Pennsylvania Could Be Do or Die for Clinton, Dem Strategists Say

Hillary Clinton has to win -- and win big -- in Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary if she wants to stay competitive in the race for her party’s presidential nomination, Democratic strategists said on Tuesday.

FOXNews.com

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Hillary Clinton has to win -- and win big -- in Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary if she wants to stay competitive in the race for her party’s presidential nomination, Democratic strategists said on Tuesday.

Though most are predicting Clinton will beat Barack Obama in the Keystone State, the former first lady’s lead is dwindling there, according to a recent poll. A Rasmussen telephone survey released Tuesday shows Clinton’s lead shrinking in Pennsylvania to only 5 points, 47 percent to 42 percent. Just a week ago, Clinton was leading by 10 points, and in mid-March by 13 points, according to Rasmussen's tracking poll.

Democratic strategist Bob Beckel warned that poll numbers are often erratic and so are not reliable in predicting outcomes.

"I’ve never seen a year when the polls have been so out of line as they have this year,” Beckel told FOXNews.com on Tuesday.

"If you average out the polls we’ve looked at, she’s probably still within the 10-12 point range. I don’t buy the number in this latest poll, but I buy the implication of it for her campaign."

Beckel said he believes Clinton will continue her campaign no matter what the outcome is in Pennsylvania.

"I’ve long believed that she’s going to see this thing through to the convention," he said. "She needs to do double-digits in Pennsylvania — at least 10 points — to remain strong. And she should. It's a state that's almost tailor-made for her."

Should Clinton lose the state, which most political pundits say is unlikely, "there would have to be conversations on her campaign about dropping out," said Democratic strategist Kirsten Powers.

"I think the assumption is that she's going to win Pennsylvania. The question is by what margin," Powers said. "As long as she wins, she’s fine, but the bigger the margin the better."

But Juan Williams, senior correspondent for NPR and a FOX News contributor, said that if Obama continues to make headway in Pennsylvania, he might very well win the state’s primary — and, as a result, secure the Democratic presidential nomination.

"If he [Obama] wins Pennsylvania, game, set, match, we’re done,” Williams said, noting that Obama is still at a disadvantage in the state.

When asked whether Clinton is feeling pressure from Democratic Party elders to withdraw, Beckel, who helped engineer the superdelegate process in the 1980s, said, "If you had a secret vote of superdelegates today, I think they’d rather not have her in the race. But you’re not going to see that."

He said the superdelegates should "stop whining" over the contentious battle between Obama and Clinton, and, instead, cast their votes quickly.

"If they don’t have the courage to cast a vote then they should give their credentials to somebody else in their state who does," Beckel said.

Clinton campaigned in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, focusing her speech largely on the economy as she addressed President Bush’s plan to overhaul the financial regulatory system. She also criticized likely Republican nominee John McCain’s position on fiscal issues.

"His plan was not to have a plan," Clinton said of McCain.

"If he got the 3 a.m. call on the economy, he would just let the phone ring and ring and ring," she said, referencing a now-famous television ad in which Clinton's campaign portrayed the New York senator as the readiest candidate to handle a national security emergency during the dead of night.

In response, McCain joked of Clinton: "She keeps worrying about these 3 a.m. calls. I think a lot of the calls would come in during working hours."

Clinton continues to lead in every major region of Pennsylvania except Philadelphia, where the former first lady addressed voters on Tuesday. In remarks made to AFL-CIO members, Clinton described her "underdog" status in the race and compared herself to Rocky Balboa.

"Well, could you imagine if Rocky Balboa had gotten halfway up those Art Museum steps and said, 'Well, I guess that’s about far enough?'" Clinton asked the crowd.

"Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing the fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up. And neither do the American people."

 

RCP Poll

President Obama Job Approval

RCP Average: +5.6% Details
Approve 49.9%
Disapprove 44.3%

Congressional Job Approval

RCP Average: -37.3% Details
Approve 27.0%
Disapprove 64.3%

Direction of Country

RCP Average: -19.5% Details
Right Direction 37.7%
Wrong Track 57.2%