Updated

Republican Bob Turner’s surprisingly-big win Tuesday in New York's Ninth Congressional District is actually no surprise at all.

Why?

Because this is the seat of former Democratic Representative Anthony Weiner, whose amoral, disgusting – and shameful (although not criminal) – behavior in compulsively sexting pictures of himself to woman all over the nation brought unwanted attention to New York’s 9th Congressional District.

Back in 1980 I ran against another liberal, Jewish Democrat – Congressman Lester Wolff – in Queens -- who had held his seat since I was 11 years old. He was deemed un-beatable. But he, too, had brought shame to his community by being the Congress’ Junket King – taking hundreds of trips all across the globe – and conducting personal business on these trips - at taxpayer expense in the midst of a horrible economy.

And President Jimmy Carter – like President Obama today – appeared to American Jews to be anti-Israel. Remember Carter’s U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young secretly meeting at the PLO’s HQ in New York City?

So there was in 1980 – and is this morning – a toxic brew that is fatal to a Democrat:

1) “Disgraceful” behavior by a Democratic officeholder that brings shame to his constituency.

2) A deteriorating economy which sours the voters.

3) A Democrat president who appears to be betraying Israel.

Thus – 30 years ago – I became Congressman John LeBoutillier – Republican of Queens.

And today: Newly minted Congressman-elect: Bob Turner, Republican of Queens.

Former Republican Rep. John LeBoutillier represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1981-83. He is currently a Fox News contributor and co-hosts "Campaign Confidential" with Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell – every Monday at 11 a.m. on FoxNews.com Live.