Low Turnout in Michigan Primary Could Help Romney
Turnout for the 2008 presidential primary looked to be low in Michigan Tuesday, and as a result no one is sure who should be in high spirits.
FOXNews.com
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Turnout for the 2008 presidential primary looked to be low in Michigan Tuesday, and as a result no one is sure who should be in high spirits.
Still, Mitt Romney is keeping his spark lit, hoping his native state will catapult him in the Republican race ahead of the South Carolina primary this Saturday, Florida's Jan. 29 primary and Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.
Romney and John McCain are neck-and-neck in polling in the Great Lake State, where only the race for the state's 30 GOP delegates seems to matter. Democratic delegates are not being seated at the national convention and most Democratic candidates withdrew from the race, leaving Hillary Clinton, Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich the only active contenders on that ballot.
Watch live coverage of the Michigan primary on FOX News at 8 p.m. ET with Brit Hume and his All-Star cast of panelists, followed by a special edition of Hannity & Colmes at 10 p.m. and The O’Reilly Factor at 11 p.m.
About 20 percent of eligible voters were being counted on to show up at polling stations across the state whose weather was overcast, snowy and frigid in temperature.
For Romney, whose father George Romney was a well-liked governor in Michigan, the battle could be a new beginning or the beginning of the end.
"This is the day that's going to change, I believe, the politics in the nation, as we get ready to select our nominee. I think Michigan is going to vote for a Romney again. I'm planning on it,"Romney said.
In the latest RealClearPolitics average of Michigan polls, Romney is leading McCain 29 to 26.3 percent. Mike Huckabee is at 16.3. Everyone else -- Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani -- is under six points.
Last-minute polls and low voter turnout on Election Day could slightly favor Romney, who inched ahead within the margin of error in the last few days. Exit polling so far offers only limited insight.
According to FOX News exit polls, of those voting in the Republican primary, 25 percent are independents and 68 percent are Republicans. The independents so far like McCain, going for him 34 percent to 23 percent for Romney. Of that group, 20 percent support said they support Paul and 15 percent chose Huckabee.
The biggest driver for Republicans to go to the poll is the economy. Slightly more than half -- 55 percent -- of those polled said the economy is the most important issue to them. Of those voters, 37 percent voted for Romney compared to 30 percent for McCain and 14 percent for Huckabee.
Part of Romney's late surge is attributed in part to his blasting McCain as slow to champion an economic recovery in hard hit Michigan, capital of the nation's automotive industry.
"I'm not willing to stand by with an attitude of pessimism and watch jobs leave Michigan," he said on Tuesday, the last contender touring the state and the only one watching the returns from Michigan.
Until recently, McCain warned Michiganders repeatedly that some manufacturing jobs that have left are not coming back, and only when Romney inched ahead in polling did McCain pivot and begin talking up new jobs and new technologies.
On Tuesday, he downplayed political expectations and looked beyond Michigan.
"I think wins are always important but we're in this for the long haul," the Arizona senator said.
McCain is looking for independent and crossover Democratic votes in Michigan's open primary. In 2000, they made up 17 percent of his winning vote total there."If independents and Democrats and libertarians and vegetarians and Trotskyites all turn out to us then I think that's a signal that we can do well in the general election," he said.
To rally support, 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee and McCain pal Joe Lieberman, who won his own Senate re-election after filing as an independent following a loss in his 2006 Connecticut primary, urged other-than-Republicans to come out and vote for McCain.
Not counting on the race results is Huckabee, who also visited two polling places, tossed a few snowballs and downplayed expectations by casting a likely third place as a victory over his better known and funded rivals.
"We wanted to show that we're in play even in a northern industrial state and quite frankly moreso than people would've expected, especially when you consider John McCain won here eight years ago, Mitt Romney's from here," Huckabee said. "It's not like I can go around and throw my dad's name out and make that open a door."
Thompson stayed in South Carolina, where he has begun to get traction. That has put him on the offensive against both McCain and Huckabee.
"I think when you look at the approach of Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain, they clearly are moving away from what I consider to be the sound conservative constitutional traditional principles that the Reagan coalition was founded upon," he told FOX News.
Thompson did not aggressively compete in Michigan, and McCain and Huckabee left for South Carolina during the day to get a leg up there.
In the Palmetto State, the McCain campaign has activated its "Truth Squad" to push back against what it calls "scurrilous" anonymous attacks on McCain. The squad was activated Tuesday to counter claims that turned up in mailboxes, under car windshield wipers and in e-mails that said that while he was a POW in a North Vietnamese prison camp, McCain collaborated with his captors.
The campaign calls that an utter lie, and determined to make sure it doesn't happen again, McCain is promising to fight back against any more allegations like it or others blamed for hurting his 2000 presidential campaign.
FOX News' Carl Cameron contributed to this report.
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