This is the scariest poll of the year for Democrats

Put aside all the daily campaign controversies, and the 2016 election will hinge on one thing: Will the coalition of voters who twice showed up in large numbers to elect President Obama turn out to vote for Hillary Clinton, the assumed Democratic nominee?

Horse race polls, favorability ratings, those will all fluctuate many times between now and next November. But if Clinton can't find a way to engage unmarried women, millennials and minority groups — it's going to be over for her.

That's why this Democratic poll released on Monday, taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research on behalf of several liberal groups, should be seen as so troubling for Democrats.

Though, on the surface, it points to a real opportunity for Democrats to retake control of the Senate, beneath the surface it shows a lack of interest among millennials, unmarried women and minorities relative to the interest being shown from more traditional Republican voting blocs.

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