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By Bill O'Reilly
It pains me, pains me to tell you that I cannot make a prediction about tomorrow's vote. You know me. I'm a big mouth. But I really don't know what's going to happen.
However, I can call four states right now, Georgia and Alabama going for Romney; New York and Massachusetts for Obama. You can mark that down. Actually, I could call 40 states right now. Only 10 are in play at the moment. But I'm not going to be a total waffle guy this evening. I think Mitt Romney will win Florida. And if the Governor wins Ohio as well, he will be the next President of the United States. But that's a big if.
President Obama seems to have blunted Romney's momentum over the weekend. "Talking Points" predicted that would happen last week because of Hurricane Sandy and because the national media simply refuses to cover the Libyan situation.
So while Romney had momentum one week ago, the storm stalled it. And that's where we are tonight both candidates slugging it out, momentum for both somewhat subdued.
In just about four hours the good folks in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire will cast the first Election Day ballots. I love the Notch -- nature at its best up there. Romney will most likely carry the Notch but New Hampshire seems to be leaning Obama.
If President Obama loses the election, it will be because he could not convince Americans that his big government philosophy would improve the economy. Even though Mr. Obama has had trouble in other areas like Libya, it is the economy that has made this election a struggle for him.
The cold truth is, that the President has not improved the American economy. And if you are voting just on that, you will vote against him.
If Mitt Romney loses, it will be because he did not get his message out. Over the past three weeks of the campaign the Governor has played it very cautious. He did few meaningful interviews, relying on local campaigning in key states to put him over the top.
Both the President and the Governor will do interviews this evening on Monday Night Football. But so what? Those are cupcake events. They mean absolutely nothing. It's kind of sad that both candidates dodged forums that might have challenged them. Americans respect politicians who do answer the tough questions.
As you may know, "Talking Points" does not endorse political candidates, believing that you are smart enough to know for whom you want to vote. But it is my job to look out for you and for the country. So I will be blunt.
Voting for President Obama is very risky. He does not seem to be concerned about the $16 trillion debt and is not likely to cut government spending very much. Certainly possible the U.S. economy will pick up if he is re-elected. We have a powerful economic machine here. There is plenty of cash on the sidelines. And maybe if the President gets a mandate, things will improve, maybe. But just like in 2008, if you vote for Mr. Obama, you are voting on hope, not accomplishment.
Likewise Governor Romney. That is also a hope vote. But, his philosophy of robust capitalism seems to make a bit more sense than to continue massive government spending in order to stimulate job creation. On the downside, the Governor has not fully explained what programs he would cut and how he would keep the treasury afloat while lowering taxes.
But Romney did eliminate the deficit gap in Massachusetts while Governor and does have a lot of experience in economic matters, unlike the President.
That is, ladies and gentlemen, about as fair as I can make it. What I have just told you is beyond dispute.
On a personal note, I'm very disappointed in President Obama for dodging the questions about Libya, which he continues to do while the national press allowed Mr. Obama to avoid the Libyan subject, a local reporter in Denver confronted the President.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
9NEWS ANCHOR: Were the Americans under attack at the consulate in Benghazi, Libya denied request for help during that attack and is it fair to tell Americans that what happened is under investigation and we'll all find out after the election?
OBAMA: Well look, the election has nothing to do with four brave Americans getting killed and us wanting to find out exactly what happened.
9NEWS ANCHOR: Were they denied requests for help during the attack?
OBAMA: Well, we are -- we are finding out exactly what happened. I can tell you as I have said over the last couple of months, since this happened, that the minute I find ---found out what was going on I gave three very clear directives.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'REILLY: Unbelievable. The directives were not clear because the situation remains unresolved. And the President continues to dodge. Not telling us what he knows. To me, that's very disturbing. To me as an American.
Now as far as Governor Romney's chances are concerned, I believe wins in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia all states Barack Obama took last time around will happen. He will win those states. But the Governor also has to win Ohio and it is there problems arise. Because Ohio is a dead heat today according to a new Rasmussen poll.
I also think Romney could win in Colorado. But Obama looks to have Nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. Our pal Larry Sabato who teaches at the University of Virginia is predicting an Obama win, 290 electoral votes to Romney's 248 if Obama... if Obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right.
But Karl Rove sees it the opposite way. Mr. Rove will be here in a moment.
Of course Dick Morris continues to maintain that Romney will win big carrying Pennsylvania and Ohio, which would assure a Romney victory. Both Morris and Sabato will be on this program Wednesday.
Again, I cannot make a prediction tonight. It pains me. I don't like it. But I have to be honest. I can't do it because even at this late date, some Americans could still vote either way. Both candidates still have a fighting chance.
And that's "The Memo."
- You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: firstname.lastname@example.org.