Here's a prediction I think that I can safely make: Everything you think will happen will not happen.
What's got me waxing profound is some inauguration reflection and the accompanying media doubts about Social Security (search) — we can't fix it — and tax reform (search) — we can't possibly have it.
But the consensus views, I think, are the wrong views. That's not me saying that. That's history proving that.
Think of the inauguration scene four years ago: Before September 11th, before going into Afghanistan, before going into Iraq.
The world was a very different place then and it's a very different place now. I shudder to think it will be a very different place four years from now.
History often is defined not by the things we think will happen, but the twists that invariably do happen.
Did anyone think at Richard Nixon's second inaugural that after a landslide victory he wouldn't make it 20 months in office? Or that Jack Kennedy wouldn't make it a thousand days? Or that Bill Clinton might not make it through his second term at all?
Just like so many argued that President Bush could never get a big tax cut through — let alone three of them. He did.
Just like those who said democracy couldn't come to Afghanistan. It did.
Or that bringing down Saddam would lead to quick stability in Iraq. It didn't.
I'm not smart enough to say we will get Social Security reform, or tax reform, or that Iraqi elections will go smoothly. But, after you to listen to all the naysayers, I want you to listen to history. Then, I want you to tell me which you'd rather listen to.
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