President Obama, Prepare for a Political Earthquake

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Chris Christie, the Republican nominee for Governor in New Jersey, beating the incumbent Democrat John Corzine by 4 points, even with a third party conservative in the race drawing over 10 percent of the vote.

In Virginia, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell is so far ahead of his Democratic rival Creigh Deeds that Democrats have already begun to argue on the front page of  The Washington Post who is at fault for blowing that race. Overlooked in all coverage of the race for governor is that conservative Ken Cuccinelli, long a stalwart leader for both taxpayers and social conservatives in Virginia, is heading for an even bigger win for Attorney General. With the Virginia governor constitutionally limited to one term in the state, and the Attorney General’s office an historic launching pad for gubernatorial runs, the developing Cuccinelli landslide has more immediate political significance than it would in other states.

In a three-way special congressional election in the 23rd District in New York, a poll on Tuesday showed the Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman beating both the Democratic Party candidate and the liberal Republican in that race, with a 5 point lead, up from a four point lead in poll released on Monday.

Ballot initiatives in two liberal states this November will also have national implications. Liberal Maine is considering a measure that would adopt Colorado’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) for that state. The measure would limit state spending growth to the rate of population growth plus inflation. Tax revenues growing faster than that would be rebated back to taxpayers. State officials could seek a referendum to increase taxes beyond the limit if that was thought necessary.
Last fall, Barack Obama beat John McCain in a 17 point landslide in Maine. But a recent poll showed the TABOR tax limit winning by a 14 point margin. The same TABOR tax limit will also be on the ballot in November in liberal Washington state, where Obama also won a 17 point landslide last fall. The latest poll there showed TABOR winning by a 30 point margin, 61% to 31%.

If all these trends hold true on Election Day, the result will be a political earthquake dramatically upsetting the balance of power in Washington. -- If that happens, here's what will come next: Expect moderate Democrats in Congress to bolt off the reservation, running from the ultra-liberal Obama agenda on taxes, the budget, cap-and-trade, card check, even the health care overhaul scheme. Then, Obama’s domination over Congress will crumble and alternative conservative ideas will gain momentum.

What's even more significant about Tuesday's elections is that stage will have been set for an even bigger political earthquake in 2010. Republicans will be in much better shape to recruit good candidates and raise more money. Further adverse results for President Obama’s foreign and domestic policies could produce an even bigger Republican landslide than in 1994.

Conservatives, tea party activists, taxpayers, small businessmen and others need to pay attention to the growing importance of next week’s elections. I urge everyone to get out to vote in these races. Get your like minded friends, relatives and neighbors out to vote as well. Volunteer to help. Maybe you can even provide last minute campaign contributions. Maybe you can engage in fundraising or organize additional volunteers.

This is a real Paul Revere moment. As Brutus said in Shakespeare's "Julius Caesar": "There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries."

Peter Ferrara served in the White House Office of Policy Development under President Reagan and as Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States. He is a frequent Fox Forum contributor.

Peter Ferrara is a Senior Fellow for the Heartland Institute, and a Senior Policy Adviser for Budget and Entitlement Reform Policy for the National Tax Limitation Foundation.  He served in the White House Office of Policy Development under President Reagan, and as Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States under President George H.W. Bush. He is the author of "Power to the People: The New Road to Freedom and Prosperity for the Poor, Seniors and Those Most In Need of the World’s Best Health Care" (The Heartland Institute, June 15, 2015).