It seems like ancient history now, but the Republican presidential race was supposed to be a contest between conservatives and the party establishment. That's how competitive GOP primaries frequently go. And that's how it appeared 2016 would go as well.

The expectation was that we would see two primaries within a primary, with Jeb Bush and Chris Christie potentially vying for establishment support while Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul were among the competitors in the conservative primary.

Donald Trump and Ben Carson upended all that. Walker is already out of the race, and some of the previously mentioned candidates are barely clinging to life. Bush is looking like the weakest establishment candidate since Nelson Rockefeller lost to Barry Goldwater in 1964.

Now it's outsiders versus insiders. So far, the outsiders are winning in a walk. The three candidates who have never held elected office are averaging close to 55 percent of the vote nationally. The 11 candidates who have held office are winning 30 percent. The early state numbers aren't much different.

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