WASHINGTON -- Emerging victorious in a historically Republican Illinois congressional district, millionaire-physicist and Democrat Bill Foster wasn't shy about how he thought this race should be viewed ahead of the 2008 election.

"Back in the laboratory, this is what we'd say was a pretty successful experiment," he told supporters after his 53 percent to 47 percent win over Republican Jim Oberweis, who spent $2.3 million of his own money to claim the 14th District seat held for 20 years by former Republican House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert.

Republicans have been quick to warn against sweeping comparisons between the special election on March 8 -- Hastert left office before his term was up -- and the party's chances in the November contests.

"Anything can happen in a special election, because the results are not representative -- no one knows what the electorate will look like on Election Day," said Ken Spain, spokesman for the Republican National Congressional Committee.

But political observers -- and most importantly, Republicans themselves -- have a good idea what kind of disadvantages the GOP carries into Election Day. One is the extraordinary number of Republicans leaving Congress this year, opening up new opportunities for Democrats to increase their majority. While the number of retirements and resignations are certainly not rare -- 39 so far -- the disproportionate number from one party is. As of this month, 29 of those soon-to-be open seats are Republican.

"Republicans were already facing a difficult 2008 election, but the large number of retirements makes it even more difficult," said Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report. "It makes it impossible for them to win back the House."

Not all open GOP slots are prime pickings. Retiring Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Tom Tancredo of Colorado, David Weldon of Florida and Charles Pickering Jr. of Mississippi, for example, are leaving behind safe seats for a Republican successor. In Hunter's case, his son and namesake has a good chance of replacing him.

But a number of vulnerabilities -- primarily already-competitive districts where Republicans are exiting -- has caused some real uncertainties. And going into the 2008 election with a 232-197 disadvantage in the House, the exodus couldn't have come at a worse time for Republican majority-seekers.

"They have to be very nervous -- there's already the hole in 2006 to dig out from. The hole gets deeper when you add the fact that entrenched incumbents are retiring and you have to devote time and resources to hold on to those seats," said Craig Shirley, a Washington-based Republican public relations strategist.

The party's resources -- which were already behind the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by at least $30 million -- were stretched even thinner after NRCC Chairman Tom Cole announced earlier this month that the committee's former treasurer, Christopher J. Ward, might have embezzled upwards of $1 million dating back to 2002.

Cole, who has been besieged by internal party struggles and a $16 million debt going into the current election cycle, told reporters that the Federal Election Commission has been notified and an audit is ongoing. The committee also filed an amended cash report indicating the NRCC has $740,000 less than the $6.6 million it said it had on hand in January.

Money troubles have been dogging the party's efforts since the 2006 "tsunami" swept them out of House power for the first time since 1994.

Insiders are now grumbling about House members not carrying their weight in fundraising. Meanwhile, the party has been straightforward about pursuing millionaire "self-funder" recruits.

Republicans concede that at least 10 seats are vulnerable, including the Arizona district now held by Rep. Rick Renzi, who was recently indicted on federal corruption charges.

Others seats at risk for the GOP are those held by Rep. Heather Wilson of New Mexico, who is running for the U.S. Senate; Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, who announced his retirement shortly before the party's disappointing performance in the state's February primary; and several more in New Jersey, Ohio, New York and Minnesota.

"I think that it's problematic," said Shirley. "I think any sane person has to look at the atmosphere, the money and the lay of the land and come to the conclusion that barring some unforeseen miracle or disaster or whatever, that Republicans are probably going to lose more seats in the House and Senate."

Not All Departures Are Alike

An exodus among the party that loses control after an election is quite common, say insiders. Republicans who had enjoyed all the perks and authority of the majority may not be able to stomach the sudden relegation to the back seat. For GOP lawmakers, after nearly a decade in which Republicans led the House, Senate and the White House, going from an elephant- to a donkey-led Washington has not been easy.

"They tasted the majority ... they knew what it was like to be chairmen," said Greg Crist, former spokesman for the Republican House Conference, which was led by now-retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce, R-Ohio. Her district is considered one of the most competitive this fall.

Many blame GOP hubris, corruption scandals, President Bush's low approval ratings, the unpopular war in Iraq and natural election cycles for the party's fall in Congress. Whether the national mood has shifted enough -- and the party has redeemed itself enough -- to reverse 2006, seems unlikely, say analysts, and that has partly spurred retirements.

"I think (members) peek around the corner, and I think this applies on a number of levels, but they look at November 2008 and they don't even believe they can recapture the House. They aren't drinking the Kool-Aid," said one former leadership aide. "They're tired of making a hundred calls a day (for fundraising). They look at the blueprint -- 2008 is not going to be a watershed year. Looking at that, they say, 'What is the path of least resistance for me?' "

Of course, not all open seats are the result of embitterment. In some cases, Republicans are running for higher office. In others, personal circumstances made the decision easy. Pryce was postponing an inevitable decision, she said. She's a single mom who needs to be home more with her young daughter. Retiring Rep. Ralph Regula of Ohio is 83 years old.

But while in the past the party may have been successful at convincing these members to hang on for one more term, the reasons to stay seem to be dwindling.

On top of that, the uncertain landscape is making it harder for Republicans to recruit candidates to fill imminent holes.

"I am nervous about the number of Republicans who are passing (on running) for a number of reasons. So many attractive candidates for these offices are not running," said John Gizzi, political editor of the conservative Human Events magazine, who believes the mood of the country, combined with the amount of money candidates are expected to raise and the emotional turmoil of running a race today are key factors.

"The people who would be looking (to run), to take on a freshman Democrat, for example, have to look and know that the atmosphere is so poisonous for the Republican Party," Shirley said. "A lot of people are thinking it might be better to wait for another time."

Not So Fast ...

While not naive about their prospects, party officials say certain things could break their way. If public opinion about the war in Iraq, for example, improves over the next six months, it could have an impact on how people in certain districts vote. At least one poll -- the Pew Research Poll -- had the number of Americans who think U.S. can ultimately succeed in Iraq creeping up to 53 percent in February.

The GOP presidential nomination of Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has long appealed to independents, is also viewed as an asset. With the nod clearly in hand, McCain is now free to help fundraise and campaign for candidates down-ticket where it counts.

His help will certainly be welcomed in so-called moderate swing states in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where a handful of competitive races have resulted from GOP retirements.

The GOP is also eyeing a few Democratic seats, including freshmen Rep. Chris Carney's seat in Pennsylvania and Rep. Dave McNerney's in California. Both men took over heavily Republican districts after scandals tainted the incumbents. The right GOP challengers, along with McCain's help, could make a difference.

"We've put together a very strong class of recruits ... in a presidential year, we believe that our Republicans are in a good position to win those seats back," said Spain.

Republicans won't hesitate to echo "change" themes heard in the Democratic primary race. Spain pointed to the Democratic majority in Congress as having failed to exact changes in Washington they promised in 2006.

"We're playing to win and at the end of the day, we believe we will be in a good position to compete and win in 2008," he said.