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Bulls & Bears | Cavuto on Business | Forbes on FOX | Cashin' In
Bulls & Bears
This past week's Bulls & Bears: Pat Dorsey, Morningstar.com director of stock research; Scott Bleier, HybridInvestors.com president; Tobin Smith, ChangeWave Research; Bob Froehlich, DWS Scudder; Patricia Powell, Powell Financial Group, and Matt McCall, Penn Financial.
Trading Pit: Record 2nd Quarter Start for Stocks. Are the Bears the Team to Beat on Wall Street?
One for the record books! The best kick off ever for blue chips in the second quarter! And bad news not knocking the bulls off their game. Stocks shrugging off an ugly jobs report for a week of big gains. Does all this mean the bulls are the team to beat from here on out?
Tobin Smith: The bulls are in control NOW because — as I said a few weeks ago — we got a bottom in the financials. Now the market is seeing a bottom for the REST of stocks. The market has priced in a mild recession and IF in fact the recession that started in December 2007 lasts the 8-9 months of a typical recession, then we have a bottom. The crucial earnings season starts next week, and we'll see if lowered expectations are met or not. But you have to treat this as a bottom and make money in stocks; the move could last only 6 months if the Democrats get the presidency and retain the House and Senate.
Bob Froehlich: I wouldn't call the U.S. Equity market a "slam dunk" but I would call it a "lay-up". We have clearly hit the bottom and are going up from here. Interest rate cuts and tax refunds will take time. This recovery doesn't happen overnight but it will happen. Especially as we move toward the end of the year when two catalyst occur. First, the Presidential election will be over and that removes a major uncertainty. Second, the "earnings comparables" on a year-over-year basis will be so easy that anyone can beat them. Both of these are very bullish for our markets. Our biggest short-term risk is that we could see another financial services firm go under. If you are still looking for that investing "Slam Dunk" you get it by going global. As the U.S. is on the brink of a recession, the rest of the world is booming at almost 6 percent GDP. Go global.
Patricia Powell: A couple of weeks ago, I capitulated on the issue of recession... it seems inevitable. But what most people don't know is that you can have very strong market gains before the recession is over. I am cautiously optimistic for the next three months. You have the $160billion in rebate checks hitting this quarter; the positive impact of lower fed funds rates that will help homeowners who have mortgage/HELOC's resetting based on prime; and much of the bad news is known. (It is the bus you don't see coming that kills you!) If we don't lose too many jobs, I think we could move up as much as 1000 pts on the Dow by the end of the quarter.
Pat Dorsey: Stocks are very cheap, and financials are in the cheap basket. But keep some dry powder because we are going to get some more scary days. If you use those days to build you are going to be a happy camper years from now.
Scott Bleier: The failure of Bear Stearns was the moment of maximum stress for this crisis. The market had every opportunity to drop in a big way - but did not. There are plenty of doubters to this rally - and that is good. Individual investors should be buying every time the market gets scared and drops to the low end of the trading range. The bottom line is that I think we have seen the bottom for this cycle - as I have said before - and stocks should be bought not sold.
Forget About National Health Care; Is It Time to Nationalize the Airlines?
Flying? Chances are you'll pay a high fare to be late and lose your luggage. And this week we found out that more than one carrier could be skimping on safety by cozying up with regulators. Is now the time for the government to start running the airline industry?
Matt McCall: The government needs to take the airlines over! This is a flawed business plan. There are two major concerns: customer service and safety. The number one being safety; American Airlines had 10 windshields break on planes about to land. They knew about it and did nothing about it. You are not making money by not sticking up for the customer. Government has to step in and take care of this now!
Tobin Smith: The idea that the people who bring you the productivity of the IRS and Congress would be running an airline is funny. The biggest problem the airlines have is they need to merge. And they have to raise prices a bit so they can make a profit.
Scott Bleier: We built the airlines airports and give them air traffic control. We let them fly in the air for free! Other countries don't let you do that by the way.
Stock X-Change: Final Four Championship Stocks
It's the Final Four Stock Championship! The winning team and the winning stocks. We shoot, we score, right now in the Stock X-Change.
If you want to watch what each had to say about each stock, click here.
Tobin Smith: SunPower Corporation (SPWR)