There's widespread agreement that the Islamic State attacks in Paris could shake up the GOP primary. But nobody knows how.

Maybe it will give a boost to the war hawks like Rubio. Maybe it will help the immigration hawks like Cruz and Trump. Then there's the idea that Jeb Bush will benefit as the "grownup in the room." On the other hand, it was the establishment of the GOP (together with the Democratic establishment) whose foreign policy helped create the Islamic State.

Entering the Holiday season, here's our assessment of who matters most in the GOP race.

Timothy P. Carney, the Washington Examiner's senior political columnist, can be contacted at tcarney@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.