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Bulls & Bears
This past week's Bulls & Bears: Gary B. Smith, Exemplar Capital; Tobin Smith, ChangeWave Research; Eric Bolling, FOX Business News; Pat Dorsey, Morningstar.com, and Marc Lamont Hill, PhD, Temple University.
Trading Pit: Gustav Gaining Strength… Is $5 on the Horizon?
Tobin Smith: If Gustav damages oil refineries ala Katrina, we will have 5 dollar gasoline in less than two weeks
Eric Bolling: This predicted Cat 3 hurricane could do severe damage to an infrastructure that is on shaky legs already. Of concern:
1) Oil rigs (near TX)
2) Gas rigs (LA coast) and refineries (TX - Houston region).
If there is no damage, oil goes down $15 bbl and gas down another 50cts. If there is damage, oil works toward $125 and we see pump jump over $4 again. I don't think Katrina like is possible given that Katrina was a surprise, and we have had 3 years to prepare for this day.
Pat Dorsey: Inventories for refined products have been worked off big time over the past few weeks...which means that if Gustav misses/fades, gas prices drift up. If Gustav hits - and it's headed right for Refinery Alley — there will be a big spike in gasoline..
Gary B. Smith: If it's really bad, prices spike and then drop back down. Invariably major price moves continue in the direction they've been heading — even if there is a blip — and that direction is DOWN.
McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden: Best Ticket for the Economy?
Gary B. Smith: The democratic ticket would be terrible for the economy: Obama is pretty much against free trade (which has helped our economy and others'), against outsize profits in oil (and who knows what other industries) which would inhibit them doing further expansion and development; is for income redistribution, even though the "haves" are the ones generating jobs and growth in our economy.
Tobin Smith: The most important long term economic issues after getting the mortgage mess cleaned up is ENERGY ENERGY ENERGY! IF Palin can put extra "umph" behind McCain's evolution on drilling in Alaska, America wins.
The second most important economic issue is keeping international trade growing; it has been responsible for 75 percent of GDP growth. Obama and Biden fail the smell test on free trade; they are union-loving job protectors.
Eric Bolling: McCain/Palin is the best ticket for the economy with both a clear energy and tax plan. Obama/Biden versions of both are unclear and could be really bad for consumers. The biggest drain on the consumer is, by far, gas prices. McCain/Palin ticket addresses oil and is the clear leader in the oil debate. They also want to keep taxes lower. So who wins? The consumer, and the consumer is 70 percent of the economy!
Will the Bulls or Bears Return From the Holiday Weekend?
Gary B. Smith: Bull: after the nice rip the market had in early August, all we're seeing is a conventional, low volume pullback, before the next leg UP. Right now there are no more surprises, except those to the upside!
Tobin Smith: Bear market continues. The bear case for stocks is: