Exit Polling Explains How Obama Won South Carolina
By Dana Blanton
FOXNews.com
Saturday, January 26, 2008
By Dana Blanton
Barack Obama claimed his second clear victory of the primary season on Saturday. After losing in New Hampshire and having a mixed showing in Nevada, Obama's win in Iowa was starting to feel like the distant past. In South Carolina, blacks, women, young people and voters looking for change all contributed to his latest success.
Black voters, who made up 53 percent of the electorate in South Carolina -- up from 47 percent in 2004 -- overwhelmingly backed Obama over fellow front-runner Hillary Clinton by 80 percent to 18 percent.
Clinton (38 percent) and Edwards (38 percent) split most of the vote among whites (45 percent of the electorate, down from 51 percent in 2004), which could point to a potential problem for Obama in future races -- although he did take 24 percent of the white vote today - and it's important to remember he performed well among whites in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Women were more likely to vote for Obama (53 percent) over Clinton (30 percent), although this is largely due to race. Black women accounted for 33 percent of the electorate, and they supported Obama over Clinton, 79 percent to 19 percent. Among white women, Clinton won by 44 percent to 34 percent for Edwards and 22 percent for Obama.
Similarly, Obama had a clear advantage over Clinton among black men (82 percent to 15 percent). Among white men, Edwards (43 percent) and Clinton (29 percent) outperformed Obama (27 percent). Overall, a 55 percent majority of men went for Obama, while Clinton (23 percent) and Edwards (22 percent) divided the remaining vote evenly.
As in previous contests, Obama also won among young voters under age 30 (68 percent to 23 percent for Clinton) and those living in households with income $50,000 and over (50 percent to 27 percent for Clinton).
Senior voters age 65 and over are a group that has strongly supported Clinton in previous contests; they made up 17 percent of the electorate and continued their support of the former first lady, although with a bit less strength; 40 percent went for Clinton and 32 percent Obama.
Democrats in the Palmetto state would be satisfied with either front-runner as their party's presidential nominee. Fully 83 percent would be satisfied with an Obama nomination, while 77 percent would feel the same about Clinton as the nominee. The real difference comes among those saying they would be very satisfied - 61 percent if Obama wins the nomination, compared to 40 percent if Clinton does
The public bickering between Obama and his opponent's husband received significant media coverage, but how did voters feel about President Bill Clinton's role in the campaign? The former president may have helped his wife, but not by much. A quarter of voters (26 percent) said Bill Clinton was very important in deciding their vote, and of those 46 percent backed Hillary Clinton and 43 percent Obama.
All in all, majorities of South Carolina voters said they think the country is ready to elect a black president (77 percent) and a woman president (76 percent). Furthermore, 42 percent think the country is definitely ready for a black president, while 34 percent say definitely ready for a woman president.
Nearly three-quarters of whites (70 percent) think the country is ready for a black president, while fully 83 percent of blacks think the country is ready to elect an African American to the White House.
Most men (76 percent) and women (76 percent) think the country is ready for a female president.
South Carolina voters (by more than a 3-to-1 margin) said they wanted a candidate who can bring about needed change rather than one who has the right experience. Among change voters (53 percent), Obama outperformed Clinton, 75 percent to 15 percent. For those looking for a candidate with experience (15 percent), they backed Clinton over Obama by 83 percent to 7 percent.
The economy is the number one issue in South Carolina, not surprising for a state where the unemployment rate is a point and a half higher than the national average. Over half (53 percent) picked the economy as the most important issue, and those economy voters were much more likely to vote for Obama (52 percent) than Clinton (29 percent) or Edwards (19 percent).
In 2004, John Edwards beat John Kerry by 15 points to win the South Carolina primary. Today, Edwards, who was born in the state, came in a distant third.
These results are from the FOX News Exit Poll, conducted January 26, 2008 among 1,905 Democratic primary voters at 35 precinct locations throughout South Carolina today. Voters were questioned as they exited their election sites.
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