Published October 09, 2012
Yes, you read that headline correctly. I am a Las Vegas oddsmaker (and former Libertarian vice presidential candidate) and here's why I am so boldly predicting a Romney landslide.
In November of 2004, only days before the presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax magazine called it the most accurate prediction of 2004.
In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.
In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP presidential nomination and go on to win the presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders -- Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for president. It seemed no one believed in Mitt. No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast forward to Spring 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP nomination, but trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide on Election Day, November 6.
Fast forward to June 2012, when experts predicted a defeat for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).
For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in almost every poll, especially in the all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney victory. Today I’m making it official:
I’m doubling down. Mitt Romney will win the presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
In the days before the first presidential debate, polls showed Romney trailing badly in most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one, the polls are wrong. They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite simply they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama.
After Romney’s overwhelming victory in the first debate he now leads, or is dead even in battleground states where, only days before, he was supposedly way behind. My contention is a 1 point Romney lead in those Democrat-skewed polls is really a comfortable 5 to 7 point Romney lead on election day.
There are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on election day:
This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans. The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak the rich, demonize the business owners, policies.
I predict the same result on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide.
And If I'm wrong- God help the United States of America.