Dems Navigate Minefield of Rules, Quirks in Vital Texas Primary

FOXNews.com

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are both aiming to make a stand in the delegate-rich Texas primary on March 4, but they'll have to navigate the state's tricky nominating process to make it work to their advantage.

The Texas contest is unusual because it drags candidates through a hybrid primary-and-caucus system and awards delegates based on a region's voter turnout history.

Even though Clinton has a seemingly built-in advantage as a result of the state's large Hispanic population, a demographic group that has traditionally favored her this election season, the idiosyncrasies of the nominating process could give Obama a boost.

Both campaigns are carefully weighing how the quirks of the Texas system work for them, and are urging their supporters to brush up on the process as well, to avoid a careless defeat.

"I had no idea how bizarre it is," Clinton told reporters this week. "We have grown men crying over it."

There are 126 pledged delegates up for grabs in the March 4 primary, with 67 more to be selected through a series of caucuses that begins once polls close and culminates at the state Democratic convention in June.

With just 89 delegates separating the two candidates, a strong performance in both tiers of the Texas contest could be critical. Obama is riding high on his 10-contest winning streak, but Clinton is eyeing Texas and Ohio, which vote on the same day, to turn the race around.

Bill Clinton said Wednesday in Galveston that if his wife can win in Texas and Ohio, she will eventually win Pennsylvania a month later and clinch the nomination. But he urged supporters to vote and caucus.

"This is a big deal. It would be a sad thing if she won the election in the daytime and it got taken away at night ... because we didn't show up," he said.

Speaking in Houston Tuesday night, Obama also encouraged supporters to vote twice.

"Not only do you have to vote ... but on election day March 4, you're going to have to attend the caucus at 7 p.m. to get us a few more delegates."

He also encouraged supporters to participate in early voting.

Obama's winning streak, which was reinforced with twin victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii Tuesday, was built on wins in diverse states holding both primaries and caucuses.

But the Illinois senator has proved particularly deft at navigating the activist-driven caucus process, which could bode well for him in Texas.

Campaign manager David Plouffe said Wednesday that because of the two-step process, Clinton could win the popular vote in Texas but lose the delegate race.

He said the process of delegate allocation also could favor Obama.

Under Texas rules, the delegates in 31 state Senate districts are distributed on March 4 using a formula based on past voter turnout -- areas like Houston, Dallas and Austin, for instance, get more delegates because of higher voter turnout in past elections.

But those districts also have heavy populations of black voters, which could benefit Obama since black voters have overwhelmingly backed his campaign in previous contests.

Obama is spending most of the week in Texas, saving Ohio for next week. He held massive rallies in Dallas and Houston and planned to tour South Texas on Friday in search of Hispanic support. The two candidates are debating Thursday night in Austin.

Hispanics make up about 25 percent of the electorate in the Texas Democratic primary, and they're a group Clinton is banking on. Latino Democrats made up 26 percent of the vote in California, and favored Clinton 71 to 29 percent over Obama, FOX News exit polls showed.

Clinton has spent most her time in Texas in the southern, largely Hispanic regions.

She has made two trips to Hidalgo County, where the Senate district awards just four delegates. She has left the rest of the state to her husband, who appeared in a dozen cities over the last week in East and West Texas.

But her state director, Ace Smith, said she would travel throughout Texas before the primary.

"There are some districts in Austin and Houston he'll do well in that have a lot of delegates. But there are a heck of a lot of other districts that have less delegates we'll do extremely well in," Smith said. "If we run a really strong race in Texas, the delegates are going to take care of themselves.

"We'll be everywhere," he said.

He said the campaign has a three-pronged strategy for success: early voting, strong turnout on March 4 and a good showing at the caucuses. Only people who voted in the primary are allowed to participate in the caucuses.

Recent polls in Texas show Obama trailing Clinton but in striking distance. An average of state surveys on RealClearPolitics.com showed Clinton with 50.2 percent and Obama with 42.6 percent. While Clinton still leads in individual polls, the margin has narrowed in the last two weeks.

Texas also offers 35 superdelegates -- party officials and insiders who are not bound by primary and caucus results.

The latest Associated Press tallies show Obama with 1,351 total delegates and Clinton with 1,262 in the race for the nomination. A candidate needs 2,025 to win.

FOX News' Shushannah Walshe and Major Garrett and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

 

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