This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," August 2, 2012. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
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According to the Gallup poll people just 13 states are now approving the President Obama's job performance. And here they are: Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Washington, Illinois, Delaware and Minnesota. The other 37 states do not think the President is doing a good job. So how can he win re-election?
Joining us now from Washington Fox News analyst and radio talk show star Laura Ingraham. What are the odds in your opinion that President Obama gets re-elected in November?
LAURA INGRAHAM, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, Bill, I think if you look at like the Real Clear Politics average of all the polls, Obama is up slightly. I think it's like 2.8 percent or something like that today. And you look at where the money is going, I know you love my online gambling addiction but the money right now is about 59 percent for Obama and about 37 percent for Romney.
Now, a couple of things going on here. In the polls that you're citing those are all big time blue states. Right Delaware and my home state of Connecticut I mean, these are not going to go for Romney.
The interesting plays are always in the states like Nevada where Romney is actually up over Obama; Virginia where it's fairly dead even; down in Florida where Obama is up about two percent in the Real Clear Politics average.
But Romney, I believe his strength you are seeing in an odd way play out in what you just talked about in the previous segment which is this Chick-Fil-A controversy. Now Romney wasn't at Chick-Fil-A yesterday but I think what you're beginning to see is a -- is something of a silent majority coming forward and saying, you know, this has gotten out of hand the demonization of people. And we want to stand for something that is constitutionally-based; some of them there for marriage particularly others are there are just for free expression.
I think that enthusiasm you saw yesterday while not entirely political has some political meaning. And I think you're going to see that on Election Day with a huge enthusiastic turnout against kind of this redefining of major American institutions.
O'REILLY: All right so you -- but I'm a little confused here because you are -- you are the Vegas queen. And we all know that. You can go and see Ms. Laura at the blackjack table.
INGRAHAM: Thank you. Yes.
O'REILLY: But in Vegas the wise guys are betting big time that Obama is going to be re-elected.
INGRAHAM: They are.
O'REILLY: But you are saying, you seem to be saying no, you don't think that. That you think --
INGRAHAM: -- I don't.
O'REILLY: All right, so you think that in the end it might be a surprise for Romney, a big victory for Romney?
INGRAHAM: I think it -- I think it may be. And I'm not with Dick Morris who thinks this is going to be a big blow out. Should I -- do I believe it should be? Yes. But I think we've have had some time lost this summer on the part of the Romney campaign. I don't believe the foreign trip ended up rebounding to his benefit partly because the press will obviously go to the supposed gaffes and not focus on the great speech he gave in Poland. Talk about the real --
O'REILLY: Well, you're never going to get -- you're never going to get an accurate play on Romney from the press.
O'REILLY: Everyone knows that so you're going to have to basically go by what the people are feeling and you think that they are feeling uneasy about the direction of the country.
Now, interestingly enough in this Gallup rundown here, the states that matter the most, Florida, 46 percent approval of President Obama; Virginia 46; Nevada 45 and Ohio crucial, 44 percent.
With numbers like that it's almost impossible for the President to win. Yet in the CBS poll yesterday, I think it was CBS, Quinnipiac, "New York Times," they had the swing states gone.
O'REILLY: So it's a confusing morass right now.
INGRAHAM: It's -- it's very confusing. And Bill I remember you were tackling the Scott -- the -- the Wisconsin governor saga with the recall, right.
INGRAHAM: And remember, a lot of those polls were showing he was in trouble up into the very end. I really believe that a lot of these pollsters are trying to do their best. But sometimes they are over sampling like that old NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Over -- oversample Democrats and --
O'REILLY: And that's what they did yesterday in the Quinnipiac poll.
INGRAHAM: They did it again -- seven percent, something like that.
O'REILLY: Right, they over sampled.
INGRAHAM: So I -- so I think Romney needs to do. I think he needs to do a better job of framing himself as a forward-looking, substantive --
O'REILLY: Would you -- if you were Romney, would have you been out -- would you have been out at Chick-Fil-A today if you were Romney?
INGRAHAM: I would.
O'REILLY: That would have been unbelievable photo op. I think Romney -- here is what I think he should have done. I think Romney should have dressed up like the chicken. Had the little chicken thing --