Many Arizonans had wanted to run John McCain out of town on a rail last year because of his support for what many perceived as amnesty for illegal immigrants in a reform bill he had proposed, but while not all is forgiven, the senator is unlikely to lose his home state in Tuesday's primary.

"For those whom the policy agenda begins and ends with illegal immigration, they still have a problem with McCain," said Arizona Republic political writer Bob Robb. "For those who may disagree on illegal immigration, but look at a broader range of issues, he is in fine shape."

Since first being elected to Congress in 1982, McCain has never lost a race in the Grand Canyon state despite frequent clashes with state GOP leaders. As recently as last month, precinct committeemen ranked McCain next to last among Republican presidential candidates.

But Republican voters are not as conservative as party leaders in Arizona, and many, like Bruce Merrill, dean among Arizona political analysts, appreciate McCain the same way they did another ornery, independent senator who pursued the White House 45 years ago.

Merrill said McCain often gives the impression: "'I don't care if you like what I am doing or not, I am going to do it because I stay true to my principles.' And this is very Goldwater-like. That is what appealed to Arizonans about Barry Goldwater and there is part of that frontier mentality that says we don't like people telling us what to do."

But whereas McCain was once ahead by 20 points in his state, recent numbers show him in an increasingly tighter race against Mitt Romney, with Arizona's large Mormon population helping the former Massachusetts governor close the gap to 9 points in the latest Rasmussen poll.

That's still unlikely to overcome McCain's support among retirees, ex-military and Latinos who back him on immigration. Arizona's winner takes 50 of the state's 53 delegates to the national convention.

"He has been very clear and humanistic the way he talks about it," said Monica Lozana, publisher of La Opinion newspaper. "Especially as a senator from Arizona, there is a reality he understands that many of the other candidates don't."

That is the double-edged sword for John McCain -- his views on immigration may hurt him in the primary, but his appeal among 18 million eligible Hispanic voters could help Republicans in November, robbing Democrats of a critical and potentially decisive swing vote.

FOX News' William La Jeunesse contributed to this report.