It’s a losing strategy; one that promises even bigger losses to come. If GOP front-runners continue cultivating only white non-Hispanic voters, they will guarantee Democrats another general election victory — especially true if they continue to demonstrate the excessive and unnecessary need to appease those more extreme voters by bashing immigrants and minorities.
It’s causing more minorities to grow resentful, thereby diminishing an already dwindling pool of black, Latino and Asian potential GOP voters. Appeasing one part of the electorate by diminishing, offending and even abandoning another is not just a recipe for failure — it’s a recipe for doom.
Why? Let’s look at the numbers on the chart below. White non-Hispanic voter totals, despite still being the largest voting block, are declining. So much so that, as you can see in the illustration, their numbers seemed to plummet in the most recent presidential election — from roughly 100 million in 2008 to approximately 98 million in 2012.
That means, as you can see in the next chart below, that average growth among white non-Hispanics voters since 2000 has hit an unimpressive all time low of 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, within the same time frame, growth among the top three minority groups in the U.S. is up to 11.3 percent, 24.3 percent and 17.6 percent respectively. Minority voting blocks are growing much faster and will continue to do so for two reasons. Their average ages are significantly younger than whites, as are their fertility rates.
Now, let's plug in the data from the most recent election to examine how each group votes. The chart below shows that the GOP received 49 percent of all white votes — a majority no doubt. However, it received only 7 percent of black votes, 25 percent of Asian votes and an all time low of 27 percent of Hispanic votes.
If those numbers hold and the same percentages of white non-Hispanics, Blacks, Asians and Latinos vote as they did in the last election and as they’ve been trending, Democrats will win the next election by a margin of 9.3 percent.
Keep in mind, that’s assuming minorities vote as they did with Mitt Romney as the GOP candidate. Romney never exactly ingratiated himself to minority groups, but he also didn’t call Latinos rapists. Nor did he want to expel or keep out all Muslims. And he never tweeted far-fetched incorrect numbers showing black people as killers of white people.
What is worse for the GOP is that Donald Trump’s success (or stench) is sticking to the Republican Party and in many ways the party is sticking with Trump. Polls show that, at least for now, the candidates whose messaging most resembles that of Trump remain higher in the polls than those who don’t.
The takeaway: If thought leaders and more forward-thinking Republicans don’t change this course – if they don’t find a way to stop Trump from sabotaging their cause – the Grand Old Party will fall off a cliff in 2016, making the 2012 defeat of Mitt Romney look like a cake walk. Why? Basic math.