• With: Dick Morris

    This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," October 31, 2012. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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    O'REILLY: "Campaign 2012 Segment" tonight, as you may know, Dick Morris predicting a big landslide for Mitt Romney even though, as we mentioned, a "New York Times" poll out today says the President will most likely win in three vital swing state.

    Morris, the author of the big new bestseller, "Here Comes the Black Helicopter"; he joins us now Dick Morris from Detroit.

    So you, I'm sure, repudiate the "New York Times" poll?

    DICK MORRIS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. And let me go through the numbers because it's important for people to get in.

    In Florida, the "Times" says Obama is going to win by one. But their sample has seven points more Democrats than Republicans. Pollster John McLaughlin and I went through the actual results of the last four elections and on average the Republicans had one percent more than the Democrats. So that poll is off by a factor of eight. So instead of Obama winning by one, Romney would win Florida by seven.

    In Ohio, Obama is shown as winning by five in the "Times" poll. But they had eight points more Democrats than Republicans. And historically there were only two points more D's than R's. So that's 6 points off. So, instead of Romney losing by five, he wins Ohio by one.

    And in Virginia they have Obama winning by two. But they have eight points more Democrats than Republicans and historically there is one point more Republican than Democrat. That's off by a factor of 9. Romney wins Virginia by seven.

    O'REILLY: All right. That's pretty much what Rove did on his little board.

    Now, here's my question. Can a pollster assume that all Democrats and all Republicans are going to vote for whoever is running in their party? Can you assume that --

    MORRIS: Yes, you can.

    O'REILLY: -- with any certainty.

    MORRIS: Yes, you can. You get about 90 percent voting for their party. So you can it's the Independents who split. What the "New York Times" is doing is they are taking a poll that probably is initially accurate. I'll bet that all three of those polls show Romney ahead. Then they are weighting up the number of Democrats.

    O'REILLY: You mean Obama ahead.

    MORRIS: Excuse me, Obama ahead.

    O'REILLY: OK. Because you have to be precise here. Start again. I want to be precise. I don't want to make any mistake. Start again.

    MORRIS: I'll bet that all three of those polls when they came out of the field the raw data showed Romney ahead. They are then giving more weight to the Democrats, less to the Republicans in order to mirror the turnout that, in fact, happened in 2008. Because they're assuming it will be the same turnout in '12.

    (CROSSTALK)

    O'REILLY: All right. So let me stop you. When they call up Hi Mildred, how are you doing? And they take it down. You say that Quinnipiac, which did the polling for the "New York Times", all right, The raw data, without any curve or anything like that, showed Romney winning in all three states -- Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. But then the boys came in and started to weight it up to 2008 levels?

    MORRIS: Correct.

    O'REILLY: OK.

    MORRIS: Correct.

    And if we had the same high black and Latino and young person turnout in '12 that we had in '08, those polls would be right.

    O'REILLY: OK. But you say --

    MORRIS: It's not going to happen.

    O'REILLY: Right. All the data says Republicans as we pointed out much more motivated and Obama --

    MORRIS: So what I'm doing --

    O'REILLY: Go ahead.

    MORRIS: So what I'm doing with John McGlocklin is we are not taking the one election of 2008. We are taking four elections -- '04, '06, '08 and '10 and we are averaging them and then we're weighting the data according to that average. And when you do that?

    O'REILLY: And that's all on your Web site, right? That's on your Web site?

    MORRIS: Yes.

    O'REILLY: People can see it on DickMorris.com?

    MORRIS: Yes.

    O'REILLY: OK.

    MORRIS: And when you average those you have Romney winning all three of those states.

    O'REILLY: You're standing by -- wait, Morris, wait. I only have a few minutes with you. So you are standing by your prediction of a Romney landslide?

    MORRIS: Absolutely. Romney will win this election by 5 to 10 points in the popular vote. And will carry more than 300 electoral votes.

    O'REILLY: All right. Now you know, Morris, I have you booked for one week from tonight. One week from tonight.