median family income is well below the national median. Those making less than $50,000 a year made up over half of Tuesday's voters -- and voted for Clinton 69 percent to Obama's 28 percent.

The so-called working class, too -- those with no college degree gave Clinton 69 percent of their vote, Obama just 27 percent. That's a 42 percentage point advantage. Clinton also won among those with a college degree, a group that usually belongs to Obama.

Obama also usually wins self-identified independents, but not here. Obama lost independents, 40 percent to Clinton's 53 percent. Except for one of her home states of Arkansas, this is the best she's ever done among independents.

Rising gas prices have hit hard in this state and campaign talk of suspending the federal gasoline tax proved attractive to these voters. While Obama insists the savings wouldn't amount to much help for middle-income families, voters in West Virginia showed they like Clinton's proposal: 63 percent think suspending the gasoline tax for the summer is a good idea and most of them -- 74 percent -- voted for Clinton. Obama got half of the votes of the 34 percent who think a gasoline-tax holiday is a bad idea.

Most West Virginians voting in the Democratic primary say they have been negatively affected by the current economic conditions -- 46 percent "a great deal" and 43 percent "somewhat." These economic voters showed more support for Clinton, 67 percent, than for Obama, 30 percent.

Clinton called on her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for her in this state that he won twice. Fully 61 percent said Bill Clinton's campaigning was important to their vote -- including 37 percent who said it was very important -- and 79 percent of those who were influenced by his appearances voted for Hillary Clinton.

Rev. Jeremiah Wright continues to be a thorn in Obama's side. Many voters -- 49 percent -- think Obama shares the controversial views of his former minister. Evidently, this is not a good thing, since 83 percent of the voters who feel this way voted for Clinton.

The big question of the campaign remains: should Clinton drop out of the race? Clinton voters are still holding out for a Clinton comeback -- 78 percent said they would prefer she wins the nomination, even if the race continues for months; 17 percent prefer the race ends as soon as possible, even if Clinton loses the nomination.

Potential trouble spots for the Democrats: 73 percent say they will be satisfied if Clinton is the nominee, but 46 percent will be satisfied if it's Obama. And speaking of trouble spots for Obama, 47 percent think Obama is honest and trustworthy; a majority -- 51 percent -- say he is not.

While registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in West Virginia, George W. Bush won the state in both 2000 and 2004, and political analysts think it will stay in the GOP column this year, too. If so, it won't be because of these Democratic primary voters.

Both Clinton and Obama beat Republican John McCain in general election matchups, Clinton by a much larger margin. But, when asked about a matchup between Obama and McCain, just 53 percent of voters today said they'd side with Obama -- and he will need far more than that to be competitive here in November.

The results are from the FOX News Exit Poll, conducted May 13, 2008, among 1,444 primary voters at 30 precinct locations throughout West Virginia.

 

RCP Poll

President Obama Job Approval

RCP Average: +5.6% Details
Approve 49.9%
Disapprove 44.3%

Congressional Job Approval

RCP Average: -37.3% Details
Approve 27.0%
Disapprove 64.3%

Direction of Country

RCP Average: -19.5% Details
Right Direction 37.7%
Wrong Track 57.2%