Potential Look at How the Next Two Big Health Care Votes Might Go

The vote a bit ago on the “rule” could portend how the next two big votes will go down.

The vote was 224-206. All but one member, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), voted. The speaker historically does not vote unless it’s a big issue or a topic of personal interest.

Below is a list of the Democratic “noes” on the rule. There were 28. And what’s interesting is that this list is consistent with those whom we either had down as a no for tonight…or who were undecided this time and voted no in November.

There are 28 Democratic noes here. If all Republicans vote no, Democrats can lose no more than 37 of their own members without jeopardizing either of these votes.

If the Speaker votes (which I expect she will on such a big issue), that could make the votes 225-206. The vote in the fall was 220-215.

Of course, we can’t predict the future. But those listed with an asterisk below are lawmakers who voted yes in November and are confirmed by FOX as noes this time.

They are: Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-NY), Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Stephen Lynch (D-MA), Harry Mitchell (D-AZ) and Zack Space (D-OH).

We have one anomoly. Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM) voted no in November, yet voted yes on tonight’s rule. However, he is officially a “no” vote.

Adler (NJ) NJ

Arcuri NY*

Barrow GA

Boren OK

Boucher VA

Bright AL

Chandler KY

Childers MS

Davis (AL) AL

Davis (TN) TN

Edwards (TX) TX

Herseth Sandlin SD

Holden PA

Kratovil MD

Lipinski IL*

Lynch MA*

Marshall GA

Matheson UT

McIntyre NC

Melancon LA

Minnick ID

Mitchell AZ*

Nye VA

Ross AR

Shuler NC

Skelton MO

Space OH*

Taylor MS

FOX News' John Brandt contributed to this report.