With but a day to go of this year, let's all make a resolution to ignore the consensus next year.
And remember all the sure bets that didn't pan out this year.
Like Brazil being a lock to win the World Cup. It got crushed by Germany 7-1, and didn't even make the final.
Like Scotland, all but guaranteed to break away from the United Kingdom. It voted to stay in the United Kingdom.
Like Republicans maybe gaining a couple of seats in the Senate, try 10 seats, and now controlling the Senate.
Like the New York Yankees destined for the World Series in Derek Jeter's last year failing to make so much as the playoffs this year.
Like Jimmy Fallon sure to fail on "The Tonight Show" at last check, doing pretty well on "The Tonight Show."
And like Robin Williams, a sure-triumph returning to TV then a series canceled, well then gone and all reported on TV.
It's weird this thing called time. It makes fools of so many of us all the time.
Those who are so sure of what will make history only to forget it is the things we don't see coming, that define history.
So word to those who buy presidential poll snap shots.
Remember they're only as good as the time they're snapped. Then they're shot.
Just like the ones who said Hillary Clinton was a lock for president eight years ago, until she wasn't.
Kind of like the ones who said her husband was anything but a lock for president 22 years ago, until he was.
Like those who feared a Y2K disaster 15 years ago that never happened.
Or said we'd never be attacked on U.S. soil, until on September 11, 2001, it did happen.
You'd think by now, we'd learn not to trust a consensus that never seems to get it quite right.
All those movie critics who insisted a way-over-budget "Titanic" would sink, only to soar.
Or the politicians who claimed Vladimir Putin was no threat, only to threaten.
The same experts who told us we had terrorists on the run, until it appeared we did not.
Or that we didn't have to worry about hack attacks getting out of control, until it appeared we did.
I guess I'm stating the obvious reminding us not to be oblivious to what is obvious what is history.
How it is defined not by events we saw coming, but precisely those we did not.
We could do worse than remember that history.
Because somehow we always keep repeating it.