This is a rush transcript from "The Journal Editorial Report," January 12, 2008.
PAUL GIGOT, HOST: This week on the "Journal Editorial Report," it's a fight for survival on the campaign trail as the candidates gear up for a wild January ride.
Is Tuesday's Michigan campaign do or die for Mitt Romney?
And what does John McCain need to do to sustain his New Hampshire mojo?
Plus, Barack Obama promised to inject a little punch in his politics of hope. But is he any match for a re-energized team Clinton?
Our panel weighs in after these headlines.
GIGOT: Welcome to the "Journal Editorial Report." I am Paul Gigot.
The rest of January will be a fight for survival for some presidential candidates following John McCain and Hillary Clinton wins in New Hampshire Tuesday. The remaining White House contenders now turn their attention to key nomination battles in Michigan, Nevada South Carolina and Florida, all of which are a prelude to the February 5th Super Tuesday vote in more than 20 states.
Here with a look at the issue and demographics at work in these up coming races is FOX's own Michael Barone, senior editor of U.S. News & World Report and author of "The Almanac of American Politics."
MICHAEL BARONE, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT & AUTHOR: Good to be with you, Paul.
GIGOT: You said the breakdown in vote between Obama and Clinton in New Hampshire was eerily similar to the breakdown in the vote between Gore and Bill Bradley in 2000. What does it tell you where the votes are coming from this time around?
BARONE: If you look at Hillary Clinton's consistency, like Al Gore 8 year as in New Hampshire it tends to be older, it tends to be more downscale, less well educated. It tends to be more ethnic. She carried the Catholic voters by a wide margin. This is the historically democratic group in New England where politics used to divided, Catholic, Democrats to Protestant, Republicans. It's almost precisely the same coalition that prevailed for Al Gore by four points in New Hampshire in 2000, by two points in Hillary Clinton. You can't take from her victory any assurance that sort of downscale, less well educated, older coalition is necessarily going to prevail.
GIGOT: But if it does prevail, it seems to give Hillary Clinton an advantage. What you are describing for Obama's electorate is very similar to the Democratic electorate that voted for Paul Tsongas, say, it's similar to Bradley and even Gary Hart, all of whom lost the nominations against their opponents.
BARONE: They did lose their nominations. If you go back look at some of the races it was not foreordained. Walter Mondale out campaigned Gary Hart and out spun him in the 1984 cycle. That could easily have gone the other way. Remember, Al Gore beat Bill Bradley in New Hampshire by four points. The reason Bradley withdrew was there were five weeks from New Hampshire to the next contest. Five weeks is an eternity in this cycle. You have Michigan voting seven days after New Hampshire and we have got the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina Republicans only four days after that.
GIGOT: You have been following poles for a long time. I have never seen them so wrong as they were in New Hampshire. Why do you think they were so off in the Democratic race?
BARONE: Number one, there seems to have been a significant late switch by woman voters. There was a much bigger discrepancy between the public opinion polls the telephone polls taken before the election and between the actual exit polls and the vote on Election Day.
Secondly, we could be seeing something of what some people call the Tom Bradley effect, which we used to see in the 1990s, where people said to pollsters they were voting for black candidates, for Tom Bradley for governor of California in 1982, Doug Wilder for governor of Virginia in 89, David Dinkins for mayor of New York in 89.
In fact, fewer people voted for their candidates than told pollsters. The thinking was, well you had to tell people — there was a feeling you ought to be voting for the black candidate, but when it came down to voting, they weren't doing so. That is possibly a factor in New Hampshire. That's among Democrats and a liberal part of the political spectrum.