We're past the point in the race where national polls tell us much. Ted Cruz's surge has landed him in first place in one Iowa poll, tied in another, and second place in a third.

Cruz and Donald Trump atop the polls has got to cause a heart attack in the GOP establishment — and that's good news for Rubio, who is the most natural candidate for the party elite to unite behind.

With less than two months until Iowa, here's who matters most in the race for the nomination.

Timothy P. Carney, the Washington Examiner's senior political columnist, can be contacted at tcarney@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.